unlikely there will be much more ground gained or lost either way.
Agree with most of your post but not this part. Ukraine is essentially finite stockpile of many weapons systems (jets, tanks, cruise missiles, etc). Even if the West wanted to supply these big ticket items, it'd take years to get enough Ukrainians up to snuff on the operation and maintenance side. That's why most of the aid that's been sent is pretty point and shoot stuff like man portable missiles. Even the howitzers supplied by the US and Aus had their complex digital fire control systems removed.
Russia, on the other hand, makes most of its own stuff and can keep up resupply (even if at a diminished rate due to sanctions). Given enough time, the Russians should be able to grind down Ukrainian assets until the entity UAF is just light infantry, at which point the Russians can overrun them.
The main question is the political target and Russian public sentiment on where to stop. The former is unknown and the latter varies wildly depending on source.
Agree with most of your post but not this part. Ukraine is essentially finite stockpile of many weapons systems (jets, tanks, cruise missiles, etc). Even if the West wanted to supply these big ticket items, it'd take years to get enough Ukrainians up to snuff on the operation and maintenance side. That's why most of the aid that's been sent is pretty point and shoot stuff like man portable missiles. Even the howitzers supplied by the US and Aus had their complex digital fire control systems removed.
Russia, on the other hand, makes most of its own stuff and can keep up resupply (even if at a diminished rate due to sanctions). Given enough time, the Russians should be able to grind down Ukrainian assets until the entity UAF is just light infantry, at which point the Russians can overrun them.
The main question is the political target and Russian public sentiment on where to stop. The former is unknown and the latter varies wildly depending on source.