No update today or tomorrow.
Links and Stuff
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Yesterday's discussion post.
There have been speculations that Russia is going for the full Novorossiya scenario where they incorporate the entirety of southern Ukraine into Russia. I don't know if they can do it militarily, if they keep moving at the current pace, it's going to be another hundred years's war.
If this happens, will Russia be able to hold all of Novorossiya? Unlike Crimea and the Donbass, these areas have a Ukrainian-speaking majority that would probably be against joining Russia and the western imperialist nations are going to funnel weapons into the conflict like crazy. Does this have the potential to be the forever war that drains Russia's resources that the US has hoped for all along, or will Russia be able to make peace in the new regions, despite western and Ukrainian opposition?
Looking at territory only is terminal mapbrain
The Ukrainian army is losing like 1k people per day and is out of professional soldiers, most of its formations have no mobility and are pinned down and will be encircled and besieged.
We are still in the phase of Russia massacring the Ukrainian army with artillery. Ukraine can’t keep standing in place forever, this is going to crack
Inb4 ghost of Kiev nukes Moscow
This is a big speculation imo. Ukraine is definitely going to be completely destroyed socialy and economically by this war and if most rational predictions are correct that Russia will at least retain their status as an economic power then it doesn't make much material sense to willingly choose to live and remain part of your bankrupt nation. Obviously during war time patriotism is extremely prevalent but who knows years from now?
Put this in another way, if Ukraine can't actualy provide any meaningful humanitarian let alone social and economic assistance to these areas then the only reason against joining Russia would be pure ideology and patriotism. Is that realy enough to convince hundreds of thousands of desperate poor people to remain part of Ukraine?
Russia is going to offer a large degree of social economic integration, just using the ruble and having some reasonable assurance that Russia is self sufficient in food and energy.
I also look at the millions of Ukrainian refugees currently living abroad and I imagine a significant amount would not return if they had a choice either.
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While it is true that materially the choice between Russia and Ukraine is a no-brainer I think one shouldn't underestimate the ability of Ukrainian nationalism to give Russian authorities a hard time in Novorossiya, especially when said nationalists are armed and funded by hostile powers. If Russia incorporates Novorossiya they will be committing themselves to a long-lasting anti-terror and anti-sabotage efforts that will require significant resources.
The border with the remaining part of Ukraine and NATO is going to require significant resources either way though. Washington will not let Ukraine make peace for a long time to come so Russia will have to deal with sharing a border with a hostile power.
I mean Russia already does anti-terror stuff
I agree about the nationalist fervor of the nazis, but if the question is does this favor applies to the average population even years from now then that is questionable.
Also I think now this argument is also unfortunately very similar to all the westoid arguments that Russia was making a mistake and Ukraine would inevitably become their own Afgnanistan war.
Realy when it comes to nazi terrorism I'd say even the west isn't particularly safe. The Azov in Mariupol are already all mad about being "deceived" by Kiev. I'd worry about the nazis eventually turning against the west in sort of a mafia protection scheme pay us or we will start seeing another MH 17 crash every week type deal.
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Come on dude, hundred years is too exaggerate. The west can't pump money and weapon forever, this is not 2 decade ago when the US is undisputed power and economy.
Yeah... I was being hyperbolic.
But then retreat from Chernigov/sumy is even more of a gamer move :shrug-outta-hecks: They are closest to moscow region, with direct tank drive they can be there in one day sans resistance.
I think everyone out of east could live with moscow rule, but more feasible would be separate puppet state. Ukrainians hate their government like everybody else, so if they sold them ukraine without the western part, and do whatever you like (also your porkies wold change), except fash symbolism and russian language bans - it could work. God knows, it’s the productive part of the country