We know that Mitch McConnell floated the idea of a nationwide abortion ban shortly after the leak happened.
We know that with Roe v Wade about to be gone, the Republicans will move forward with implementing a nationwide abortion ban the next time they have enough power consolidated to do it (i.e. a trifecta, where they control the House, Senate, and Presidency).
We know that Republicans are very well positioned in the 2022 midterms, and currently the projections are that they will regain both the House and Senate.
We know that Republicans are opposed to democracy and have no problem with disregarding election results that don't favor them. Assuming that they control the Senate and House in 2024, we can count on them doing this with any 2024 presidential election result that shows a Democratic victory.
So here's the most likely (basically guaranteed in my opinion) timeline we're looking at: the GOP takes the House and Senate in 2022, they steal the presidency in 2024 (assuming they don't just win outright), and then they ban abortion nationwide in 2025 or 2026.
Am I missing anything? Is there any compelling reason to believe that this won't happen?
Technically could a national prohibition also be unconstitutional? The hardcore originalists in all the courts could place an immediate injunction on enforcement because the prohibition isn’t in the constitution. They could try to ban it at the federal level but it could be tied up in courts since it was decided that it’s a “state’s rights” issue.
The courts are all controlled by the GOP now. They'll find a way to say it's constitutional.
Obama had 8 years to fill federal judgeships. Biden is filling empty seats at a record pace. There's always a judge they can find somewhere to declare something unconstitutional.
The only reason it's currently a constitutional right is because of the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. The upcoming overturn decision means the Supreme Court has decided that previous interpretation was incorrect, so the decision on abortion goes back to state legislatures.
It's already effectively banned in half the country. Texas has 6 clinics for the entire state of 28 million. Missouri has only 1.