I thought about this in the shower yesterday. In those kinds of situations, you're best off with your plan A because it often ends up in a game of rock paper scissors. If you have no evidence of your opponent trying to be tricky, you might as well start with your best strategy
The Monty Hall problem: If you're trying to guess the right option and an option you didn't guess is revealed as the wrong option, your odds of being right increase if you change your guess after you find that out
But what if your opponent knows that your meta-strategy is to go with plan A?
Hopefully you get a second round and in the second round you have that piece of information. In a lot of competitive realms (Smash, BJJ, I assume other people compete in other things), you get a read on your opponent (e.g. "they always jump from ledge") and then you can counter the counter. Countering the counter as a first strategy is a low % approach.
Anyway, here's an example of countering (flying knee) the counter (wrestling instead of striking) working https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IAz0GOCh4 (TW: violence)
Nedroid is nostalgic as fuuuuuuuug. One of the gems of internet comics
I fucking love Nedroid. One of the few webcomics out there that hasn't waned in quality
