The misery index for the US economy, a good guide to past election results, points to a 30-seat defeat for Democrats in November's midterms https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/midterm-misery-for-biden-as-key-economy-gauge-flags-30-seat-loss?sref=babSEhDq via @bpolitics
"Updated Senate tally 3 days after election is Rs 52 seats and Ds 44 seats. Not all Senate races have been called due various issues including legal challenges by losing GOP candidates. Critics on Twitter have criticized 538 polling and research. We are responding. 1/87"
More criticism can be found in the tweet thread. A tweet summarizes it as "This is fcuking dumb. 87 tweets! You have a website - publish this shit there!" 538 does not reply to such comments. But a self-styled 538 supporter-fan does. "ICYMI - You misspelled your profanity."
It's not that crazy. The map is favorable to the Dems, there aren't any surefire pickups for the GOP and in the most vulnerable seats they've run awful candidates. I'd be pretty surprised if Fetterman lost to Oz at this point. Kelly is reasonably popular in Arizona and Masters is a dipshit. Take those two and you just have to win 2 of GA/NV/NH to hold the Senate. Good chance the Dems lose the House by a decent margin but hold onto the Senate by the skin of their teeth.
Buh, buh, buh 538 says dems are slightly favored to win the senate! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/
A 538 tweet after the election...
"Updated Senate tally 3 days after election is Rs 52 seats and Ds 44 seats. Not all Senate races have been called due various issues including legal challenges by losing GOP candidates. Critics on Twitter have criticized 538 polling and research. We are responding. 1/87"
More criticism can be found in the tweet thread. A tweet summarizes it as "This is fcuking dumb. 87 tweets! You have a website - publish this shit there!" 538 does not reply to such comments. But a self-styled 538 supporter-fan does. "ICYMI - You misspelled your profanity."
not if the democratic party has any say in the matter!
It's not that crazy. The map is favorable to the Dems, there aren't any surefire pickups for the GOP and in the most vulnerable seats they've run awful candidates. I'd be pretty surprised if Fetterman lost to Oz at this point. Kelly is reasonably popular in Arizona and Masters is a dipshit. Take those two and you just have to win 2 of GA/NV/NH to hold the Senate. Good chance the Dems lose the House by a decent margin but hold onto the Senate by the skin of their teeth.