Links and Stuff
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Yesterday's discussion post.
I know it's silly, but I literally forgot that the Democratic Party in the US has been doing the Trump - Russia thing for four years. No wonder libs thirst for blood so hard now.
this could be one of the explanatory factors as to why trump's base is critical of NATO and apologetic of Russia regarding Ukraine; if the Dem media apparatus has successfully wed Trump to support of Russia across voting demographics then for Trump's support to remain substantial Russia can't be cast as a nation which threatens/weakens the US.
The future is post-Western Al Jazeera
It reminded me of Fanon's writing style when reading it; unsurprising, then, that the author quotes him in his tweet about the article.
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We need a global cultural revolution. A bringing to a sudden end this half-millennia long faith healing show where a perspiring West preaches humanistic values and economic prosperity while cutting holes in the pockets of an entranced colonised world.
We need not only an end to the world order set up by Western hegemony but an end to the appreciation of the West. We need the rage we feel after looking out at the charred remains of our earth under centuries of Western rule to mature into an act. The act of putting the West aside.
There must be an ushering in of a new day on earth where pulling our bodies, our lives, our lands back from the hammer-pry of colonialism is not deliberately misreported as “clashes” where white racists who deliberately hunt and deliberately kill Black elders in communities deliberately ruined by white racists are not immediately comfort-blanketed with reports of being “troubled”. Where our chanting to be allowed to live – and the inevitable procession of mourners come down upon by apartheid’s police forces – are no longer deliberately misframed as culture wars or intractable conflicts. This current chapter of Western-run human history must be flung shut.
We should have been more desperate for a post-Western world. A world where it is odd for white-skinned refugees to have every type of door flung open for them at the sight of their Primark shopping bags while it is routine for darker-skinned refugees to be force-fed toilet water in the American borderlands or sold on Libyan slave auction blocks.
Odd, reporters openly calling for guerrilla resistance against oppression in Ukraine while the killing of Black people whether by drone strikes in Yemen or by an American in a grocery store must be responded to with pacifism.
Odd. Not hypocritical. Unintelligible.
Dark-skinned refugees horsewhipped by American border agents in cowboy hats. Shot at by Europeans while on unseaworthy crafts sutured together with Hadiths and Psalms. Pointed at to explain resurgent Nazi sentiment. Ordered to let white people board first during evacuations. Referred to as crime waves and invaders while flaxen-haired refugees benefit from Fortune 500 company fundraisers, Airbnb programmes and win singing contests. Odd. Not hypocritical. Unintelligible.
It must be accepted now that the West, however mythologised, be it American-led “democracy” or classical “Western” political ideas, has proven that it does not have the necessary intellectual or political infrastructure to put down its perpetually rising Nazism. It has proven inadequate to the task of not harming the vast majority of humanity. Its ideas and institutions have proven incapable of destroying and ridding itself of colonial racism – if it is to be accepted that the project of the West is something other than the project of colonial racism.
The apologists will bring you Locke and Rousseau and protest that the West brought you life, liberty and the social contract. They are careful not to reveal that in the Atlantic Ocean of the fine print, sharks were learning to trail the slave ships, waiting like yelping dogs for the feast of live Africans dumped over the starboard side.
They will say we brought you the telegraph and the railway but will not mention the jokes they made at the indentured South Asians they sent to be mauled by lions in East Africa as they laid the tracks. Nor their hunting of families in Tasmania, nor the women abused at the Kamiti concentration camp accused, like the American “negress”, of subverting the aims of the settler state. They will say one-day delivery but say nothing about the suicide-prevention nets and the urine in driver’s bottles to keep up the pace.
Whatever it takes to leave racism and thus hatred of the vast majority of people on the earth behind, the Western world does not possess and will never possess. That alone disqualifies it from continuing any further.
And if we are wrong, if a non-racist enlightenment is indeed, for real this time, just around the corner, if it only takes a bit more patience as the liberal has promised since hansom cabs and the French Revolution then let us jump the gun. They are not the only ones allowed to be too hasty. Let us rid ourselves of association with the West, even if it is in error. Become too rushed, too reckless in our leaving it. Commit oversights. Forget to include the West in the vision of the future as if it were a slave in their declarations and charters and constitutions. Let us be dogs no longer satisfied to chase after the mechanical rabbit. Hang tomorrow. Arrest patience. White supremacists are not the only ones who get to make the world. The wretched of the earth can seize the reins and are free to crash the horse.
The West is kept in the breast pocket of every one-man race riot the colony provides with an AR-15. In a locket of every in-training genocidaire assisted by the algorithms of tech profiteers who look the other way as convincingly as the port cities of the triangular trade. Nudged along by a hate group accepted as a political party and the television personalities of a white nationalist media empire more impactful than all of the early 20th century lynch mob-inciting US newspapers combined.
Wherever there is a group touting Western civilisation and values an ethnic slur is not far behind. An unfairly graded Black student, a pogrom-preparing fascist club is not far behind. If that group praises the West as the champion of women’s rights, it will also lead the charge to end those rights. Where it celebrates Western humanism it will be the first to dehumanise. Values its secularism it will crusade. Western cosmopolitanism? Inclusivity? It will volunteer as border minutemen. Where it celebrates Western rationality and scientific advancement it will cling to biological determinism and the racial classificatory charts of the 1700s. “The West” is a Trojan horse for the racist.
The West is trafficked on the dark web and 8chan, Twitch and sung by all the new Nazi parties. Pounded at the lecterns of celebrity racist professors and top podcast hosts who are carried atop shoulders of incels who blame caricatures of “the Blacks” for their perceived lack of desirability instead of the stench of their expired worldview. Well, let there indeed be a “Clash of Civilisations”, or rather a clash of the Western traditionalists who hold that the colonised can be hurt with impunity and the anti-colonial world. The post-Western world. An insurrection of the good equipped not with open arms and listening, but rubbish bins.
It is time for putting aside the West. Abandoning the sycophantic enthralment with their architecture, croissants smeared with contraband West African chocolate, and end to lusting after their fashion brands. A devaluing of their political institutions as far as their political institutions have devalued our lives. Smash the crystal wine glasses, case the cello, drop the overvaluation of all things “European” so that its stock market crashes in a way that it can never recover.
A cultural revolution is not a sideline cause when Occidentophilia excavates mental and economic resources more efficiently than their mining corporations steal raw materials. When it fuels fascism and leads Indigenous libraries to a self-immolation that burns more brightly than a crop-dusting of agent orange. When it makes resistance hesitant.
The colonised’s admiration of the West is fatal. It seconds the white supremacists’ supremacism. Confirms for them that they are indeed right pulling our people from evacuation transport because they are superior. That their innocents’ deaths shall launch a thousand warships and ours a stern comment about how the right is mainstreaming extremist rhetoric. It affirms for the race “massacrist” in training that the West is indeed coveted and they are right to leave us dying in the streets, struggling in cuffs, or warehoused in prisons. It buoys every racist commenter that responds to the dishevelled migrants fleeing from colonial violence with “if we are so bad why are people crossing our borders”. It tells them it is indeed the moral superiority of the West that we are running to. Not the ruins of imperialism. Not the wars they have implanted, cultivated and nurtured. The forests they’ve set alight.
“Now, comrades, now is the time to decide to change sides … We must abandon our dreams and say farewell to our old beliefs and former friendships. Let us not lose time in useless laments or sickening mimicry. Let us leave this Europe which never stops talking of man yet massacres him at every one of its street corners, at every corner of the world.”
Now. Now is the time. Now at the junction of the climate’s end and the unlimited takeover attempts their liberal governments grant fascists. When Congolese are killed after Western traffic stops, when the Congo is killed by Western mining corps, it is full passed the time. When their most reputable papers misrepresent the killing and the funeral of a journalist. When our people are killed for existing. It is time.
They cannot quit colonialism. Leave this West. Let us see if we cannot build a world on mangos and abolition.
This is nothing short of beautiful. Inspiring. And so fucking true.
This guy is one hell of a writer. He'll be on my radar from now on
It must be accepted now that the West, however mythologised, be it American-led “democracy” or classical “Western” political ideas, has proven that it does not have the necessary intellectual or political infrastructure to put down its perpetually rising Nazism. It has proven inadequate to the task of not harming the vast majority of humanity. Its ideas and institutions have proven incapable of destroying and ridding itself of colonial racism – if it is to be accepted that the project of the West is something other than the project of colonial racism.
A Fuckin Men!
I will be taking a break tomorrow, but will still post the next update and perhaps comment a few pertinent articles.
They’re never happy, are they? Russia is either acting too quickly, or too slowly.
Always :parenti-hands:
"Russia is losing" is quickly becoming the new "the walls are closing in on Donald Trump" for me.
It's not that I don't necessarily reject the possibility, but the longer I hear it the less likely an outcome it is.
Well Russia no longer seems to be winning in quite the same way they were right out of the gate. As it turns out an insurgent force armed by the leading weapons manufacturers can be fucking tough. I mean the US got it’s ass handed to it by dudes in the mountains with decades old soviet tech and some ingenuity. They’re giving these guys the real shit
I don't know if I would agree with your idea of operational depth being more sophisticated making models more complex doesn't necessarily yield better results, models should reflect the need of in this case what the army is doing.
That said I do think there is a big comparison to WWII to be made here, this isn't 1:1 but both sides have adopted tactics from the two armies with the russians favouring these probing attacks and now looking to encircle several ukranian fortifications, in that same vein the ukranians have been incredibly inflexible and have focused on not giving up ground and choosing to stay in bad positions over retreating to more advantages ground but giving that area up, which is similar to what the Wehrmacht did. So I wouldn't call this a showdown between NATO doctrine and soviet doctrine.
I don't think that's likely tbh, I think if the uaf was directed by NATO commanders they'd have given up their more vulnerable positions and gone for a more flexible approach and you wouldn't have this problem right now with several looming encirclement because of their "No ground given" approach. I think it's more likely that they are being commanded by the government to not give any ground because that makes them look bad because they need it to either get more arms or so they have an easier to time leave and a more than willing officer cadre that has a lot of fascists whose ideology lines right up with that command.
If you are NATO you'd want to play for time as much as possible so that your weapons can reach Ukraine and also so you can train those troops with those weapons. Standing your ground does the exact opposite even ignoring the russian army being able to push through if your line is able to hold completely you'd force a confrontation which means soldiers die and you use up way more of your equipment which you can only replace so fast.
I don't think they're directly controlled by NATO, and their troops with the most training in that regard were also likely to be some of the highest lost units. That said, they have definitely been getting training and advice from western powers.
Unfortunately, as their better troops and officers get ground up, their conscript force becomes less capable. Current western doctrine places a lot of reliance on the competence, confidence, and initiative of the lower end of command (read: closer to the troops), which once you start chewing into your 30-50 year olds is probably not going to be there. This especially is required to perform an orderly retreat from a highly entrenched position (less experienced/trained units will feel safer in their trench networks and bunkers than a risky retreat over open highways etc and attempting to prepare new positions).
This is in addition to the desire not to give ground to Russia from the leadership, which is perfectly natural from a few angles. There's also the propaganda of "who holds more territory".
The politics of who really controls the army has been up in the air for a long time in Ukraine, and I imagine that question could be asked at each level with jockeying between the government and the nationalists, in between which any NATO advisors might have a rough time navigating and asserting any real advice.
EDIT: This isn't to say that ordered retreats and delays and spoiling attacks can't happen, it's just they're probably going to happen way less than one would expect.
As it turns out an insurgent force armed by the leading weapons manufacturers can be fucking tough.
This war could turn into an insurgency vs counter-insurgency type of conflict at some point, but as it stands now, the fighting in Ukraine much more resembles trench warfare of the type found on the eastern front in WW2, rather than what the US found in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Which, don't get me wrong, the western weapons Ukraine is getting are certainly blunting Russia's offensive capabilities. But there's a relatively clear cut frontline, and the fact that the Ukrainians are fighting from fixed defensive fortifications means that the Russians have the ability to sit back and hammer Ukrainian positions with artillery and airstrikes in a way that the US was very rarely able to do in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Biden Is Missing an Opportunity to Put Pressure on Iran, by Bloomberg
Every famine is an opportunity for America.
Having trained two generations of Iranians to performatively chant “Marg bar Amrika” at every opportunity, the country’s hardline leaders might now wonder about the wisdom of making the call for death to hate figures a national reflex. Cries of “Marg bar Putin” at recent demonstrations in Tehran against the invasion of Ukraine must have been embarrassing for a regime that regards the Russian leader as an ally.
America would never have figures trying to rile up the populace into wanting war and death in Iran, and especially not by creating songs about it.
But that is nothing compared with the discomfort caused by chants of “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to Raisi” now ringing out at protests across the country. As demonstrations against rising prices of food and fuel have turned political, more Iranians are directing their rage at Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi.
Having exhausted their standard excuse that US sanctions are to blame for everything that ails Iran, the clerics have quickly moved on to their usual Plan B: Killing and jailing protesters and imposing internet blackouts on cities where demonstrations have broken out. But as yet, neither the brutality nor the government’s offer of $14 monthly cash handouts for the neediest families has quelled the upheaval.
So they can't blame sanctions for the hardship of Iranian citizens, but also sanctions are meant to force authoritarian countries to kneel under extreme pressure?
There is every chance the protests will grow, along with the prices of essentials: A prolonged drought is increasing Iran’s need for grain imports just as two major suppliers, Russia and Ukraine, are locked in a war. The regime will likely ratchet up the repression, just as it did in the fall of 2019, when it stamped out demonstrations against fuel price increases by killing hundreds of protesters.
In normal circumstances, this would be an opportunity for the US to ramp up pressure on the regime in Tehran by turning the sanctions screw while holding out the lever of food aid. But the Biden administration has been doing the opposite, letting Iran flout sanctions with impunity while the State Department offers lip service to Iranians’ “rights to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression.”
The war in Ukraine has given Iran a windfall in oil revenues — the very thing sanctions were meant to prevent — almost entirely from exports to China. Raisi has boasted that exports have doubled since last summer, and his budget for the next fiscal year projects export revenues to rise by a third.
Iran’s oil exports are carried through crude subterfuge: Oil tankers turn off their transponders to conceal their routes or transfer their cargo en route to other ships. A US administration paying close attention would easily see through such deception; professional tanker trackers routinely use satellite imagery to spot vessels that have gone dark.
But the Biden administration has chosen to look the other way. In part, this is because the US president had made a priority of reviving a 2015 nuclear deal struck between Iran and the world powers and effectively rescinded by his predecessor. The administration was willing to cut the Iranians some sanctions slack in the hope they would be more amenable to returning to the terms of the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
America broke the deal.
Tehran was happy to take the sweetener, but offered no concessions in return. It has continued to enrich uranium to dangerous levels and build its stockpile. To date, it refuses to even let the Americans back to the JCPOA negotiating table.
America broke the deal!
The war in Ukraine has given the Biden administration another excuse to disregard Iran’s sanctions-busting exports: Shutting them down would have a deleterious effect on oil prices. With sanctions now imposed on Russia, a major oil exporter, and the likes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates refusing to raise their own output to fill the gap, prices have soared. Although Biden has dipped into the U.S. strategic reserve, Americans are paying high prices for gas at the pump.
There could be one other consideration for Biden’s reluctance to squeeze Tehran: Cutting off Iranian supplies might antagonize Beijing, and he is hoping China’s President Xi Jinping, who has for the most part backed Russia in the war, will help persuade Putin to end it.
There is little indication that Xi will do anything of the sort. But the Chinese are doing Biden a different kind of favor, albeit unintended. With Russia now needing alternative buyers for the oil it can no longer sell to the West, China is capitalizing on the heavily discounted prices. Russian oil is the more attractive because it doesn’t need to travel halfway around the world to reach China, as Iranian crude must. As a result, Iranian supplies to China have fallen in recent weeks.
This ought to free up Biden to end the long grace period he has allowed Iran and get serious about imposing sanctions on its exports. If Tehran won’t come to terms over the JCPOA, there is no sense in allowing the regime to fill its coffers.
AMERICA BROKE THE DEAL! Literal fucking blood-sucking vampire ghouls.
Respect, I hate aa as an org, but I need something in my life that doesn't say drink all the time.
Partially a function of ~2/3 of the map being barely involved in the fighting and thus the area being fought for being smaller and thus territorial gains seeming insignificant, and partially a function of Wikipedia not including reported Russian gains until well after they occur.
Partially a function of ~2/3 of the map being barely involved in the fighting
I'd add that it's also a function of just the size of the units involved in the fighting - it's very far from WW2 engagements where you could pass a couple 10,000s of soldiers into a newly formed breakthrough position and exploit it. Probably can't really do that with 200,000 or so Russian sodliers engaged all over the place there. Was hoping that Popasna would be bigger, now it's down to a lull again after 2 days? Was is like this in Operation Bagration? Don't know, but probably not lol
the push near popasna and from the other side of the salient is still going, but i wouldn't expect the russians to totally encircle the northern front. they're going to try and pull off a cauldron - and they've put the northern front in a bad position already regarding supply. there's really no need for the russians to move quickly on that front when they can safely bombard ukrainian positions with long range artillery. why spend lives when you can spend shells?
Well Russian warfare. Lots of attrition, artillery and deep strategic strangulation
The main feature of Dipshittery and Cope today is an article by a Brazilian journalist who is taking on the pro-Russian tankies in Brazil and abroad, and, I gotta say, it's very convincing.
Also, anybody else noticed a serious decline in the number of "Russia is incompetent and is losing" articles lately?
In-thread copy.
Economically
Europe
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Russia cuts off Finland gas flows over payment dispute Al Jazeera
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Emergency plans to stop food crisis as biggest rail strike in modern British history looms Telegraph
Rail bosses are drawing up emergency plans to stop what is expected to be the biggest rail strike in modern history leaving supermarket shelves empty and petrol pumps dry.
Union barons are plotting to unleash chaos in an effort to block plans for thousands of maintenance jobs to be cut and secure double-digit percentage pay rises for their staff.
The Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT) union is midway through a ballot for strike action of workers at train operators and Network Rail, with voting due to close on Tuesday.
Switching to transporting freight by road is not an option because of the shortage of lorry drivers.
- The Tory Guide to Surviving the Cost of Living Crisis Naked Capitalism
According to Lee Anderson, if you’re facing food poverty and having to rely on food banks, it’s probably because you don’t know how to cook. The Ashfield MP, who earns £84,144 a year, told the Commons that food banks are unnecessary in the UK, and that the main reason why people on lower incomes are struggling to afford food is because they lack cooking and budgeting skills. “You’ve got generation after generation who cannot cook properly. They can’t cook a meal from scratch. They cannot budget.” Anderson went on to claim that nutritious meals only cost 30p a day.
... safeguarding minister Rachel Maclean has cracked the cost of living crisis. The solution, Maclean says, is to earn more. Easy! Why are people wasting time choosing between heating and eating, when they could just take on more hours or better yet, get a higher-paying job? “Over the long term, we need to have a plan to grow the economy and make sure that people are able to protect themselves better, whether that is by taking on more hours or moving to a better-paid job,” she told Sky News.
Simple enough. Maclean would know, before becoming an MP, she workedin Hong Kong, Sydney and Tokyo with HSBC, then set up Packt Publishing Ltd with her husband. The IT publishing company reportedly recorded £1.8m operating profits in 2020. And last year, on top of her £84k salary as an MP, Maclean reportedly claimed more than £213,000 in expenses. The average claimed by MPs is £203,000.
Our next top budgeting tip comes from the environment secretary, George Eustice. When Sky News asked what advice he would give to people who want to have a family Sunday roast with a chicken but can’t afford it, Eustice suggested that shoppers should buy supermarket own-brand products. “Generally speaking, what people find is by going for some of the value brands rather than own-branded products – they can actually contain and manage their household budget.”
Lastly, we have some stellar housing advice for young people from Tory MP Jackie Doyle-Price, who thinks we should all make use of our granny annexes, the self-contained flats we all have just off of our main homes.Speaking in the Queen’s Speech debate, Doyle-Price told MPs that the government should be “encouraging people to make better use of their housing asset for the whole of their family”. “We can incentivise granny annexes, we can make sure that young people have got some hope by having greater access to the wealth in their parents’ home.
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The declining euro could worsen inflation so the ECB should push rates higher, German finance minister says BusinessInsider
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Europe is determined to cut fossil fuel ties with Russia, even though getting Hungary on board won’t be easy The Conversation
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Rouble hits 2015 level against euro as EU prepares to pay for gas Reuters
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Russian Oil Revenues Soar Despite Sanctions OilPrice
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Italy’s Oil Imports From Russia Quadruple Since February TeleSUR
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EU Faces Same Hurdles Over Tariff On Russian Oil As With Embargo OilPrice
The European Union is unlikely to reach a unanimous decision on the idea the U.S. has floated for cutting Putin's oil revenues—a tariff on Russian oil, a senior official told Argus on Friday.
- Sanctions Force Foreign Executives At Rosneft To Quit OilPrice
European-born executives at Rosneft quit the Russian oil giant days before the EU sanctions banning European citizens from working at the state-held Russian firm entered into force, Reuters reported on Friday, quoting six sources with knowledge of the matter.
- 'I can’t see the light': War fuels surging prices in Europe ABC
Public works projects in Italy are grinding to a halt just as the European Union is injecting 108 billion euros ($114 billion) in pandemic recovery money meant to launch a construction frenzy.
The war has accelerated inflation across Europe and the world, with prices for energy, materials and food surging at rates not seen for decades. It's causing sticker shock at the grocery store, gas pumps, electricity bills and construction sites.
Fishmongers and farmers are being forced to charge prices for their catch and crops that even they see as astronomical. High fuel prices threaten to paralyze ground transport of goods. Bread prices are soaring from Poland to Belgium. Protests over price hikes have erupted in places like Bulgaria. While governments have responded with tax cuts and other aid, they face limits in easing the impact of volatile energy markets.
Even the thrifty, with backyard hens, are wondering if the price of feed is worth the eggs they yield. Alina Czernik, a shop assistant in Warsaw, does the math, as she sees prices of grain for her hen go up 150%, to 200 zlotys ($45) per 100 kilograms (220 pounds).
"I have to tighten my belt. I buy fruits and vegetables so my kids have everything, but I don’t touch it," she said.
Add to that: The war in Ukraine has blocked exports of raw materials like steel and minerals that kept western Europe humming, as well as commodities like grains and seed oil, accentuating global shortages.
Inflation is running especially hot in central and Eastern European countries nearest the battlefields of Ukraine. Prices in April rose 14.2% in the Czech Republic, 12.3% in Poland and 10.8% in Greece. They're an eye-popping 61% in Turkey, which saw its currency lose 44% of its value against the dollar last year.
“Even in (the affluent district of) Cankyaya, people are no longer buying according to their needs, but according to what they can afford. Those who bought two kilos of ground beef are now buying a kilo at the most,’’ he said.
It goes on like this.
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EU steps up action to strengthen EU defence capabilities, industrial and technological base: Towards an EU framework for joint defence procurement EU Reporter
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Commission presents plans for the Union's immediate response to address Ukraine's financing gap and the longer-term reconstruction EU Reporter
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France's crop yields will be 'very poor' due to unprecedented drought France24
Asia and Oceania
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While other countries back away from Russian oil, China senses an opportunity to stock up on the cheap Fortune
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China needs Russian coal. Moscow needs new customers CNN
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China slashes key interest rate as housing sales collapse CNN
The central bank's decision to slash the five-year rate is the latest in a series of steps that China has taken to tackle a real estate crisis as Covid lockdowns threaten to push the economy into its first quarterly contraction since early 2020.
Sales of new homes plunged 47% in April from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this week, while prices in 70 cities dropped for an eighth consecutive month.
- China Insists Party Elites Shed Overseas Assets, Eyeing Western Sanctions on Russia WSJ
China’s Communist Party will block promotions for senior cadres whose spouses or children hold significant assets abroad, people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing seeks to insulate its top officials from the types of sanctions now being directed at Russia.
The ban, outlined in an internal notice by the party’s powerful Central Organization Department, could play a role in Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s efforts to increase his influence at a twice-a-decade leadership shuffle scheduled for later this year.
Issued in March, the directive prohibits spouses and children of ministerial-level officials from holding—directly or indirectly—any real estate abroad or shares in entities registered overseas, the people said.
Senior officials and members of their immediate families would also be barred from setting up accounts with overseas financial institutions unless they have legitimate reasons for doing so—such as study or work—the people said.
It isn’t clear if the rules apply retroactively, but family members of some senior officials have sold shares in overseas companies in order to comply, the people said. It isn’t known if the directive will be made public.
Economically 2
The directive came as Mr. Xi seeks to minimize geopolitical risks for the Communist Party amid concerns that officials with overseas financial exposure could become a liability if the U.S. and other Western powers impose sanctions against Chinese leaders and their relatives, similar to what was done against Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the people said.
Middle East
- Scorched earth: How a decade of war destroyed Syria’s farmlands MEE
Cluster bombs, mines and other remnants of war are a daily danger for Syrian farmers, as well as leaving a toxic legacy that could contaminate the soil for decades.
In rebel-held northwestern Syria, damage caused by Russian and Syrian government forces means the farmlands of Ahmed al-Amin and his neighbours are no longer suitable for cultivation.
“A Russian ballistic missile fell last month, destroying olive trees that are about thirty years old,” al-Amin told Middle East Eye from his home in Jabal al-Zawiya, in the south of Idlib province.
“Indiscriminate shelling has swept away the soil, making farmlands rocky and unfit for agriculture. The farmlands are filled with remnants of war. Perennial trees have been cut down after being hit by shrapnel that spoiled their fruits,” he said.
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Pakistan holds bailout talks with IMF in Qatar as economy falters Al Jazeera
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Iran, Azerbaijan stress expansion of energy ties TehranTimes
North America
- One of the nation's largest defense contractors just donated tens of thousands to lawmakers voting on Ukraine defense legislation BusinessInsider
One of the nation's largest defense contractors spread more than $51,000 in contributions among members of Congress and partisan political committees in April as lawmakers debated sending a new round of weapons and other military aid to Ukraine, according to a new filing with the Federal Election Commission.
The contractor, Raytheon Technologies, donated to more than 30 members of Congress' campaigns, as well as several leadership political action committees and national party committees.
The weapons supplier also in April donated $15,000 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee and $2,500 to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat from California.
Beyond campaign contributions from its PAC, Raytheon Technologies spends millions of dollars each year directly lobbying the federal government, including Congress, over policy and regulatory matters. During the first three months of this year alone, Raytheon spent nearly $3.5 million on federal-level lobbying efforts, according to federal data compiled by nonpartisan research organization OpenSecrets.
Meanwhile, 20 federal lawmakers have personally invested money in Raytheon Technology or Lockheed Martin stock, which has nearly doubled in value since the stock market crash of March 2020.
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Fannie Mae says a recession is likely to hit next year, and it could hit the housing market too Fortune
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Omar Leads Charge Against Baby Formula Monopolies Amid US Shortage CommonDreams
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Amazon Says It Complies With International Labor Standards. It Absolutely Does Not. Jacobin
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U.S. Natural Gas Prices Fall As Colder Weather Approaches OilPrice
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Permian Drillers Lead The Charge As Rig Count Climbs OilPrice
The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 14 this week, on top of the 9 rig increase in the week prior, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.
The total rig count increased to 728 this week—273 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021 and the highest count since March 2020. Drilling has picked up substantially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, adding 78 rigs.
- Americans Drive More Than Pre-Covid Despite Record Gas Prices OilPrice
Americans are driving more this year than in the same period in 2019, the last ‘normal’ year before COVID, despite the fact that U.S. gasoline prices have been soaring and hitting records every day in the past week, data from the Federal Highway Administration show.
- The Rapidly Growing Starbucks Union In Numbers Popular Resistance
Based on current filings alone, the Starbucks Union is already on track to have 6,400 workers at 230 stores.
South America
- Can Venezuela Help Lower Gasoline Prices? OilPrice
A month ago, the United States was said to look to Venezuela–sitting atop the world’s largest oil reserves–for additional oil, but it was rumored to come away empty-handed. Now, the United States is granting Chevron a license to negotiate with PDVSA to strike up oil deals. Venezuela’s heavy oil is perfectly suited for many American refineries. It is likely to be just the first of many steps in lightening up sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry, and as many as 400,000 bpd of oil could be added to global supplies if sanctions were relaxed.
- Bolsonaro Moves Forward With the Privatization of Eletrobras TeleSUR
Global
- From burgers to breakfast cereal, some key ingredients are being hit by food export bans — industry experts tell us what might be next BusinessInsider
Heatwaves, poor harvests, supply-chain bottlenecks and disruption from war in Ukraine have sent food prices soaring this year. In response, a number of countries around the world have imposed export bans in order to protect their own national food supply, which has only added to the problem.
It's not the first time the world has suffered from an agricultural commodity price shock. Food inflation was a problem from 2007 to 2008 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, where countries like Ukraine and other major grain exporters banned supplies to defend domestic prices. India and Vietnam, the biggest exporters of rice, also restricted imports to fight soaring food prices.
A similar situation is playing out now, where Ukraine again has halted wheat exports, in part because war will almost certainly disrupt the planting of the new crop this year. Indonesia has placed a blanket ban on the export of palm oil, and Argentina has blocked certain beef cuts.
- BRICS-led New Development bank to set up regional office in India Reuters
New Development Bank (NDB), established by the BRICS group of emerging economies, said on Friday it would set up a regional office in India for funding and monitoring infrastructure projects in that country and Bangladesh.
NDB has so far approved 21 Indian projects, involving funding of $7.1 billion.
The multi-lateral development bank, launched by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in 2015, expanded membership last year to include Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Uruguay.
The Shanghai-headquartered lender has signed off on more than 80 projects in the five original member countries. The value of the projects exceeds $30 billion and they are in sectors from transport, water and sanitation to clean energy and digital and social infrastructure.
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Inflation? IMF chief warns you better get used to it Fortune
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How soaring inflation can be particularly harmful for young people The Conversation
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Stagflation Is Looming, Right? Wrong, Economists Say Bloomberg
That's understandable amid a stock market rout and when so many prominent commentators, including former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and former Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein, have predicted resurgent inflation and now say recession is increasingly likely. They’re not impressed that US gross domestic product has rebounded from the Covid-19 shock at the fastest pace in modern times, overtaking its pre-pandemic high of $21.4 trillion. Nor are they relieved by the fact that the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of prices, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Price Index, is nowhere near replicating the runaway scourge of the 1970s despite rising the most this year since 1983.
Yet prophecies of imminent stagflation are drowning out a countervailing consensus among savvy economists, who see the US growing through 2024 as inflation subsides to a third of its current 8.3% rate. Seventy-seven economists contributing to Bloomberg predict that US GDP will outperform the Group of Seven developed nations during the next three years. All 56 economists who provide quarterly forecasts not only see steady growth over seven consecutive quarters but also the absence of a contraction. The US unemployment rate, which has recently improved the most in its history by falling to 3.6% — almost the lowest level in five decades — from a 2020 high of 14.7% is poised to reach 3.5% in the third quarter and remain low for several years. That would make the US the second-lowest in joblessness among the G-7 nations after Japan, according 50 economist forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.
Additionally, the economists put the probability of a recession at 30%, up from 15% at the end of January but not historically remarkable.
Diplomatically
Involving Ukraine or Russia
- As Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Stalls, Critical Voices Emerge in Moscow WSJ
For the sake of balance, I won't put this in Dipshittery, but I would like to note that the WSJ has only found four people with "critical" voices, and they aren't exactly calling for Putin's head on a spike.
Europe
- Germany's intelligence chief warns spying has surged to Cold War levels as Russia wages war against Ukraine BusinessInsider
"In a world of open hostilities and drastic sanctions, the inhibition threshold for espionage, sabotage, and illegitimate influence will continue to fall," Haldenwang warned.
Collectively, the US and Europe have expelled hundreds of Russian diplomats and officials since the war in Ukraine began, accusing many of those made to leave of operating as spies under diplomatic cover. Russia has responded by expelling Western diplomats.
- UK in talks to arm Moldova RT
The UK is in active discussions to ship weapons to Moldova – a country located along Ukraine’s southwest border – according to Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who said the arms could help to fend off a future Russian attack.
Speaking to the Telegraph in an interview published on Friday, the cabinet minister claimed Moscow has “ambitions to create a greater Russia,” suggesting it could next set its sights on Moldova, which contains the Russian-speaking breakaway region of Transnistria.
“I would want to see Moldova equipped to NATO standard. This is a discussion we’re having with our allies,” Truss said, though she did not elaborate on what kind of arms were being considered. She deemed Moldova a “vulnerable” state, again alleging a “broader” threat posed by Russia.
Asia and Oceania
-
Is Bangladesh heading toward a Sri Lanka-like crisis? DW
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How LGBT+ Communities Overcame Japan’s 2011 Triple Disaster The Diplomat
The past decade of research shows that LGBT+ people are more vulnerable than the general population during a disaster, due to a number of factors. For example, in a disaster, while all women face a higher likelihood than men of being assaulted or harassed, for transgender people this number is many times greater. Being forced to choose between a men’s or women’s bathroom in an emergency shelter can exacerbate this issue, making trans people stand out in ways that are highly traumatic and unwanted.
Even seemingly straightforward processes of evacuation can create traumatic experiences for LGBT+ people. Because many LGBT+ families may not have access to full legal recognition for their relationships, depending on the laws in place where they live, they may not be considered family in an emergency. This means that they face the threat of being separated during evacuation processes that prioritize opposite sex couples and their biological children as a family unit.
LGBT+ communities also tend to have more difficulty accessing information in a crisis. For example, youth in this community are more difficult to reach in an emergency because of their higher rates of homelessness compared to other young people. Seniors in the community also are more likely to be isolated and less likely to have family support, and therefore can have difficulty accessing resources or receiving emergency messages.
During Japan’s 2011 catastrophe, local LGBT+ people quickly realized that they could not rely on inclusive considerations like gender neutral single stall bathrooms during the mass evacuation. Both bathrooms and temporary bathing facilities set up by the Japan Self-Defense forces were typically divided in binary fashion: men on one side, women on the other. This alienated people who did not identify strongly with either of those gender categories.
In the emergency period, Azusa and other members of the Tohoku LGBT+ community began identifying which of their community’s needs were not being met, and then pooling resources in order to develop their own strategies to take care of themselves.
In just one example, a gay man in the community recognized that only offering men’s or women’s bathing facilities presented a potentially problematic blind spot in the existing disaster response. Because he was lucky enough to have running hot water, he took it upon himself to open his home to strangers in the queer and trans community who wished to avoid the gender binary of existing facilities.
Others, like Azusa, developed message boards with targeted information about where to access supplies such as sanitary napkins and gender-appropriate undergarments, even going so far as to personally deliver those supplies to shelters along the coast where they were needed but not readily available to gender-diverse people.
Some of these activities gave way to in-person meetings and groups gradually began holding regular check-ins, eventually organizing fundraising activities and even creating inclusive disaster planning handbooks and other awareness-raising resources for inclusive disaster planning. Their creative response to their community’s vulnerability means that people in other locations can learn from these experiences, in many places throughout Japan and the world.
Middle East
- Non-binary in Iraq: ‘People get killed’. A short video by the BBC
Being non-binary doesn't break any laws in Iraq, but those who are still live in fear. Every day people across the LGBTQ community there face physical violence or even being murdered if their secret is uncovered. Sexual assaults are also common, and the toll on their mental health is severe.
If you're non-binary, transgender or gay in Iraq then life is difficult and dangerous. In a society that sees itself as modest, traditional, and deeply religious, many still refuse to believe in anything other than heterosexuality.
- Iran moves ahead with regional diplomacy TehranTimes
The new policy came into effect right from the start. After taking office in August 2021, Ayatollah Raisi announced that he prioritizes what came to be known as “neighborhood policy,” one that rests on fostering good neighborly relations with all neighbors and boosting ties with Eastern powers along with Europe.
A senior Iranian lawmaker recently told Fars News that Amir Abdollahian will soon meet his Saudi counterpart in Baghdad to discuss bilateral issues, the exchange of embassies and regional issues, especially the Yemen crisis.
Some Arab media outlets even raised the possibility of a summit between Ayatollah Raisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.
Ayatollah Raisi is expected to pay a visit to Oman soon and according to the Arab press, Raisi also has a visit to the United Arab Emirates on his agenda. The president and his foreign minister both sent letters of condolences to their Emirati counterparts on the death of former UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed. Amir Abdollahian offered condolences in person to new President Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed. After his trip to the UAE, Amir Abdollahian said a “new chapter” opened in Tehran-Abu Dhabi relations.
On Thursday, Ayatollah Raisi received Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev. In the meeting, the Azeri official pointed to a previous meeting between Ayatollah Raisi and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Ashgabat and said, “Your meeting with Mr. Aliyev in Ashgabat is historic and has opened new pages in the history of relations between the two countries.”
On Friday, Amir Abdollahian also spoke over the phone with his Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
- What next for Lebanon after Hezbollah loses its parliamentary majority? EuroNews
Lebanon’s militant group Hezbollah and its allies lost their parliamentary majority after elections were held on Sunday. The coalition won 61 seats in the 128-member legislature, a drop of 10 members since the last vote was held four years ago.
Independents gained more than a dozen seats and were the big winners, along with the nationalist Christian Lebanese Forces party, which took votes away from its Christian rival, the Free Patriotic Movement founded by President Michel Aoun.
Along with the economic crisis, the country is struggling to afford its imports and is suffering the lingering effects of the Beruit port blast of 2020, which killed at least 218 people and left much of the capital devastated.
The process of forming a new government for the country will now take months, as there is no obvious majority in parliament.
- UK lifts all restrictions on defence exports to Turkey MEE
The United Kingdom has completely lifted all of the restrictions on the export of defence products to Turkey that were brought in following Ankara's 2019 offensive on northeast Syria, Turkey’s chief defence industry officer Ismail Demir said on Friday.
Africa
- Togo looks like West Africa’s new frontier of violent extremism The Conversation
Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province have been active in the Lake Chad Basin region. Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and Ansarul Islam in the Sahel. The implications for the peace and security of the sub-region have never been more pronounced.
The activities of these groups have led to the deaths of thousands and displaced many others across parts of West Africa. The result is a worsening humanitarian crisis.
Diplomatically 2, Militarily
Togo, despite its proximity to countries affected by violent extremism, is one West African country that has experienced relative peace and security, until recently. On May 10 and 11 jihadists attacked a Togolese military outpost and killed eight Togolese soldiers.
- Mali foreign minister in Moscow, reiterates things have changed with partners AfricaNews. Also: Russia blasts France’s ‘colonial mindset’ in Africa RT
"Every day, there are attempts to make our lives difficult, because the only problem that we have is that Malians have decided to take their destiny into their own hands, they decided to manage their country according to their own vision. I believe that certain of our partners have not yet realised that things have changed." Diop told reporters.
Meanwhile, Moscow says it is ready "to increase the combat capabilities of the Malian armed forces", particularly in the training of soldiers and law enforcement.
Lavrov assured that Moscow will continue to deliver mineral fertiliser, petroleum products and wheat to Mali amid growing concerns of a global food crisis.
Paris has repeatedly raised concerns over growing security cooperation between Bamako and Moscow, Lavrov said. During the talks, the Russian side reiterated its readiness to continue providing “complex support” to Bamako, including training Malian armed and security forces. “Their dissatisfaction with the decision of the Malian authorities to seek help from foreign powers to provide protection and security is nothing more than the resurgence of a colonial mindset, which the Europeans should have gotten rid of long ago,” Lavrov said.
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Algeria-Russian Military-Technical Cooperation To Continue TeleSUR
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Biden administration approves large sale of anti-tank missiles to Egypt MEE
The Biden administration informed Congress on Thursday that it has approved a potential sale of $691m worth of anti-tank missiles and other equipment to Egypt. The sale, if completed, would include 5,070 TOW 2A anti-tank missiles, tools, equipment and training services.
The weapons would help Egypt replenish its existing stockpiles of armaments and be used for counter-terrorism operations and border security operations, according to a statement released by the Department of Defence.
A country of more than 100 million straddling the Middle East and North Africa, Egypt is a strategic US ally in the region and home to the Suez Canal, the vital shipping artery through which 12 percent of world trade passes.
It receives about $1.3bn in US military aid annually, the second-highest amount of any country after Israel. However, ties between the two allies have come under strain over the Biden administration's critique of human rights issues in the country.
In recent years, Egypt has also diversified its suppliers of armaments, striking deals with France and Russia. Between 2017 and 2021, Moscow was the single largest provider of arms to the country, as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi looked to hedge against reliance on the US.
But Russia's invasion of Ukraine and western sanctions have hamstrung Moscow’s defence industry, raising hopes among US officials that they can pry Egypt, as well as other Middle Eastern states, away from the Kremlin’s orbit.
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Mali is Deprived of an Opportunity to Follow Policies Independent of the West NEO
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Biden Redeploys Troops To Somalia While Humanitarian Crisis Looms Popular Resistance
North America
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The US kicks off neocolonialism via Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Bilaterals
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Trump-Loving Americans Drinking Deep From Orban's Fascist Well CommonDreams
South America
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Panama President aims to restart China trade talks immediately Bilaterals
-
Lula Can Win This Year’s Presidential Election in Brazil Jacobin
-
Cuba and Mexico Strengthen Ties in Health Care Collaboration TeleSUR
-
Nicolas Maduro Activates New System of Government in Venezuela TeleSUR
According to the head of state, the tools and strategies of the technological platform of the 1×10 Government method to provide solutions to the population are comprehensively structured.
"Now we are going for more, now it is up to all of us and what is coming now is bigger, but to achieve it we need new working methods (...) We have been meticulously preparing the 1x10 of Good Governance, the Map of Solutions and the Concrete Action Agenda of the People's Power", he expressed.
The President also announced six strategic lines of action, including "advancing and consolidating the integral economic recovery of the country, strengthening the productive engines and achieving the stability of the fundamental economic markers."
In addition, these guarantee plans for the rewarding human development and social protection of the people; ensuring the right to the environment, the city and public services; and promoting the participation of the People's Power to guarantee good governance.
- Uruguayans To Demand Justice For Alvarez's Dictatorship Crimes TeleSUR
Militarily
General News
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Russia moves to recruit more soldiers by eliminating its age limit for military service after a series of setbacks in Ukraine BusinessInsider
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Is Russia fielding laser weapons in Ukraine? Pentagon does not think so Reuters
The Pentagon said on Friday there were no indications that Russia had used laser weaponry in Ukraine, following claims by Moscow that it was fielding a new generation of powerful lasers there to strike enemy drones.
"We don't have any indication of the use of lasers, at least weaponized lasers, in Ukraine. Nothing to confirm on that," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told a news briefing.
- Berlin to deliver first 15 Gepard tanks to Ukraine in July, defense minister says Reuters
Oh, thank god, I was wondering if it was gonna be too late.
- Netherlands announces that they can no longer send any more howitzers to Ukraine Yahoo
Southern Ukraine
- Russia says Azovstal siege is over, in full control of Mariupol Al Jazeera. Also: Russia advances in Ukraine's Donbas as Mariupol steelworks siege ends Reuters
"The territory of the Azovstal metallurgical plant ... has been completely liberated," the ministry said in a statement, adding that 2,439 defenders had surrendered in the past few days, including 531 in the final group.
- Russia takes three more villages near Popasna.
Dipshittery
- Why is the Brazilian left supporting Putin’s Russia? Al Jazeera
Brazillian journalists are holding us pro-Putin tankies accountable in this article. Don't read if you don't want to be shown some extremely good arguments that will change your mind and take up the incredibly fringe position nowadays that Russia is bad and the US is good, a viewpoint that must be preserved and fought for at all costs against the billions of communists violently beating down the walls rather than engaging in peaceful, calm debate.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to an unexpected convergence in the political arena. Indeed, all over the world left-wing parties, activists and even prominent leftist politicians are joining the far right in voicing their support for – or at least excusing – the Kremlin’s brutal, imperialist aggression against a much smaller sovereign nation.
Every nation is smaller than Russia. I know that's not the point but, just saying.
This strange phenomenon is perhaps most visible in Brazil, where supporters of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and his left-wing rival, former president Lula da Silva, are both working hard to demonstrate why Russia should not be blamed for the devastation we are witnessing in Ukraine today.
Bipartisanship is bad now?
Just like their counterparts on the right, left-wing supporters of the Kremlin insist that it was NATO that “provoked” the war and that Russia is simply “defending itself” (they, of course, refuse to explain how this so-called act of “defence” is different from the West’s past “pre-emptive” strikes against countries of the Global South that they vehemently condemned).
As an optimist, I refuse to believe this person is so stupid as to not understand the difference between invading Iraq and Afghanistan on the literal other side of the planet from the US for the profit of the MIC, vs a hostile imperial organisation threatening to occupy and put nuclear weapons on a country bordering Russia.
They are also dismissing credible reports of war crimes, crimes against humanity and even genocide coming from Ukraine as Western “distortions” and “NATO propaganda” funded by George Soros (ironically also the bogeyman of the anti-Semitic far right), in defence of Ukrainian “Nazis” trying to destroy Russia.
Who on the left is blaming George Soros for anything? Like, is this a thing I've missed?
Behind all this, of course, there is a justified mistrust of the US and NATO – leftists in Brazil have much reason to question any narrative supported by the empire that inflicted so much pain on their region. After all, there is not a single right-wing dictatorship on the continent that was born without a degree of US support or encouragement.
There are, however, also other, much less justifiable, reasons behind this surprising pro-Kremlin stance. In the imagination of many Brazilian leftists, despite its aggressive capitalism and impossible to ignore imperial tendencies, Putin’s Russia is still the natural successor of a left-wing utopia once represented by the Soviet Union. Not even the autocratic Russian leader’s undeniable corruption, his oppression and abuse of the Russian working class, or his financial and ideological support for the global far right seem able to shake their belief that he can and will be the leader of the revolution that topples the US-led world order.
We've gone from neoliberals not being able to tell the USSR and Russia apart and saying that Russia is a totalitarian communist nation still, from them accusing us of not being able to tell the two apart.
This is not to say that most of the left-wing activists, thinkers and politicians who are sympathetic to the Kremlin are too naive to see President Vladimir Putin for the right-wing kleptocrat that he really is – they likely are not. But they strongly believe that under Putin’s command, Russia can put an end to US imperialism and pave the way for a multipolar world order. And they are willing to turn a blind eye to his regime’s myriad human rights abuses, and support his war of aggression against a neighbouring nation, to see their main enemy – the West – defeated.
If Satan rose up from Hell with his army of the damned, I would support him in his campaign against the United States, for the US is the greater Satan.
On the surface, most Brazilian leftists appear to be avid supporters of human rights, democracy and justice. They proudly say they want to see an end to powerful countries – all powerful countries – invading others under the guise of “bringing democracy”. But sadly, their desire to see an end to the Western-led world order leads to them excusing invasions, wars of aggression and even genocides when they are initiated by the West’s enemies. In their eyes, the only real imperialism is US imperialism.
Lula, who himself said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is as responsible for his country’s current fate as Putin in a recent interview, and a majority of the Brazilian left seem convinced that it is OK to deny the humanity and sovereignty of an entire nation if it inflicts damage on the US.
The universe began on the 24th of February 2022 and there is no context to this situation at all.
There are, of course, leftists in Brazil who do criticise and stand against all kinds of abuse – whether committed by the US and its allies or Russia. But more often than not, they end up being accused of not being real leftists or buying into American propaganda by their pro-Russian “comrades” who see any criticism of Russia merely as a defence of the US.
All in all, it seems many Brazilian leftists have failed to accept that the Berlin Wall fell and the Cold War ended. They are living in an imaginary world where Russia is fighting a revolutionary war against the US. In this world, all of Russia’s crimes need to be excused or ignored. The crimes of other “anti-imperialists” – read anti-US forces of any creed – such as Daniel Ortega’s Nicaragua or Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela should also be buried and not talked about. They are blind to the hypocrisy of supporting those who are being oppressed and victimised by the imperialism of the West, while baselessly branding the victims of Russia’s equally brutal and deadly imperialism “Nazis”.
These people rightfully denounced US-instigated regime change on their continent, condemned Israel for its crimes against the Palestinian people, and stood against the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan by the US. But now they seem unable to see they are siding with the aggressor because that aggressor is not the West, but Russia.
This is, of course, not the first time large sectors of the left – in Brazil and beyond – have found themselves rooting for the success of a brutal right-wing dictator merely to spite the West. Many leftists also sided with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in no distant history, declaring him an anti-imperialist hero, just because the US happened to be supportive of the Syrian people’s revolt against him.
It should have been an easy decision for the Brazilian left to put its support behind Ukraine. It is, after all, a smaller country being invaded by an imperial power, fighting for its independence. But many of them are stuck in a black-and-white dream world where there is only one evil – the US. They love to pretend Russia is doing everything it does – including invading its neighbours – not to expand its own power but to free the world from the clutches of the evil American empire.
If the Brazilian left is to be successful once again and prove to the people that it is on the right side of history, it needs to stand against all imperial oppressors, including the Russians.
That's the whole article. You'll notice that the criticism of Russia's war in Ukraine vastly outnumbers the criticism of America's wars and coups around the globe for the last century.
- Goodbye, American soft power: McDonald’s exiting Russia after 32 years is the end of an era CNBC
This article is an eldritch creation that will drive you into insanity. Bolster your mental defences and proceed with care.
It was 4 a.m. and a trickle of Russians had already begun lining up outside the building in the freezing winter cold, hours before opening time.
When the doors opened, hundreds of hungry, bundled-up Muscovites rushed in for their first-ever taste of this alien creation: the Big Mac.
It was January of 1990 and McDonalds was opening its very first restaurant in the Soviet Union, becoming one of the few Western companies to breach the Iron Curtain in its final days as it slowly opened up to the world.
At that time, Russians were hungry. In the literal sense. Stores frequently ran out of food and lacked most of the products that existed in the Western world. A meal at McDonald’s cost half a days’ wages, but “it’s unusual … and delicious,” one local woman told a CBC News reporter at the opening, after trying her first burger.
“We are all hungry in this city,” the woman said. “We need more of these places – there is nothing in our stores or restaurants.” The McDonald’s ended up having to stay open several hours past its official closing time due to the high demand, and served a whopping 30,000 customers on its opening day – a record for the iconic American chain.
Of course, in the 32 years since, Russia has become a capitalist haven, replete with thousands of recognizable Western brands and foreign investment. But in the weeks following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of its neighbor Ukraine and amid global condemnation, most of these brands have shut their doors, either closing temporarily or vacating the country entirely.
Dipshittery 2, Climate, Extra
So the scenes from 1990 have almost repeated themselves three decades later, albeit in a very different context. When McDonald’s announced the temporary closing of its more than 800 restaurants in Russia in early March, before this week’s decision to exit the country permanently, long lines were seen outside its facilities as Russians came to get what could be their last-ever golden-arched burgers and fries. One Russian man even handcuffed himself to the door of a Moscow McDonald’s in protest, shouting “Closing down is an act of hostility against me and my fellow citizens!” before being arrested.
For Bakhti Nishanov, a Eurasia specialist who grew up in the Soviet Union, the departure is oddly emotional. “It’s truly weird how this hits me. It’s almost like hope leaving the country,” he told CNBC. “This has a massive symbolic importance: McDonald’s coming to Russia, then part of the Soviet Union, was an implicit signal to the world that Russia is open for business. The company leaving Russia is an explicit signal that the country is no longer a place you want to be in as a business,” Nishanov said.
“I first read about the McDonald’s in Russia in a youth magazine called Yunniy Tehnik,” Nishanov recounted. “I was absolutely mesmerized and fascinated by the article and the idea that one, for a relatively modest amount of money, can too be part of the American culture that McDonald’s was a tangible representation of.”
“To a generation of Russians, McDonald’s — commonly referred to as MakDak — was a fascinating phenomenon,” he added. “Clearly connected to the American culture, yet very much part of their daily lives and, in a way, less foreign or alien than many other brands.”
...
Politically, the golden arches also went a long way, says Tricia Starks, a professor of history at the University of Arkansas and author of the forthcoming book “Cigarettes and Soviets.”
“The American way of consumption was a crucial soft-diplomacy front in the Cold War … acquainting the Soviets with America’s material standards was another field of battle,” Starks said. A few other brands took on this role in the USSR before McDonald’s did, namely Pepsi in 1972 and Marlboro in 1976.
But McDonalds, unlike a can of Pepsi or a pack of Marlboro cigarettes, “was a totally immersive experience of capitalism’s sensual joys,” she said.
“From the moment you stepped in, it was an entirely different experience than a Soviet restaurant. You were greeted with smiles and shouts of ‘Can I help you?’ Products were of consistent quality and always consumable. The burgers were hot!”
This was a culture shock to Soviet denizens, many of whom expressed confusion when staff would smile at them. “When I smile, people are asking what’s wrong, they think I am laughing at them,” one Russian employee at the McDonald’s opening day in 1990 told a reporter.
“When you were done, a worker would come and whisk away the trash, and the showplace on Pushkin Square was kept clean despite the thousands who would come by through the day — some of them waiting hours to spend a full month’s wages on dinner for a family of four,” Starks described, noting that customer service was simply not a concept in the USSR. “Service was a side product of a McDonald’s experience.”
Not all Russians feel bad about the golden arches leaving. “Hello Americans … We want to thank you for all your sanctions, for taking away from our country Coca Cola, KFC, McDonald’s and all that sh--. Now by summer we will be healthy, strong and without ass fat,” Russian influencer and comedian Natasha Krasnova wrote in an Instagram post in March that was viewed more than 5 million times.
...
“McDonald’s leaving Russia hits many of my generation differently,” he said, “I think because it represented — and I know this sounds dramatic — hope and optimism. The company leaving confirms Putin’s Russia is a place devoid of those two things.”
- Cosmopolitan no more: Russians feel sting of cultural and economic rift Guardian
Compare this article to the one all the way up there in Economically about Europe.
“When I had my first child, there was all this choice. Mothercare, Zara, you name it,” said Evgenia Marsheva, a 33-year-old architect. But when she went shopping in Moscow this month for her newborn, many of those large retail brands had been shuttered.
“Now, I can only find very cheap or extremely expensive Russian products. I was brought up with tales of the limited choices that my parents had during the Soviet Union. I never thought that would come back.”
Three months into the war, Russia has become the most sanctioned country in the world, and almost 1,000 foreign brands – the majority of them voluntarily – have curtailed their operations there, according to records kept by the Yale School of Management. The exodus of companies continued this week with McDonald’s officially announcing it would leave Russia after three decades.
According to estimates by officials, the Russian economy is expected to contract by between 8 and 12% in 2022. Car sales, an indicator often used by experts to measure the economic mood, fell by almost 80% in April, the largest drop on record. Meanwhile, the country’s central bank has predicted an inflation rate between 18 and 23% this year.
In a recent survey by the independent Levada Center, 85% of Russians polled said now was a bad time for big purchases, the highest level in more than a decade, while more than 60% of Russians said they had no savings.
“The government has created a false sense of stability. But the long-term picture is damning,” said Shagina.
While the slow-burning sanctions might not force Vladimir Putin to change his actions in Ukraine, the pressure on the Kremlin would rise “dramatically” if the European Union proceeded with its plans to decouple from Russian oil and gas, she said.
“As long as Russia has its revenues from gas and oil it can sustain the war. It will be a huge blow to the Kremlin if they lose that cash cow.”
“The cultural isolation is maybe even scarier for me than the economic one,” said Katya Fedorova, a former fashion editor who now runs a widely read lifestyle and fashion blog on Telegram.
“I remember summers spent in Moscow hopping from an exhibition by Juergen Teller to one by Murakami, dancing at music festivals where the international lineups would rival the best European concerts,” Fedorova recalled. Western fashion executives would marvel when she took them around town, commenting on how “modern and happening” the city was.
- Azov Battalion evacuates dead after fighters stop defending Mariupol steel plant EuroNews
"stop defending" is certainly one phrase for it.
- Russia is desperate for more soldiers and likely to redeploy troops too quickly after Mariupol siege, UK intel says BusinessInsider
They're never happy, are they? Russia is either acting too quickly, or too slowly.
- Before-and-after photos show the personal toll of Ukraine's war on Zelenskyy since he took office 3 years ago BusinessInsider
He's an actor, through and through.
Climate
- Most of US will see above-average temperatures as Western drought continues CNN
Nearly the entire contiguous US is expected to have above-normal temperatures this summer, which runs from June through August, according to Thursday's Climate Prediction Center's outlook. The combination of hotter weather and below-average rainfall is expected to fuel the megadrought that covers much of the West.
Unfortunately, the outlook for precipitation remains low across the west as well, with the lowest chances of rainfall from central Wyoming into northern Texas. The only area with above-average precipitation probabilities is found along the Gulf coastal region and Florida.
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Cold wave hits southern Brazil with record-low temperatures France24
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Kenya: Bees at risk from pesticides and habitat loss AfricaNews
In Kenya, environmental scientists are calling for a new multidisciplinary approach that involves farmers, beekeepers and environmentalists.
Samuel Mwaniki, is a beekeeper in Kitui County, Kenya. He says that lack of rainfall and the use of pesticides to combat 2021's locust invasion devastated his hives.
- The climate scientists are not alright WaPo
Frustration, rage, terror, desperation: After decades of being ignored, scientists are resorting to more radical action to communicate the dire urgency of the climate crisis.
- Climate change likely to reduce the amount of sleep that people get per year ScienceDaily
I Thought I'd Mention
This person has clearly never had a big mac and therefore cannot understand that permitting the existence of McDonald's is a crime against humanity.
Broke: interpreting the world in terms of idealist notions of freedom, democracy, justice, etc
Woke: interpreting the world in terms of material notions of capital, profit extraction, suppression of labor, etc
Bespoke: interpreting the world in terms of treatsIt's extra amusing to see the treat fetish performed by people who probably don't even want the treats themselves. They have to know in their hearts that having ready access to the worst tasting and least healthy burger is definitely not the key to a secure, fulfilling, and happy life, especially when it's more than possible to just ensure ready access to nutritious and good tasting food.
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If we assume that Russia is going for Novorossiya, which Putin has regarded as constituting Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa, then it's worth noting that those oblasts collectively make up 21% of the Ukrainian GDP; with Zaporizhzhia, it's 25%, and with Dnipro, it's 35%.
Mariupol has 50% of Ukraine's steel industry. According to Wikipedia, Ukrainian iron and steel industry accounts for around 2% of worldwide crude steel output, 5% to 6% of the national gross domestic product and 34% of Ukrainian export revenue. Ukraine has a fifth of the world's commercial iron ore reserves, or about 11% of the total pure iron, behind Russia and Australia, and it seems a great deal/most of this mining is in the Dnipro oblast, but there is also some in Kherson and Donetsk.
Dnipro oblast also has one of the most manganese-rich ore veins in the world, and Ukraine has 75% of the manganese reserves of the former CIS, though globally it provides a small percentage of total manganese despite having 10% of the global reserves.
Coal using for coke is mined in Donetsk oblast, as well as in Dnipro. The coal mines in Ukraine are among the deepest in Europe.
Zapor. oblast also has the only producer of titanium sponge in Ukraine and Europe - Zaporizhzhia Titanium and Magnesium Combine LLC - according to this source. "The plant specializes in producing titanium slag, titanium ingots, slabs, and titanium oxide and titanium aluminium alloys." Also, "Ukrainian Chemical Products is the main supplier of titanium dioxide on the domestic market."
There is an aluminium refining plant in Mykolaiv and a aluminium smelting plant in Zapor. oblast, and one of Ukraine's two fertilizer plants is located in Dnipro. oblast. Nepheline, used for soda, is located mostly in the Donetsk, Dnipro, and Zapor. oblasts. Donetsk has significant amounts of rock salt.
Natural gas is produced in Ukraine in the Dniper-Donetsk region, with about 50% in Kharkiv oblast and another 40% further north, as well as in Crimea (though that ship has sailed) and a small amount in the far west of the country. However, these reserves only make up 3% of Russia's natural gas reserves. Ukraine's oil fields are located in the west of the country.
Most of Ukraine's energy is generated by gas and coal, much of which is imported. A small percentage comes from nuclear and oil. 10% comes from renewables, half of which is hydro power. Zapor. oblast has the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, which Russia currently controls. The other three nuclear power plants in Ukraine are essentially safe from Russia in a Novorossiya scenario.
Manufacturing is largely located in Novorossiya states, with some factories in Lviv. These produce iron products, as well as agricultural equipment. The chemical industry is mostly located outside of Novorossiya, however.
Ukraine, as most people know, is a major agricultural producer, with agriculture making up something like a tenth of its GDP. It produces most of the world's sunflower oil and is the largest honey producer in Europe. It is the 5th largest producer of maize, 8th of wheat, 3rd of potatoes, 7th of sugar beets, 7th of barley, 7th of rapeseed, 5th of cabbage, 3rd of pumpkins, 6th of cucumbers, 5th of carrots, 4th of dry peas, 7th of rye, 3rd of buckwheat, and 6th of peanuts. While the areas in which each crop is grown differ, in general, agriculture takes place all across Ukraine, with the central area being less productive, and the west and east (particularly Lugansk) being more productive, with the south (Kherson, Odessa, etc) being in the middle.
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_production_in_Ukraine
https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/Resources-and-power
https://www.mindat.org/locentries.php?p=3275&m=2880
https://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-178deb91-69cf-42e0-9057-c972384480da/c/01_syvyi_demyanchuk_havryshok_phosphates_of_ukraine_as_raw_2019_4.pdf
https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/04/russia-does-not-seem-to-be-after-ukraines-gas-reserves.html
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/t22zkc/map_detailing_the_largely_untapped_gas_and_oil/
https://www.iea.org/countries/ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine#Agriculture
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Gross-agricultural-production-by-regions-in-Ukraine-2010_fig5_283418456Ukraine SitRep - Russians Break Through U.S. Bolsterism
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Yesterday the top officers of the U.S. and Russia had a call which, again, the U.S. side had initiated:
Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, held a conversation that the Pentagon declined to further detail beyond acknowledging it had happened.
Things must be bad in Ukraine for this to have happened. Indeed if one trusts the daily 'clobber list' the Russian Ministry of Defense puts out all positions of the Ukrainian army are under heavy artillery fire and it is losing about 500 men per day. There are additional Russian effective strikes on training camps, weapon storage sites and transport hubs all over the country.
On top of that the tactical situation at the eastern frontline has changed after Russian forces broke through the heavily fortified frontline.
A few days ago the Russian army went forward along the H-32 road, broke through the line in the direction of Propasna and took the town. It has since extended the bulge by taking several villages to the north, west and south.
This breakthrough gives the chance to roll up the Ukrainian fortifications along the frontline through flank attacks or from behind. By cutting the supply lines of the Ukrainian troops to the north and south envelopes can be created which will eventual lead to cauldrons with no way out for the Ukrainian troops.
This is especially dangerous for the several thousand soldiers north of the bulge which currently defend the cities of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk in the north eastern part of the upper bubble.
The Russian plan was to have another breakthrough from the north pushing to Siversk to then close the upper envelope. But after several failed attempts to cross the forest area and the Seversky Donets river that breakthrough has still to happen.
Russia is now likely to push fresh troops into the Propasna bulge to extend its reach into all directions. Reports of current actions show that the heavy fighting and bombing on the frontline continues and that bombing also continues to target traffic nodes.
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The gasoline and diesel scarcity in Ukraine is currently having severe impacts. Even the Ukrainian military is now rationing its fuel. Since about six weeks ago Russia has systematically attacked refineries and fuel storage sites in Ukraine. It also disabled railroad bridges along the lines that brought fuel from Moldova and Romania. At the same time the Ukrainian government had held up price regulations for fuel. The consumer sale prices for diesel and gasoline were fixed. The cost of fuel brought in by private trucks from Poland exceeded the price gas station owners could ask for. In consequence gas stations ran dry as their owners refrained from purchasing new fuel.
Three days ago the Zelensky regime in Kiev finally ended the fuel price control ... The expected prices are lower than what is currently asked for in Germany and that is without trucking the fuel the 600 kilometer from Poland to Kiev. The threat of sanctions also means that local wholesalers will have little incentives to actually deal in fuel. With the average wages in Ukraine being about $480 per months the real fuel prices will soon become another economic shock.
In total the social-economic situation for Ukraine is catastrophic. The military situation is even worse. Mariupol has fallen and Russian troops working there will soon be able to go elsewhere. The Propasna bulge is threatening to envelope the whole northern frontline together with the core of the Ukrainian army. There is no more talk of the Ukrainian army 'winning' like in Kiev or Karkov where the Russian troops retreated in good order after finishing their task of holding Ukrainian forces in place. The Ukrainian command has sent several territorial brigades to the front lines. These units were supposed to defend their home towns. They consist of middle age men drafted into service. They have little fighting experience and lack heavy weapons. Several of these units have published videos saying they were giving up. They are lamenting that their commanders left them when their situation became critical. That the Ukrainian army is now using such units as cannon fodder shows that it has only few reserves left. Weapons that come in from the 'west' have difficulties reaching the front lines and had so far very little effect. They amount to drops of water on a hot plate.
All the above are the reasons why Austin and Milley have phoned up their Russian equivalents. They are also the reasons why the New York Times editors call on the Biden administration to end its bluster and to take a more realistic position
if it makes y'all feel better Alaska's also looking like it'll catch on fire again, so all y'all southerners won't be alone and on fire.
Wonder if the chuds are gonna refuse to wear n95 masks when the AQI goes above 500 again
It's 86°F (30°C) where I am (American northeast) and nothing is on fire yet but I sure wish I was home lol
Democracies Can Out-Compete the China-Russia Alliance, by Bloomberg
The economic trauma of the Ukraine war is only beginning: Energy shocks, food-supply disruption and commodity shortages will have growing impact as the conflict persists. The war, moreover, is just part of an accelerating geo-economic realignment.
The golden age of globalization, when countries pursued interdependence with minimal fear of insecurity, is over. The global economy is now being reshaped by competition and conflict. That will create some opportunities for the US to strengthen its position — as well as a whole lot of worldwide turmoil.
A remarkable aspect of the post-Cold War era was that calculations of economic efficiency so often trumped calculations of geopolitical risk. An era that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall was dominated by the pursuit of integration across traditional strategic divides.
A web of trade, financial and technological ties developed between China and the world’s democracies. European countries became highly reliant on Russian energy (notably Germany) and investment (the UK). The pursuit of profit was accompanied by a diplomatic rationale — that economic entanglement would create a common interest in global stability, mitigating whatever dangers might otherwise result from trading with a prospective enemy.
That rationale proved faulty. Globalization increased Chinese and Russian capabilities without meaningfully decreasing their ambitions. By the mid-2010s, global tensions were increasing and interdependence came to be seen as a source of vulnerability.
This is such horseshit. They're slapping the typical American idealist rationale "we were actually doing it to spread freedom and democracy" to considerations that were purely material; "how do we get the maximum amount of profit? send our production to China due to cheaper labour"
Worried that Beijing might translate technological primacy into geopolitical primacy, President Donald Trump’s administration urged other nations to wall off their 5G telecommunications networks against Chinese influence. It sought to forestall completion of the Nord Stream II pipeline between Russia and Germany, lest Europe become diplomatically paralyzed by dependence on Moscow’s energy.
Yeah, that was the reason.
When Beijing then threatened to withhold critical pharmaceutical components amid the Covid-19 pandemic, it showed how complex supply chains could be wielded as strategic weapons.
Yeah, that's called sanctioning, which the US has been doing for decades to countries it doesn't like.
In this context, the war in Ukraine has thrown global integration into reverse. Western companies that pushed into Russia after the Cold War are being forced to flee, with McDonald’s Corp. being the latest (and perhaps most symbolic). US export controls have severed Russia’s access to advanced semiconductors; Germany and other European democracies are rapidly undoing decades of economic engagement. This conflict-driven decoupling may simply be a preview of what comes next.
President Xi Jinping’s China was already pursuing what Matthew Pottinger, deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration, calls an “offensive decoupling” strategy — a program meant to insulate the country from Western pressure and give it tremendous coercive power by dominating critical technologies. Xi’s “dual circulation” program is meant to develop China’s internal market and make the country less reliant on external markets that might slam shut in a crisis.
It seems inevitable that this campaign will accelerate. China, whose relations with Washington are in a nosedive, can hardly leave itself susceptible to the sort of punishment the US and its allies have imposed on Moscow.
Yeah, what if the West sanctioned China and, like Russia, it ended up with the strongest performing currency? China would be so owned.
Similar processes are underway across the democratic world. Europe is moving to wean itself off Russian oil and natural gas. The US is considering sharper curbs on investment in China; Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is pushing “friend-shoring,” or relocating production to countries aligned with Washington.
The administration of President Joe Biden is also working with allies, such as Japan, to create technological supply chains and innovation ecosystems that leave China on the outside.
It has refused, so far, to remove Trump’s tariffs on China, a step that would help ease inflation, for fear of surrendering a diplomatic advantage. This turns the post-Cold War norm on its head: Calculations of geopolitical risk are now trumping calculations of economic efficiency.
To be sure, interdependence is hardly a thing of the past. US trade in goods with China was more than $650 billion last year, and American companies such as Tesla Inc. and Apple Inc. are doing more, not less, business with Beijing.
But the basic trend is toward a more balkanized global economy, in which key rivals aim to seal off dangerous vulnerabilities and manipulate the terms of interdependence to their advantage. And if recent experience is any indication, this process will happen gradually until it happens rapidly — when a grave crisis erupts, as in Ukraine, and sunders ties that had seemed unbreakable not long before.
Structurally speaking, the US is well positioned. America and the other advanced democracies possess a clear majority of global production and wealth. If they, plus key developing states such as India, deepen their integration with each other while limiting it with their rivals, they can create a free-world economy more vibrant than anything China, let alone Russia, can muster.
But if you don't have the raw materials to put into your production lines, then it all grinds to a halt. And China and Russia have a great deal of raw materials.
But the current crisis has also revealed how delinquent the democratic world has been in planning for the dramatic economic interruptions a major geopolitical showdown involving China would cause. And even if the US and its allies get their act together, no one should underestimate the dislocations headed our way.
As Ukraine demonstrates, obtaining greater geo-economic security will require rupturing supply chains, upending trade and investment patterns, and otherwise revisiting the lucrative efficiencies of the post-Cold War era. A world that is more divided geopolitically will be more turbulent economically as well.
Awesome, cool, great, but you actually have to start doing it and stop saying that you can do it.
I haven't been paying too much attention to this lately after the initial invasion and assault on Kiev, but do we know what Putin's aims are with this invasion yet? It seems like he's trying to bring Novorossiya under his control, no? Will he actually annex all that territory? Will he go as far as Odessa and try to bring Transnistria under his direct control also (I remember some people were discussing this possibility at the start)?
Is there an end goal for Russia that is clear yet?
I think the only thing we can say for certain at this point is that Ukraine is never going to get back Donbass or the areas of Novorossiya that the Russians currently occupy.
Beyond that, the extent of territory Russia takes will probably depend on whether the Ukrainian defense in Donbass entirely collapses or not. They're currently cracking, and Russian advances have been slow but accelerating. If this accelerates into a full collapse of the Ukrainian army, then I'd honestly be kinda surprised if the Russians didn't make a push towards Odessa & Transnistria.
I think they'll also try and take Kharkov regardless, since it's right next to the Lugansk oblast, and they're already fighting near it anyways. Kharkov also used to be a major center of pro-Russian sentiment before being suppressed by the 2014 coup government from what I've heard, so there's that aspect as well
I think you mean Tarkov, where the Ukrainian forces and ghost of Kiyiev are killing billions of **cs per day.
What I'm fairly sure is going to happen is the "annexation" of parts of Ukraine into Russia. One can debate to what extent these are voluntary transfers of Ukrainian terrain into Russia - the Donbass, probably voluntary - Kherson, maybe not so much, but the people there don't seem super unhappy right now - certainly a bit miserable but certainly not at full-scale guerrilla warfare. Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts are 99.999% certain in my mind to end up in Russia, whether as outright territory, or as autonomous republics that Russia has sovereignty over but otherwise leaves the leaders with most of the decisions without Russian intervention.
Kherson is probably a shoe-in as the Russian leader of that oblast has been talking about joining Russia - tellingly, without doing a referendum first, which indicates to me that they know it wouldn't be popular. Kherson supplies Crimea with fresh water so that's one good reason to just keep it, and besides, they control virtually the whole oblast anyway at this point. Zaporizhzia is a little more complicated because the main city hasn't been taken yet (and Russia isn't really trying to take it right now, which is understandable given the current focus on Donbass) but I feel like it would be strange to leave that oblast to Ukraine if you're taking the ones west and east of it. Some commentators have speculated that taking the rest of the Zaporizhzia oblast will be the next thing Russia does once the Donbass is fully under Russian control, but all we can do is speculate.
Kharkiv oblast is the next one that Russia has significant territorial gains in. Taking the city would be difficult, as it has (or, rather, had) 3x the population of Mariupol, and is, I think, the biggest city that Russia is in some way threatening right now. And, well, looking at the size of that city compared to others is illustrative of the problems in taking it. Really difficult urban warfare there, I would imagine, tons of casualties, so if Russia wants it, they'd have to surround it and starve it out. I'm less sure that Russia will take Kharkiv oblast than the others due to these issues, but it would be a major gain if they did so.
Then, Mykolaiv and Odessa. Russia has almost no territory in Mykolaiv oblast and none in Odessa, and are not really threatening the cities anymore unlike during the first few weeks of the invasion. But I feel like they would be tempting targets. Perhaps once the Donbass is fully cleared.
The only other oblast that I could hypothetically see Russia wanting is Dnipro oblast, as it contains two major industrial cities, but honestly it would be a ton of work to go even further than the oblasts already listed unless Ukraine really was fully beat at that point and Russia could just start plucking oblasts and cities from them without much resistance.
It seems like he’s trying to bring Novorossiya under his control, no?
Seems like it.
Will he actually annex all that territory?
Yes, very probable. Kherson will definitely become Russian because the Ukrops turned off the water for Crimea from there. The people's republics will definitely increase in size.
Will he go as far as Odessa and try to bring Transnistria under his direct control also (I remember some people were discussing this possibility at the start)?
Could be, but hard to know at this point. We will know more in a month or two.
@SpookyVanguard64 @SeventyTwoTrillion @euro_chapo thank you for the answers! glad to be on this site where people are so informed!
Australia: turning for the worse, by Michael Roberts
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If you agree that there is an imperialist bloc of countries that dominates and controls the world, then Australia should be included. It may be a new and smaller entrant to the bloc, and it may be just a satellite of US imperialism in the Asia-Pacific, but it still fits the bill as part of the bloc.
And increasingly, the ruling strategists of Australian capital also see it that way. Australia has a general election tomorrow (21 May); it has one every three years (a leftover from its early days of democratic development) and the ruling National-Liberal Coalition government has been sounding the war bells. During the election campaign, Australia’s defence minister Peter Dutton told the country to “prepare for war”, capping what analysts have called a “khaki campaign” by Scott Morrison’s right-wing government. Dutton ramped up the rhetoric, telling Australians: “The only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war and be strong as a country, not to cower, not to be on bended knee and be weak.”
And where is the threat of war to come from? China, of course. To counter what it sees as a threat from China, the Morrison’s government has in recent years sealed what is called the Aukus security pact with the US and UK and promised billions of dollars of defence and cyber security spending – all designed to resist the ‘threat’ of China – or to be more exact to follow the strategy of US imperialism to ‘contain’ and stop China becoming a rising economic power in the region and globally.
In the public opinion polls, ‘Trumpist’ Morrison trails Labor leader Anthony Albanese, with 54 per cent of voters backing the opposition compared with 46 per cent for the government, according to the latest Newspoll survey.
But don’t expect Albanese to alter Australia’s anti-China strategy. Labor fully backs the Aukus pact and if he wins, Albanese will join the meeting of the Quad — a security grouping of the US, Australia, India and Japan —which is due to take place in Tokyo only three days after Saturday’s election, with US president Joe Biden set to attend. Most analysts say that Biden “would be comfortable” with a Labor victory.
While the strategists of imperialism will be happy, Australia’s working people have more pressing problems. There are three issues dominating the election: the huge rise in house prices driven beyond the means of most Australians; the sharply rising cost of living where prices are rising much faster than wages; and climate change, with ever more destructive heatwaves, drought and floods affecting people’s lives.
Australia used to be called the ‘lucky country’ where people could emigrate to and start a new and prosperous life in an economy that had not suffered a recession of any note for decades. But the signs that this was changing have been there since the Great Recession of 2008-9 and subsequent Long Depression that ensued up to the COVID pandemic slump in 2020. After taking into account population growth, average annual real GDP per person grew by about 2% a year in Australia up to the Great Recession. However, since then, per capita growth has averaged half that rate.
Of course, this is a phenomenon found in nearly all major advanced capitalist economies since the Great Recession, but it has affected the ‘lucky country’ too.
As elsewhere, the slowdown in economic growth can be connected to the slowdown in productive investment growth. Indeed, investment to GDP has declined sharply since the Great Recession.
What lies behind the slowdown in real GDP and investment growth? It’s the same cause that applies to all the major capitalist economies in the last two decades: falling profitability of capital. The great boom and revival of profitability in Australian capital from the 1980s, led by Australia’s exploitation of resources in minerals, agricultural products and energy, and the huge expansion of a skilled workforce with ‘liberalised’ labour markets, started to falter in the late 1990s. And although there was a short uptick in profitability during the commodity boom up to 2010, driven by demand from China for Australia’s commodities, in the last decade, the decline in profitability resumed. Profitability is still as high as it was in the Golden Age of the 1960s (unlike most other major capitalist economies), but the trend is downwards.
The irony in the sabre-rattling of the coalition government against China is that Australia had been ‘lucky’ because of its close proximity to China, the fastest growing economy over the last 25 years. As one commentator put it: “Australia was uniquely placed to benefit from China and Asia’s long-term growth by exporting resources, agricultural produce and services to the region”. Also the economy benefited from an influx of skilled labour through immigration from all parts but also immigrants who came with wealth of their own to invest.”
And Australia remains heavily dependent on its exports to China and world growth in general. Until the pandemic, China was the largest source of foreign investment in Australia, leapfrogging the US. But strategy of American imperialism is now overriding economic reality.
The domestic issues in the election campaign centre round the sharply rising rate of inflation – something hitting all the major capitalist economies – and with little prospect of any solution from either government or opposition. Inflation in the prices of goods and services in Australia is rising much faster than wages. The annual inflation rate is currently 5.1% (a 21-year high) and set to rise further, while average wages are rising at just 2.4%. So real wages are falling at a rate not seen for decades.
As in the US and Europe, the only answer offered by the authorities is for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike interest rates, while calling for wage restraint. The RBA has now increased interest rates (by 0.25% to 0.35%) for the first time in more than eleven years – and the first hike in the middle of an election campaign since 2007.
These rate rises threaten the homes of millions of Australians. The housing bubble had already reached shocking proportions.
Australian households are now among the most indebted in the world. Chris Martin, a senior research fellow in UNSW’s City Futures Research Centre, said data from the Bank of International Settlements showed total credit to Australian households amounts to about 120% of annual GDP.
Major banks have already lifted interest rates for mortgages and other loans, matching the RBA’s 0.25 basis point increase. The RBA governor, Philip Lowe, said the cash rate could increase to 2.5% while investors are tipping it will rise to about 3.75% by May 2023. -If so, it’s estimated that 300,000 Australians could default on their mortgages as repayments increase. Each percentage point increase adds on average A$323 in monthly repayments, although some cities, such as Sydney are much higher at A$486, according to CoreLogic data. Car loans and credit card debt will also be more costly to repay at a time when the price for fuel and many other goods is rising, adding to families’ financial stress, Martin said.
Supposedly, the saving grace for Australians is ‘full employment’ to pay for these price rises.
But the headline unemployment rate hides the reality that employment has not recovered yet from the pandemic slump. Prior to 2020, employment was growing around 4.2% every two years, but since then it has increased just 2.1% – in effect at half the speed it had been in the period up to the pandemic. Moreover, the working age population beginning to stall.
Australian capital is running out of more labour, especially as immigration restrictions have stopped net immigration expanding. The pool of working age people has barely grown at all. Increasingly, Australian capital must rely on boosting productivity growth to expand and raise profitability. But investment growth is dropping off and productivity growth has been in a downward trend.
And on top of all this is the disaster of global warming and climate change that is beginning to hit Australia for a cricket six. Climate change in Australia has been a critical issue since the beginning of the 21st century. Australia is becoming hotter and will experience more extreme heat and longer fire seasons. In 2014, the Bureau of Meteorology released a report on the state of Australia’s climate that highlighted several key points, including the significant increase in Australia’s temperatures (particularly night-time temperatures) and the increasing frequency of bush fires, droughts and floods, which have all been linked to climate change.
In the past three years, record-breaking bushfire and flood events have killed more than 500 people and billions of animals. Drought, cyclones and freak tides have gripped communities. Queensland has been ravaged by floods in recent months. In February, the state capital Brisbane had more than 70% of its average yearly rainfall in just three days. Australia is facing an “insurability crisis” with one in 25 homes on track to be effectively uninsurable by 2030, according to a Climate Council report. Another one in 11 are at risk of being underinsured.
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Yet the economy depends very much on its fossil fuel exports and developing the mining industry. Non-renewable fossil fuels still account for about 85 percent of Australia‘s electricity generation. Australia is one of the world’s largest per capita emitters –producing some 1.3 percent of global carbon emissions with only 0.3 of the world’s population. For a nation so exposed to climate change, Australia remains one of the world’s biggest emitters per head of population. The government has promised to reduce emissions by 26% by 2030. Labor has pledged a 43% cut. Both promises are below the 50% recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The Chinese economy has slowed down, and with it the demand for Australia’s exports. Anyway, the imperialist bloc wants Australia to disengage from China. The cost of living is rising sharply; rising interest rates risk a serious housing crisis; and global warming is out of control. Neither government nor opposition have any answers. Australia’s luck is turning for the worse.