Tbh I think Putin is probably regretting the fuck out of all of this, he was probably duped by his generals into thinking it's gonna be over in a few months. Also Ukraine was duped into thinking they were gonna get proper support from the West and here we are now.
Well Russians were boasting it was gonna be over by summer 2022 or whatever so it's definitely not all going according to plan. I agree that long term Ukraine doesn't have a chance but it's harder than the Russians were expecting for sure.
Russian randos. Never saw official Russian government sources claiming it was all gonna be over by summer. Stop taking the claims of random Russian commenters so seriously as if they have any extra knowledge or power
The Ukrainians are now admitting that the hammer is about to fall on them
The UA Defence Minister (Reznikov) who gave that quote about a 500k strong spring offensive has a poor track record of telling the truth. He recently claimed that Russia was covertly launching a second wave of mobilization, despite no such thing happening, and is often in the news hyping up the threat of Russian forces as a justification for why Ukraine needs more western weapons.
500 thousand is going to be the approximate number of all Russian forces deployed to Ukraine after all conscripts are trained, and there is no way all of them are going to launch an attack at once. Both because it'd be stupid and because the actual number of soldiers available for any offensive will be significantly lower than the total given the need to maintain reserves and defend.
Maybe the spring will bring a Russian capture of Bahkmut and further gains in the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk direction, but most accounts of the ongoing fighting makes it seem more likely that we'll see a continuation of the World War 1 style trench warfare than anything like an Operation Bagration. Regardless, if Russian leadership think the strategic defeat of the Ukrainian Army is imminent their relatively modest and conciliatory statements regarding peace don't show it.
Destroying the Ukrainian army and inducing their government into unconditional surrendering is by far and away the most humiliating outcome for the west and beneficial for Russia. If Russia had the capacity to do that in the next few months, I can't see any reason why they wouldn't as I don't think the prospects of blowing up a few Leopards and F-16s in the future is worth continuing a costly and destructive war.
Destroying the Ukrainian army and inducing their government into unconditional surrendering is by far and away the most humiliating outcome for the west and beneficial for Russia..
It really isn't. Say tomorrow the Russians just annihilate the Ukrainian army and waltz into Kiev. Congratulations, you've won a decades long insurgency!
Not sure what "proper" support from the west would be. They've done everything short of sending in regular troops. As far as Putin, I think he had to know that he was never going to de-nazify Ukraine, because it's full of them and the invasion just made more, and he probably never truly believed he would demilitarize it, either. I think Russia has accomplished what it set out to do, establish a buffer between itself and NATO on its souther border.
They have secured a land bridge to Crimea, unblocked the water to Crimea, destroyed Azov Battalion & retaken a bunch of territory in the Donbas. They have achieved or are achieving all their goals.
The only people who think Russia is losing are people who believe Russia’s goal is to annex all of Ukraine
I think their ideal would be to annex all of "Novorossiya". So they're at like 50% right now. Though I can see them scaling back that goal to just the four oblasts they have.
If literally killing every single Nazi doesn't denazify a country, what would even work? A cultural shift perpetually reinforced from the outside? I think that's just religion...
Basically the only way to de-nazify is to do what the Soviets did in East Germany. Massive culling of the state apparatuses, large scale re-education, sending all the open Nazis to prison or execution.
They would have occupy the nation for decades and annex it, so I don’t think they are going to be able to, no.
However I won’t cry over nationalist battalions getting liquidated left and right. Russia will likely break the political and organized power of the NATO-backed Nazi organizations, but there will be lingering Nazi ideology in Ukraine (especially Western Ukraine) for a very long time
As fun as it is to talk about Russian military dunking on American over-built and over-priced weapons, we have to remember that any large bureaucracy in a capitalist country is going to inevitably be taken over by dumbasses.
Land connection from Crimea to the districts that are now effectively Russian is a win though, the circumstances and side effects might be pretty bad though.
Tbh I think Putin is probably regretting the fuck out of all of this, he was probably duped by his generals into thinking it's gonna be over in a few months. Also Ukraine was duped into thinking they were gonna get proper support from the West and here we are now.
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Well Russians were boasting it was gonna be over by summer 2022 or whatever so it's definitely not all going according to plan. I agree that long term Ukraine doesn't have a chance but it's harder than the Russians were expecting for sure.
Russian randos. Never saw official Russian government sources claiming it was all gonna be over by summer. Stop taking the claims of random Russian commenters so seriously as if they have any extra knowledge or power
Pretty sure there were pretty high up people claiming that. Might be misremembering can't really find any sources from a few minutes of googling.
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don't they say that every other week
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Nah, they usually brag about how Putler is about to run out of missiles or how some overengineered wunderwaffe from Burgerland will turn the tide.
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The UA Defence Minister (Reznikov) who gave that quote about a 500k strong spring offensive has a poor track record of telling the truth. He recently claimed that Russia was covertly launching a second wave of mobilization, despite no such thing happening, and is often in the news hyping up the threat of Russian forces as a justification for why Ukraine needs more western weapons.
500 thousand is going to be the approximate number of all Russian forces deployed to Ukraine after all conscripts are trained, and there is no way all of them are going to launch an attack at once. Both because it'd be stupid and because the actual number of soldiers available for any offensive will be significantly lower than the total given the need to maintain reserves and defend.
Maybe the spring will bring a Russian capture of Bahkmut and further gains in the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk direction, but most accounts of the ongoing fighting makes it seem more likely that we'll see a continuation of the World War 1 style trench warfare than anything like an Operation Bagration. Regardless, if Russian leadership think the strategic defeat of the Ukrainian Army is imminent their relatively modest and conciliatory statements regarding peace don't show it.
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Destroying the Ukrainian army and inducing their government into unconditional surrendering is by far and away the most humiliating outcome for the west and beneficial for Russia. If Russia had the capacity to do that in the next few months, I can't see any reason why they wouldn't as I don't think the prospects of blowing up a few Leopards and F-16s in the future is worth continuing a costly and destructive war.
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It really isn't. Say tomorrow the Russians just annihilate the Ukrainian army and waltz into Kiev. Congratulations, you've won a decades long insurgency!
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Not sure what "proper" support from the west would be. They've done everything short of sending in regular troops. As far as Putin, I think he had to know that he was never going to de-nazify Ukraine, because it's full of them and the invasion just made more, and he probably never truly believed he would demilitarize it, either. I think Russia has accomplished what it set out to do, establish a buffer between itself and NATO on its souther border.
They have secured a land bridge to Crimea, unblocked the water to Crimea, destroyed Azov Battalion & retaken a bunch of territory in the Donbas. They have achieved or are achieving all their goals.
The only people who think Russia is losing are people who believe Russia’s goal is to annex all of Ukraine
I think their ideal would be to annex all of "Novorossiya". So they're at like 50% right now. Though I can see them scaling back that goal to just the four oblasts they have.
If literally killing every single Nazi doesn't denazify a country, what would even work? A cultural shift perpetually reinforced from the outside? I think that's just religion...
Basically the only way to de-nazify is to do what the Soviets did in East Germany. Massive culling of the state apparatuses, large scale re-education, sending all the open Nazis to prison or execution.
Think that the current "representative" "democracy" form of Russia is still capable of that?
They would have occupy the nation for decades and annex it, so I don’t think they are going to be able to, no.
However I won’t cry over nationalist battalions getting liquidated left and right. Russia will likely break the political and organized power of the NATO-backed Nazi organizations, but there will be lingering Nazi ideology in Ukraine (especially Western Ukraine) for a very long time
4 out of 5 stars isn't that bad.
As fun as it is to talk about Russian military dunking on American over-built and over-priced weapons, we have to remember that any large bureaucracy in a capitalist country is going to inevitably be taken over by dumbasses.
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perfectly balanced incompetence
Land connection from Crimea to the districts that are now effectively Russian is a win though, the circumstances and side effects might be pretty bad though.
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