This is no honeymoon, the American "left" will never recover from the Harris/Walz combo; every major base of support (demographic/economic) is covered; Black woman with a jovial heartlandish white man standing behind her is the universal password for the legendary "competent American fascism" software update leftists have been prophesying.
They got this shit locked for at least eight years, Walz is suburbanite catnip and Harris has the identity libs eating out her hands, along with big tech, wallstreet, and the zionist lobby who are now methodically eliminating the last holdouts of the post-2016 nascent left movement
There is no credible avenue of leverage here, the libs can effectively respond to any leftist utterance with accusations of racism, misogyny, and purity testing and it will stick. Already we have most liberals being one rhetorical step away from defending Walz unleashing the National Guard on BLM protesters
There is no point in engaging with domestic national politics at this current time, the ball is firmly overseas
The only series of events that can undermine this new DNC paradigm is Israel blowing up the world and the US mobilizing to save it. Not even the collapse of Ukraine can dent it now, since that was "Biden's project"
Hate to say it, but the DNC won a firm generational victory
You miss one important thing. Material conditions will continue to get worse. We are past the point where we can have another Obama pretending everything is just fine while the vast majority can't afford shit. It's not 2008 anymore, they can't pretend the economic shit will get better because people already have 16 years of the opposite.
The damage is done, there is no recovery for them. They will win this election, but people will still be poor and angry, the US economy will still be crumbing and China will continue to improve. Something will have to give.
Yeah and also Harris is more Selina Myers than Obama, I'm not convinced she can even beat Trump, but people will quickly get sick of her if she does. She's having a burst of support only in relation to replacing Genocide Joe's doomed campaign
I’m pretty sure a ham sandwich with a bit of mold on the corner could beat Trump. Hillary and Mr Genocide are some of the only people who could lose to him.
Yeah I agree. Trump has his rabid base of support (around 35% or so). But outside of that, he's really a pretty weak candidate.
That's all true, but my point is that their victory will deradicalize people away from leftism and socialism and instead radicalize them toward the competent fascism the DNC now represents even as it makes them poorer, something will give but the potential of a countervailing force emerging domestically has been foreclosed for at least a decade, unless something major happens overseas
I'm pretty much just copinly admiring the engineering quality of the off-ramp the dems built overnight on the highway leading toward worse conditions
I don't know about that. The things you list going for Kamala and Waltz work electorally, but elections are short and the intervening years are long. Will people give a shit that a #Blackwoman is presiding over the next energy shock? Will folksy Tim win over anybody as Blackrock continues to become the works largest landlord and jacks up rent across the country? Will food inflation and deteriorating health systems go unnoticed because the political leaders can string 4 cogent words together? I doubt it. I think the Democrats have tripped into an electoral win, but as committed neo-liberals they'll still fall face first over every hurdle of actual governance. Their ideology contains no solutions: everything will get worse and the proles are supposed to be grateful for it. That's just not a message with staying power.
Agree with the sentiment, but maybe 2008 is a bad example to use for ”the economic shit will get better”
Nono, I meant it's a good example of it not getting better.
because people already have 16 years of the opposite.
Yeah, I see what you meant now.
I'd also say the optimism of the Obama getting elected era is long gone, but that might be just a me thing, because I see these libs everywhere online acting like it's still the end of history.
Those libs are a minority. Most people are at least aware that shit sucks, even if they don't want to admit it.
As long as they can get away with blaming Republicans or a rotating villain for obstruction the Dems won't have to do shit. "Progressive" Dems were calling Obama out for not doing things he could get away with like firing people and executive orders and libs were still defending him. Libs happily defended his Grand Bargain where he volunteered to cut Social Security payments. There's a lot more people radicalized now to be sure, but the Dems still have a pretty good stranglehold on people's vision of what's possible.
Hate to say it, but the DNC won a firm generational victory
lmao trump was shot in the fucking head on live tv and everyone forgot about it in a week
every time anything sort of happens we all decide [x faction] has won the country for another generation and then within a matter of days another thing sort of happens
To be fair that speaks more to the unique dysfucntion of the Republican party than to the overall state of decay
The Republicans fumbled a once-in-a-lifetime chance to secure political primacy, while the democrats responded (initial civilty overdose aside) with a series of deft political choices that were the correct counterplays everytime
Biden drops out --> Walz inaugurates the "Weird" campaign --> Kamala fakes a snubbing of Bibi while keeping the zionists happy --> Kamala passes over Shapiro for the more popular Walz......four straight Ws in a row, while republicans flatline two weeks after a goddamn assassination attempt, the graph lines are diverging here and the dem line is heading to victory
The Republicans fumbled a once-in-a-lifetime chance to secure political primacy
they didn't fumble, its just no one who wasn't already MAGA gave a shit about Trump being shot. That's why it went away.None of these politicians are popular, because peoples lives are getting worse. Harris/Walz are right now as popular as they will ever be. If they win, their approval ratings are going to be bad, because peoples lives will keep getting worse
Yeah his approval ratings didn’t even go up after being shot. Half the country just went “wish he died lmao”
- no one caring
- Trump not being hospitalized/seriously injured
- the shooter being a white male/typical school shooter type
All made this thing go nowhere. The last 2 are why even republicans are over it lol.
They got this shit locked for at least eight years
Lets not underestimate the Democrats unparalleled skill at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
There was talk of "permanent Democratic majorities" after 2008, and the Obama coalition was much stronger than whatever this thrown-together emergency plan is.
Yea hope nobody takes this as an excuse but part of the reason there wasn't more urgency at the end of Obama second term (other than he was a neolib who never actually wanted to accomplish any progressive goals) was because theybwere operating under the assumption they were never gonna lose the white house again
I don't think that's right -- the "permanent majority" talk died down pretty quickly. There was still overconfidence, just not to such an absurd degree.
It lasted up until at least November of 2016 with everybody referring to Hillary as "future madam president" for a couple months
I'm not sure anyone who is exiting here was really "radicalized" to begin with. Yes, it'll tone down the online rhetoric of some Twitter personalities, but they were always just looking for an excuse to bury their heads deeper in the sand. The people who are really out there doing the work aren't suddenly going to stop organizing and feeding people because a couple of somewhat likeable Democrats got nominated (or elected). When the novelty wears off and everything turns out to be more of the same--austerity politics, forever wars, out of control warming, and no meaningful social reforms--we'll be right back in the same place. The people who are ecstatic about going back to brunch weren't fellow travelers in the first place, and anyone who really was flirting with genuine leftism will quickly be disillusioned. The problem isn't the dismantling of the American left, but rather that there wasn't anything to meaningfully dismantle in the first place. The struggle continues.
I don't know, if they try doing Minnesota-style social democracy on the national level, it will be like giving a small glass of water to someone lost in the desert. People are still going to die of thirst, but they'll die loyal to the party that gave them the sip
I don’t foresee them actually giving them a glass of water though. They’ll give a lot of speeches about how they’ll give you a glass of water, how cool and icey it’s gonna be, but then, wouldn’t you know it, Joe Mansion or the Parmigiantarian said we can’t.
That's a huge if. I agree that if we get some non-trivial SocDem reforms, that might change things. I don't see that happening, though: Walz did a decent job with that kind of thing as governor in a couple of places at least (and at least does seem to give a shit about the working class), but he's not the Presidential candidate. Plus, the whole rest of the national political machine is very solidly against making any concessions to the working class. I don't see Kamala spending all her political capital trying to make that happen, even if she does win. She's given no signal that that would be a priority--quite the opposite, in fact.
I think they'll use the selection of Walz as a cudgel against the left for quite a while (i.e. "we picked the guy you and Bernie wanted, so shut up and fall in line! You can't control everything here!").
We'll see. They've done it before, pre-neoliberalism. It's just such an obvious, intelligent move for the ruling class to make (if they are interested in that sort of thing)
It would really rile up the fascists though
We will indeed. I agree that it would probably cement their prominence in national politics for a generation if they did it, but that's been true for a long time and they've acted like it would be the worst idea ever. Even just the modest reforms that Walz did in his state--free school lunch, guaranteed vacation and parental leave, legalizing cannabis, protection of abortion rights, and some pro-LGBT legislation--would probably lock down the millennial and zoomer vote for them forever. I'll be shocked if they do it, but they've made a few pretty surprising decisions in a row lately.
If it makes you feel better, the American left never recovered from the rug being pulled out from them by the death of FDR and the loss of Henry Wallace in the VP spot.
I’d say he succeeded in defanging the left, but the true death happened with Taft Hartley Act.
Yeah we need to wait for the new candidate smell to wear off before we can make a sober analysis of the new situation
I think the way in which they defeated Bernie in 2020 when he had a serious(likely) chance of winning is what I'd say is the generational "victory" for them.
Bernie sucks and all but people including the DNC apparently realy believed he was a far bigger threat and he wasn't going to bend the knee. Of course the irony in that is obvious, the jokes write themselves etc. Despite all his sucking he was campaigning on far better platform than the alternative, it was no 99 vs 100% Hitler contest like these days.
IMO you shouldn't have any hopes to begin with. Embrace doomerism, the end of the American empire will come through the headlines of 2.0 C of global warming. We all lost a long time ago anyway.
IMO you shouldn't have any hopes to begin with. Embrace doomerism
Trust me, electoralism has never held any truck with me, even when I was a default lib I was the "voting doesn't matter" guy, I'm modulating my tone and beliefs for the benefit of any liberal lurkers here who are liable to fall for this circus
I'm a firm believer in the Hasan Piker school of talking to libs; sometimes you got to get down to their level and analyize shit how they would see it, otherwise if I leaned into my true beliefs they'd either find it incomprehensible or threatening to their sensitivities
Will they better or worsen material conditions? Our organising capacity is tied to the system failing and liberals are incapable of addressing systemic failure. Even if Walz attempts to bring his Minnesota reforms to the federal level, the Supreme Court will nix them and the liberals will side with the institution over their own bills. The most unpopular 2020 primary candidate will fall apart just as Biden did when we called it. Liberals in 2028 will be feeling as electorally deflated as they were in 2024.
The democrats will always be bad which is where I break with DSA. There's no salvaging that party or operating within it or pulling the democrats to the left. Liberals are now just more honest about their politics.
Even if Walz attempts to bring his Minnesoata reforms to the federal level, the Supreme Court will nix them and the liberals will side with the institution over their own bills
This is an important point. The Supreme Court might be the only institution the Republicans control for a few cycles, they're going to use it to the fullest extent they can.
the DNC won a firm generational victory
Maybe a month ago a bunch of people here were saying Trump was a guaranteed winner in November. Let's slow down.
The brunch crowd can think whatever smug, self-satisfied thoughts they want, it won't make conditions deteriorate any less quickly
Lol, sorry but I find it funny we were all "meh" over Trump winning but Harris is making us doom.
Nobody has won anything here, the left would be in just as shit of a position of Trump wins, or Biden has won.
Yeah, none of these people winning is doom or bloom. Its going to be difficult for any president in the foreseeable future to ever be popular, and not have shiy approval ratings, because peoples lives are going to get worse regardless
Honestly I think more people here then we care to admit bought into the Trump accelerationism argument, or at least found Libs so annoying and condescending, that they actually were EXCITED for Trump to win and are now let down that the DNC suddenly seemed to become way more competent.
Here's the thing, if Trump wins and turns out to be as bad as Dems said (as unlikely as that is), I don't think that's gonna do the left any favors, we're small enough a week long fascist purge could just wipe us out and then Libs would just be left cowering. If Trump was just about as bad as he was his first term (much more likely), still, would not be any good for the left, because we already saw what happened the first time, all the baby leftists and progressives got spooked into becoming DNC simps to make the scary Cheetos go away so they could get back to brunch.
Heck, I still think it's unlikely, but I'd say it's slightly more possible things getting shittier under the Dems would be better for the left. People couldn't claim the incremental reforms are working anymore.
I'd say it's slightly more possible things getting shittier under the Dems would be better for the left. People couldn't claim the incremental reforms are working anymore.
I said in 2020 that Bidenand not Trump was the accelerationist candidate. I think Harris is too. A succession of oneterm presidents to show how pointless electoralism is.
My point is just, their are no "generational" victories here.
Heck, I still think it's unlikely, but I'd say it's slightly more possible things getting shittier under the Dems would be better for the left. People couldn't claim the incremental reforms are working anymore.
Is that not exactly what they've been doing during the entire Biden admin? Reminder that they sociologically ended an ongoing pandemic and most Leftists went along with it.
The memory of Trump is too fresh, the threat of him winning next election enough to keep the Libs in a state of frightened simping. If Trump actually gets owned and fades away, we may end up back in the Obama years. I remember a lot of young Libs getting pushed leftward a bit by what a let down Obama was.
As I was saying elsewhere in the thread, the Obama years weren't all that different than now. Obama got away with a lot because he came on the tail end of the Bush years. Occupy was crushed, the Flint water crisis, the ACA, libs were defending his ass all the way. Honestly, it's really been a rerun, especially when people here started simping over that joke of a Student Loan means testing bullshit that they happily threw everyone else under the bus for... all for it to fizzle out. Small miracle people here haven't picked up a torch for the latest plan.
Yeah but it felt like people were actually willing to do stuff under Obama cuz there wasn't this fear that if you raise too much of a stink under him you'll just help Bush get back into office. Occupy did happen. BLM protests did happen.
The threat of Trumps return has a strong pacifying effect. The Palestinian encampment feel like the only major protest that happened under Biden, there were several police violence incidents under him but almost not BLM activity.
The threat of Trumps return has a strong pacifying effect. The Palestinian encampment feel like the only major protest that happened under Biden, there were several police violence incidents under him but almost not BLM activity.
I think that's less to do with Trump and more to do with BLM being largely consumed by the Dems. We're still seeing Cop City protests and whatnot, but people are also getting killed over it while Libs look the other way and Dems pour more money into policing. Maybe protests are becoming less palatable as people realize its direct action that gets things done, but i dunno, could just as easily be people are giving up.
Part of the reason that Dem capture worked though is how many "progressives" and "succs" softened their view on the DNC once Trump was in power. I saw it unfold in every moderate left space I saw, things went from "the Dems suck but we have to vote for them strategically" to "we can push them left once Trump is out" to "OMG BIDEN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OBAMA!"
And once Biden was in office that shit faded a bit a year or so into his presidency, but then reared it's head again once we started getting closer to the next election.
It probably isn't going to matter any way, the western left will most likely continue to be an absolute joke, but if I had to place a bet I would say the western left would actually have very slightly better odds under the DNC.
I really hate it when people make sweeping optimistic claims one way or the other about one candidate or party leading to "shittier" outcomes. It's so vague as to be virtually un-contestable
In my view, the work that needs doing is the same in either scenario, but what changes is the level of disillusionment toward leftist radicalization. I think there's validity to how contented people will end up feeling under harris/walz, but I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing. I get nervous when people get excited about the 'worse' candidate because generally I don't think fast and hot radicalizing fires are sustainable. I don't really have a historical example for this, I just feel like only a handful of states have made the socialist transition successfully and they were all in places where industrialization had yet to really raise living standards
I think the path for a successful US socialist/communist movement is much longer and involves the slow and steady disillusionment that comes from the realization that the system is broken even inder the best of leadership. I just don't think that happens in a sudden and violent reactionary uprising - best case I think liberalism returns more fascistic than ever.
I'm not doomery at all about walz signing on. I think it'll give us opportunity to further radicalize socdems and left leaning libs.
I'm just sitting here thinking about how bad it will always be because no matter who takes power, they'll be continuing their cold war against China :yea:
Hate to say it, but the DNC won a firm generational victory
I think you're forgetting the fact that people's lives will continue to get worse. There's not going to be any advantage to being an incumbent. No president is going to be able to say that's peoole are better off now than four years ago and be believed by normal people. Blue and Red MAGA cults will be the only ones saying how good things are when their person is in office.
Blue and Red MAGA cults will be the only ones saying how good things are when their person is in office.
Exactly, that's all that is required to win, and if normal people try to butt in with reality, General Walz will send in the national guard and smash their skulls
Exactly, that's all that is required to win
Clearly it isn't, or Biden wouldn't have been forced to drop out
The only series of events that can undermine this new DNC paradigm is Israel blowing up the world
Nah, It won't be too long now, the Bernie campaign was itself part of something larger. The Dems are plugging the dam with their fingers.
If the DNC et al had anything left to offer the people they'd be doing it already. The caps are in feeding frenzy mode and the Dems are holding the net but they won't throw it in cuz there's a dude standing in front tossin chum in the water.
There won't be a New Deal, just a new Threat. I wonder what Dem voter turnout will be after 8 more years of that brutality?
I don't think you're wrong in saying the DNC has a firm grip on the near future, my minor point(cope?) is these accelerationist capitalists are driving the DNC and their paradigm right off a cliff. What their destruction heralds iunno but i think things will definitely look different in a decade, and i guess in the end the change I'm hoping for and believe in is that more people see, far more people will know that real change won't happen at the polls.
The future of the DNC is just one long string of people appointed as token members of a past president's cabinet, who were never popular in their own right but somehow end up being machine politicians.
They haven't run anything innovative since 2008 and they likely never will again.
Simple: I'm not voting for zionist cops, they can all suckstart a chainsaw; death to the settlers, infinite 9/11s upon Amerika.
