On the other hand "generic unnamed democrat" is winning in all these states.

It's not just the culture war Biden really is just an exceptionally shitty candidate, just like hillary.

A bunch of people begrudgingly voted for him and he has actively done everything he can to piss off large portion of those voters, while acknowledging that fact and saying he doesn't give a fuck and isn't going to change anything.

He barely squeaked by and since has alienated anybody who cares about labor right, environmental protections, not supporting genocide, and is now actively kicking Muslims out of campaign events. All the while nobody can afford groceries or rent and anytime they bring this up a liberal pops up to call them an idiot and explain actually they're doing great thanks to bidenomics.

Any random asshole could beat Biden at this point by not actively antagonizing people they're supposedly relying on to vote for them.