No update today.

Somebody commented during my small break last week that I should try and insert breaks in, say, a day or so every week or two weeks, which I think I will try and do - though they might be irregular (i.e. on different days).

Happy International Day for Biological Diversity!

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Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can, thank you.

Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)

Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Yesterday's discussion post.

  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    ·
    3 years ago

    We Must Prepare for Putin’s Worst Weapons NYT

    Written by Mitt Romney.

    Russia’s foreign minister and its ambassador to the United States have both signaled that Russia’s debacle in Ukraine could lead to a nuclear strike. By claiming that Russia is readying its weapons, by warning of a “serious” risk of nuclear escalation and by declaring “there are few rules left,” they purposefully rattled the ultimate saber. Vladimir Putin himself has noted that he has weapons his opponents do not and that he will “use them, if needed.” Even the C.I.A. director, William Burns, has warned of the possibility that Mr. Putin could use a tactical nuclear weapon, even if there is no “practical evidence” right now to suggest it is imminent. Nevertheless, we should be prepared; the former secretary of state Henry Kissinger has argued that we should give the threat consideration.

    ...

    By invading Ukraine, Mr. Putin has already proved that he is capable of illogical and self-defeating decisions. If he loses in Ukraine, he not only will have failed to achieve his life’s ambition to reverse what he sees as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century — the collapse of the Soviet Union — but he will also have permanently diminished Russia as a great power and reinvigorated its adversaries. It is possible that Mr. Putin could face significant internal challenges to his leadership. In such a circumstance, he may be able to convince himself that the United States and the West are the reason he invaded Ukraine and that the propaganda he has deployed to justify this immoral invasion was true from the beginning.

    Some will conclude that to avoid provoking Russia — and thus avoid the prospect of a possible Russian nuclear strike — we should pre-emptively restrain Ukraine from routing the Russian military. We could limit the weapons we send, hold back on intelligence and pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to settle. I disagree; free nations must continue to support Ukrainians’ brave and necessary defense of their country. Failing to continue to support Ukraine would be like paying the cannibal to eat us last. If Mr. Putin, or any other nuclear power, can invade and subjugate with near impunity, then Ukraine would be only the first of such conquests. Inevitably, our friends and allies would be devoured by brazen, authoritarian nuclear powers, the implications of which would drastically alter the world order.

    Does NATO exist or not? Has Romney not seen the map of countries which NATO currently occupies? There's not a lot left for Russia to devour in Europe. Serbia, maybe? But they're friendly. Georgia is the only one that makes any sense at all due to South Ossetia.

    The right answer is to continue to give Ukraine all the support it needs to defend itself and to win. Its military successes may force Mr. Putin to exit Ukraine or to agree to a cease-fire acceptable to the Ukrainian people. Perhaps his control of Russian media would enable him to spin a loss into a face-saving narrative at home. These are the outcomes he would be smart to take. But if a cornered and delusional Mr. Putin were to instead use a nuclear weapon — whether via a tactical strike or by weaponizing one of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants — we would have several options.

    There are some who would argue for a nuclear response. But there is a wide range of options, and they need not be mutually exclusive. For example, NATO could engage in Ukraine, potentially obliterating Russia’s struggling military. Further, we could confront China and every other nation with a choice much like that George W. Bush gave the world after Sept. 11: You are either with us, or you are with Russia — you cannot be with both.

    Russia’s use of a nuclear weapon would unarguably be a redefining, reorienting geopolitical event. Any nation that chose to retain ties with Russia after such an outrage would itself also become a global pariah.

    Like after the US nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the US became a global pariah and was confronted on the world stage by all democracies.

    Some or all of its economy would be severed from that of the United States and our allies. Today, the West represents over half of the global G.D.P. Separating any nation from our combined economies could devastate it. The impact on Western economies could be significant, but the impact on the economies of Russia and its fellow travelers would be much worse. It could ultimately be economic Armageddon, but that is far preferable to nuclear Armageddon.

    The ruble is the strongest performing currency in the world right now.

    Together with our key NATO allies, we should develop and evaluate a broad range of options. I presume the president and the administration are already engaged in such a process. The potential responses to an act so heinous and geopolitically disorienting as a nuclear strike must be optimally designed and have the support of our NATO allies. Mr. Putin and his enablers should have no doubt that our answer to such depravity would be devastating.

    • SoyViking [he/him]
      ·
      3 years ago

      Even the C.I.A. director, William Burns, has warned of the possibility that Mr. Putin could use a tactical nuclear weapon, even if there is no “practical evidence”

      Russia is going to nuke the Ukraine! Source: Trust me bro.

      Russia is not going to nuke anybody. If they want a bomb with a big boom, conventional weapons can do as much damage as tactical nukes without the geopolitical shock value.

      Nukes are a deterrent that will only be used when the state itself is in danger. Everyone in Moscow and Washington knows that firing their nukes would mean the complete annihilation of both countries as well as of human civilization as such. As long as NATO doesn't do something incredibly stupid, Russian nukes will stay in their silos.

      There are some who would argue for a nuclear response. But there is a wide range of options, and they need not be mutually exclusive. For example, NATO could engage in Ukraine, potentially obliterating Russia’s struggling military.

      That's just a nuclear response with a few extra steps.

      Further, we could confront China and every other nation with a choice much like that George W. Bush gave the world after Sept. 11: You are either with us, or you are with Russia — you cannot be with both.

      And how exactly does he imagine China would react to such an ultimatum? The days of gunboat diplomacy are over. China knows that the US is their adversary and want to see them broken. At best China would tell the yanks to go fuck themselves, severing the US from the factories that produces not only the treats that westoids crave but also literally everything else from t-shirts to steel bridges. It would suck for China to lose US dollars but it would be completely devastating for the US to lose Chinese industry.

      Today, the West represents over half of the global G.D.P.

      How much of this is real stuff that has utility in the material world and how much of it is speculative financial bullshit? If you sever all financial ties the magic of the dollar is dispelled and a bushel of grain becomes infinitely more valuable than a billion dollars's worth of ape jpegs.

      Separating any nation from our combined economies could devastate it. The impact on Western economies could be significant, but the impact on the economies of Russia and its fellow travelers would be much worse. It could ultimately be economic Armageddon, but that is far preferable to nuclear Armageddon.

      Tell me how those sanctions are working out for you. German industry is preparing for gas rationing. If the gas supplies stops, German industry will stop as well and all of Europe will be thrown into recession. Britain is facing real food insecurity and poor Britons can't afford to heat their homes and rely on humanitarian aid for food. Europe is experiencing hyperinflation. Meanwhile Russians have fewer brands to choose from which admittedly disrupts the retail sector but ultimately they have more than enough food and energy to satisfy domestic demands and all the raw materials needed to produce nearly everything themselves.

      You want more ofthat?

      For fuck's sake. Why can't we at least be ruled by sane rational people who doesn't actively try to hurt us?

    • Huldra [they/them, it/its]
      ·
      3 years ago

      The only country to ever nuke people, and one of the few if not only to have an explicit first strike no provokation nuke policy, is rattling the saber about other nations having secret plans to nuke others.

    • barrbaric [he/him]
      ·
      3 years ago

      "But if [...] Putin were to instead use a nuclear weapon [...] by weaponizing one of Ukraine's nuclear power plants"

      WHAT THE FUCK DOES THAT EVEN MEAN?!?!? Rigging a nuclear plant to blow in an area they control and leaving it as a booby trap for Ukrainians when Russian forces retreat?

      As for the rest of the article, Mitt Romney should, of course, be hanged.