BREAKING 🇧🇷: Federal deputy Erika Hilton has officially submitted a request to the Foreign Ministry to initiate the extradition of Jair Bolsonaro from the United States. pic.twitter.com/QWY43FLEMS— David Adler (@davidrkadler) January 9, 2023
I think the odds are a little higher in that the US never seemed to have Bolsonaro's back to begin with. I still don't quite understand why, but if Bolsonaro was their guy, either this coup would have succeeded, or (realistically) it wouldn't have been necessary in the first place because they would have just fixed the election. If I had to guess, I think the US probably wants to keep friendly relations with Brazil to prevent it from sliding exclusively into China's corner diplomatically. It still probably won't happen, but Bolsonaro is practically useless to them.
I don't think it's that easy to "just fix the election". There are a lot of people involved in that stuff, especially in a huge country like Brazil. A small, principled minority of people going "Wtf no we won't go along with this" would be enough to cause an international scandal if you tried to do that, and you can't just murk everyone involved.
In general I think people here overestimate the power of the establishment in that regard. Their plans to install Jeanine Áñez in Bolivia failed, same with :guaido: in Venezuela, and we don't know how many of their plans didn't even get that far. Don't get me wrong, the CIA and the US gov have a lot of power and influence, but they're not omnipotent puppet masters. There's way, way too many moving parts and potential points of failure.
I think Bolsonaro was their guy, but they looked at the situation in Brazil and decided there was nothing they could realistically do.
Also that Bolsonaro is more the guy of the national bourgeoisie, so a bulk of the boug (the international boug) aren't really into him. Goes for Trump a bit, but to a much lesser extent cause he can get away with more cause he's so deep in the imperial core.
China, and also Russia. BRICS is coalescing into a real economic and geopolitical bloc and the US knows anything too extreme at this moment could tip Brazil into the camp of Russia and China
.01%
Same reason the feds won’t prosecute Trump, they don’t want to set a precedent for this.
I think the odds are a little higher in that the US never seemed to have Bolsonaro's back to begin with. I still don't quite understand why, but if Bolsonaro was their guy, either this coup would have succeeded, or (realistically) it wouldn't have been necessary in the first place because they would have just fixed the election. If I had to guess, I think the US probably wants to keep friendly relations with Brazil to prevent it from sliding exclusively into China's corner diplomatically. It still probably won't happen, but Bolsonaro is practically useless to them.
Yeah Biden was congratulating Lula as soon as the elections ended and was very unambiguous
And Biden condemned the coup attempt pretty fast. I definitely think there will be an extradition, maybe some deal in exchange for Bolsonaro.
I don't think it's that easy to "just fix the election". There are a lot of people involved in that stuff, especially in a huge country like Brazil. A small, principled minority of people going "Wtf no we won't go along with this" would be enough to cause an international scandal if you tried to do that, and you can't just murk everyone involved.
In general I think people here overestimate the power of the establishment in that regard. Their plans to install Jeanine Áñez in Bolivia failed, same with :guaido: in Venezuela, and we don't know how many of their plans didn't even get that far. Don't get me wrong, the CIA and the US gov have a lot of power and influence, but they're not omnipotent puppet masters. There's way, way too many moving parts and potential points of failure.
I think Bolsonaro was their guy, but they looked at the situation in Brazil and decided there was nothing they could realistically do.
Also that Bolsonaro is more the guy of the national bourgeoisie, so a bulk of the boug (the international boug) aren't really into him. Goes for Trump a bit, but to a much lesser extent cause he can get away with more cause he's so deep in the imperial core.
China, and also Russia. BRICS is coalescing into a real economic and geopolitical bloc and the US knows anything too extreme at this moment could tip Brazil into the camp of Russia and China