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Well, Prigozhin gets to live in Belarus instead of being on the wrong end of an Iskander, Wagner forces (in Ukraine at least) will probably get integrated into the Russian military, and SHOOOOIIGUUU and GEERRASSIMOOVV get to keep their jobs. Putin looks like a weak leader but at least things are intact. Also, the front in Ukraine hasn't broken down or anything.
I imagine a ton of things have happened behind the scenes that we either will never know about or will only slowly come to know about in the future.
About as happy an ending to the Wagner saga as we could hope for given the nature and historical horror stories of mercs. Or is it the end...? (Yes. Hopefully.)
And I have it on good authority that Stalin is currently looking down on this situation from heaven and incessantly swearing at these motherfuckers for what they've done to his country.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Here is the archive of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we've collected.
This week's first and only update is here, because I am on my regularly scheduled week-long break that I forgot about until now given all that's going on. Next update will be next Wednesday.
Links and Stuff
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have decent analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the warzone.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist (but still quite reactionary in terms of gender and sexuality and race, so beware). If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Another big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia's army.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
Thinking back on al the NATO wunderwaffen of this conflict, TB2s got destroyed in a month, M777 are having issues with ser Lancet, HIMARS seems less impactful with succesful Russian AD interceptions, Patriot was confirmed to be a joke as expected, but I'm left wondering what happened to the FGM-148 Javelin that was lauded in the initial weeks of the war.
I haven't seen any recent footage at all to the point where the Javelin kind of slipped my mind, any of you know whats up with one of the OG wunderwaffen? Did they run out, are they stockpiling them, do the cope-cages actually work, did the doctrine change and make them less effective?
From my scattered recollections: the actual doctrinal use of Javelins is in infantry squads as part of a large mechanized assault. That's what they were used for in Iraq, for infantry moving alongside tanks and APCs to take out enemy armor that they spot while the tanks destroy static entrenched positions and machine gun nests - which worked great in the context of a continuous advance with air and armor support, when you're encountering tanks one at a time along an actual front line with contact distances in the hundreds of meters and can be constantly resupplied with new missiles, essentially just sweeping up an enemy you already have on the operational backfoot. But this was obviously never the case in Ukraine, so instead they seem to have been used in two scenarios:
Firstly, in Russia's initial dash for Kiev when they had long armored columns travelling single file down main roads, small squads of Ukrainian soldiers would jump out of a bush and hit the column from the side and take out a tank. Then, because the soldiers had no support or cover, the rest of the tanks would immediately return fire and wipe them out. From the NATO perspective this equation made perfect sense, because the soldiers are just as disposable as the launchers and looking at the dollar value of launcher + Ukrainian vs Russian tank + three tankers it's clearly a win. But, the mission was still guaranteed suicide (though whether that would make any difference, when your soldiers are Nazi fanatics or forced at gunpoint or you just don't let them find out, who knows) and then the big armored columns dispersed as soon as the April peace deal failed anyway.
Secondly, they were used in urban combat in Mariupol for guerilla strikes on tanks, another situation which they were not designed for. Compared with an RPG they're very bulky, with each missile on its own weighing similar to a loaded RPG-7, and (most crucially) they have an arming distance that is longer than most urban sight lines that can be used by guerillas. I've seen footage on telegram of a Javelin being fired from above at the rear of a tank and just splattering against the hull without detonating, at the same distance that an RPG would probably have killed the engine. And an RPG you can take a potshot from inside a building and immediately be scrambling away, while a Javelin has to lock on and have a clear firing line for the missile to maneuver out, hugely lessening the survival chances of the attacker. They're a weapon for when you're advancing alongside your tank at street level and your scouts mark an enemy tank in place at the other end of the next street, not for ambushing that exact scenario from the other side. All of which was moot as soon as Azov was driven down into the steel plant.
So their actual ideal use conditions never existed, and even the suboptimal cases they could be used in at all disappeared within a couple of months. Everything since then has been grinding artillery-focused attrition, or house to house infantry clearing in
BakhmutArtyomovsk - and now the counterattack is exactly where I would expect them to start being used again, but so far the majority of attacks seem to be unsupported tank rushes straight into Russian minefields, and though I did hear about smaller infantry units supposedly sneaking around through woodlands towards the Russian lines, there's been nothing about any success from that or whether they had Javelins, or if they'd even encounter anything to use them on or just static defenses. Russia has also been constantly blowing up arms depots, and Javelins sell pretty well on the black market, and some Nazi groups have probably secreted a few for terror attacks in central Europe over the next few years, and the stockpiles of the whole of Europe seem to have been cleared out so maybe the Ukrainians really don't have enough left to make any kind of doctrine out of.100%, the decline of the use of the Javelin corresponds very well to the beginning of the attrition campaign where most Ukrainian troops, if they even see a Russian soldier (which many or even most don't) only see them for a tiny bit before they retreat and start raining artillery on their positions.
We might see them again if Russia decides to go on the offensive but as you say, it's a pretty different ballgame to how things were for both sides over a year ago.
Thinking about the Bayraktars, they are actually good drones and were a game changer in the Azeri-Armenia War, as well as Turkiye's war against the PKK. What both of those scenarios have in common is an enemy that doesn't have much in terms of air defenses or air forces for that matter. Which is why this type of drone also did great in the last Ethiopian Civil War and dealt good damage against the Russians during their thunder runs towards Kiyv.
That's the real problem with wunderwaffen. None of these weapons are useless. They are just not magical solutions to the front because for all the problems of the Russian Army it does amount to more than just a light infantry insurgency.
So do the bayraktar just not work against an actual military with air defense/superiority? I remember hoi4 bros meming them so goddamn hard
From what I understand, yes. This type of drone shines best as an anti insurgency tool. The conditions we saw in the second Azerbaijan-Armenia War were quite unique because despite being a state actor, Armenia had no real answers to the drones. So they became decisive.
There's much debate concerning what exactly the Russians intended to achieve with the initial push into Ukraine, and I'd say the conversation will continue in no small part because the Russians probably left their options open. It was in that key initial phase where Russian columns had substandard support that the TB-2s really shined. And I haven't heard much of them since. Except for drone casualties of course.
Again, the weapons are good. They are just not magic, requiring an entire ecosystem to work. At this point in the war, it seems the TB2s are more of an overpriced reconnaissance tool.
You've got the good (HIMARS), the bad (Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade), and the ugly (Patriots crashing into residential buildings)
Russia stopped lining their tanks up in columns to be sitting ducks from javelin flank attacks
to my knowledge the slat armor cages weren't ever to stop javelins, that was a pure dumbass fabrication using the most reddit brain logic (russia are stupid dummies, ukraine has javelins that attack from above, therefore these cages are a stupid attempt to stop them) and instead the cages were there to stop light drone based attacks
I've seen a video of russian tanks during an excercise before their invasion of Ukraine and they already had the "cope cages", so yeah, it's very probable they're used to protect the tank from loitering munitions.
I guess they decided that they weren’t effective? I haven’t seen a tank with one installed in a long while.
possibly. stormfront and my lib acquaintances were all wheeze laughing about them as if an army has never field tested things before, so it's possible they were tested and found ineffective or generally not worth it
I've seen some pictures of ukrainian armor with their own anti-drone cages recently. The response was to imagineer reasons that they're not ackshully cope cages for the ukrainians but real serious war stuff done by heroes
their laughably pathetic excuse for weapons and equipment
our powerful and well though out armory of efficient killing machines
Yeah, it's incredible how every improvised Ukrainian thing is ingenious and every improvised Russian thing is a sign of them being a collapsing backwater
I remember seeing a lot of javelins failing to launch and just thudding into the ground in front of the shooter, and also some javelins popping immediately on launch or just after. I think they gave away all the old/expired ones and there were a lot of duds before they used them all up.
Its always a pretty good rule of thumb that anything given to another military/government will be the oldest stuff in the warehouse.
No doubt, but it's particularly funny to do it with munitions that seem extremely likely to kill the operator due to age (and/or shoddy construction, anglos only know shirk responsibility, cut corners on contract, eat hot chip and lie)
It just goes to show how unseriously NATO's material support is for this war is. Nothing but an illusion.
I am not an expert, but I think a sturdy "cope cage" combined with reactive armor bricks below it should be able to stop a Javelin missile. Also, I think they have supply issues with Javelins.