30k highly- trained mercenaries is quite a lot honestly. Like who knows what will happen but definitely not nothing to start with you can do a lot with that
for the record, mao started with around 10k troops and blossomed that to millions
Mao had a purpose and goal that those millions shared, prigo just doesn't want to lose Wagner by it being absorbed into the regular army
Castro had 6 people and eventually took over the country, but neither situation is remotely comparable
I think I'm just going to not make any serious predictions one way or another and keep an eye on it. For all I know Russia and Ukraine don't even exist and this has been centuries spanning ARG for a new mobile game.
The existence of the Soviet Union to begin with was deep state Soviet propaganda.
In response to the last 24 hours I have lathed myself into the higher dimensions and achieved a state of quantum superposition, as I prepare for bed, I will either awake to a world where Putin holds onto power, or a world where a cartoon man becomes Immortan Joe of the largest nation on earth
But until I awake both realities exist simultaneously and in my dreams I will laugh at the world's collective malding and copium at this fact
Idk if they actually manage to drive into any recognizable area of the Moscow metro area it will be a serious PR disaster, not just to westerners but to wealthy Muscovites who make up significant blocs of support and haven’t had to think about tangible violence. It’s a global city above the fray of war, and has a history of not being taken in advances, so I think the biggest thing is how uncertain anything could go depending how far they get.
30K mercs who fight for money and have no incentive to fight to the last man
30k
wow there are that many? that's fucking massive for a mercenary company. totally coup do a coup with that kinda manpower
yeah this is like a few modern divisions worth of troops isn't it?
Take-driven social media usage means nobody has the self-control and good sense to wait for the dust to settle a bit. We've seen the outbursts of triumphalism from pro-russian and pro-ukrainian posters whenever nearly anything happens, it's absurd.
I do think 30k mercenaries in such a major area (or so very close to it at least) is a bigger deal than you're taking it to be, since at the very least it will make people feel much more unsafe where they likely thought they wouldn't be affected by any of this stuff.
I've been almost 100% checked out of all news for the last 6 months. Can someone ELI5 what's going on to threaten Putin?
If we assume they currently have US backing they could do quite a bit of damage.
They don't need to destabilize Russia, they just need to destabilize Putin enough for his underlings to remove him and put someone more capable and agreeable in charge
At this point, the timeline has gotten so off track, that anything is possible.
The morbid fascination that has filled me is entirely unhealthy.
What's Wagner's plan? How long will those forces stick around just hanging out, or how long will they put up a fight if the RF military deploys against them in force? Will RF units be expected to fire into Russian civilian centers if Wagner troops dig in there, will the RF forces just surround them and try to wait them out, is all this just a misunderstanding and it will turn out that those Wagner convoy rolling toward Moscow were just on an extended R&R with no intention of doing any coup stuff?
Its horrible, I know, but I'm a bit excited about what news will make its way to the public in the next few weeks from all the various sources.
I doubt it, but it depends. Weirder things have happened. I don't think we really know enough to give a definitive answer.
