Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden opened up a 21 percent national lead over President Donald Trump in the three days following news of Trump's positive COVID-19 test result, according to a new poll.
But I hate to underestimate the dark side of the force.
Seriously, I've been looking at what is happening this election cycle, and then back in 2016.
The averaged polling numbers are almost the EXACT SAME, but people keep predicting this insane Biden blowout.
If anything, them overblowing how much he's going to annihilate Trump is going to suppress turnout like I suspect it did in 2016. https://i.imgur.com/hhJKhge.png
Trump getting Covid 30 days before the election is a bit of an X factor though. There was nothing comparable in 2016.
Also, Trump's debate performance hurt him with old people a lot more than the online Left realizes. To us, they both looked like doddering old fools. To the average senior citizen, Trump looked like a big meany bully spazzing out while Biden looked "sane" and "Presidential". Joe looks like how Boomers picture a "President", especially now as they sundown.
I say this all the time, but America has been completely controlled by the Boomers since the 1960s, and it's looking like it the plan going forward is for all of us to go down with them.
"I brought you into this world, so I'm gonna take you out of it", but applied to an entire country.
i know when i was in sunday school they taught me that jesus ascended to heaven by promptly dying again after that whole resurrection bit, so obviously reincarnation is how hes supposed to return to the earth.
i was more making a joke about how wildly different evangelical beliefs are from most other christians on just about every theological topic.
theres overlap, and obviously christianity has loads of alternative diety figures that are worshipped, and the entire organized religion as a whole is a bit sus, but those evangelists are fukkin wonky as hell is my point
Trump supporters are a monolith, they're gonna vote for him no matter what.
I'm more talking independents/third parties that DON'T openly support Trump in public but might vote for him ("the depressed Sanders voters" as the media wants to call them which is so very wrong, but...), those voters are the ones that are like "well if I vote for him and he dies from the virus, that means Pence and... no."
i dont think such rightwing "independents" are a particularly relevant grouping in this election. those sorts of people are all more or less nevertrump sorts, and any remainder is unlikely to be statistically meaningful.
anyone thats left leaning isnt voting for trump. unless theyre up their own ass about accelerationism, at which point they might as well just become a fascist, because itll help prove the point or whatever
the issue is, as you said, a monolith. his being at deaths door simply wont sway the people that are voting for him
If Trump actually died, Pence would win in an absolute landslide, no question. The reason Biden is on track to win bigly is because old people really, really, REALLY are obsessed with decorum. Most of Trump's base is 45-65, cynical Gen Xers. People in their 70s are still wed to the noble statesmen, rational moderate image. Biden fits that to a T, and looking like the Crypt keeper and losing his mind doesn't matter because those older voters also look like death and are losing their minds
Yeah but that’s not all the people who voted for him last election. The people who voted for Trump last election but aren’t wacko QAnon people (or adjacent wackos) are probably having some buyers remorse. I doubt most of them will vote Biden but I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of them find an excuse to stay home this year.
the people who arnt supporting him werent going to support him, regardless of the rona.
the people who are supporting him will support him anyways.
you seem to be underestimating the number of people that have been pipelined further to the right by the trump admin? qanon folks make up a huge proportion of trumps base, and adjacent wackos are the rest of it.
stares at polling in 2016
surely this time...
Seriously, I've been looking at what is happening this election cycle, and then back in 2016.
The averaged polling numbers are almost the EXACT SAME, but people keep predicting this insane Biden blowout.
If anything, them overblowing how much he's going to annihilate Trump is going to suppress turnout like I suspect it did in 2016. https://i.imgur.com/hhJKhge.png
Trump getting Covid 30 days before the election is a bit of an X factor though. There was nothing comparable in 2016.
Also, Trump's debate performance hurt him with old people a lot more than the online Left realizes. To us, they both looked like doddering old fools. To the average senior citizen, Trump looked like a big meany bully spazzing out while Biden looked "sane" and "Presidential". Joe looks like how Boomers picture a "President", especially now as they sundown.
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I say this all the time, but America has been completely controlled by the Boomers since the 1960s, and it's looking like it the plan going forward is for all of us to go down with them.
"I brought you into this world, so I'm gonna take you out of it", but applied to an entire country.
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https://imgur.com/a/3XBxJrf "almost the exact same"
exactly this.
same shit different election, controlled opposition as always
That's where I am. But Trump getting the 'Rona also means some folks might not vote for a "dead man walking," even if they wanted to vote him.
So it's a toss-up.
pretty sure trump supporters are semiconvinced hes a divine apostle sent by heaven to enforce the new word of god upon the heathens or some shit.
and the ones who arnt are in on the grift.
so i dont know that thats a convincing argument
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sounds about right.
he did leave the hospital after three days of covid right?
jesus imagery intensifies
edit: when you think about it, a helicopter is basically just a boulder that floats
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makes sense.
i know when i was in sunday school they taught me that jesus ascended to heaven by promptly dying again after that whole resurrection bit, so obviously reincarnation is how hes supposed to return to the earth.
its just science
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implying that any of that isnt absolutely bananas...
but yeah.
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im fairly certain that supply side jesus is a wholly distinct diety, and thus evangelicals are not actually christian.
like if someone decided to worship an elephant at the local zoo named ganesha, and everything else they just make up on the spot. are they hindu?
People say the same thing about Catholics and "worshiping" Mary. Everyone views the other as a hypocrite.
youre not wrong.
i was more making a joke about how wildly different evangelical beliefs are from most other christians on just about every theological topic.
theres overlap, and obviously christianity has loads of alternative diety figures that are worshipped, and the entire organized religion as a whole is a bit sus, but those evangelists are fukkin wonky as hell is my point
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tbf, all christians are heretics to some other christian.
but yeah he aint wrong
Trump supporters are a monolith, they're gonna vote for him no matter what.
I'm more talking independents/third parties that DON'T openly support Trump in public but might vote for him ("the depressed Sanders voters" as the media wants to call them which is so very wrong, but...), those voters are the ones that are like "well if I vote for him and he dies from the virus, that means Pence and... no."
i dont think such rightwing "independents" are a particularly relevant grouping in this election. those sorts of people are all more or less nevertrump sorts, and any remainder is unlikely to be statistically meaningful.
anyone thats left leaning isnt voting for trump. unless theyre up their own ass about accelerationism, at which point they might as well just become a fascist, because itll help prove the point or whatever
the issue is, as you said, a monolith. his being at deaths door simply wont sway the people that are voting for him
If Trump actually died, Pence would win in an absolute landslide, no question. The reason Biden is on track to win bigly is because old people really, really, REALLY are obsessed with decorum. Most of Trump's base is 45-65, cynical Gen Xers. People in their 70s are still wed to the noble statesmen, rational moderate image. Biden fits that to a T, and looking like the Crypt keeper and losing his mind doesn't matter because those older voters also look like death and are losing their minds
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Yeah but that’s not all the people who voted for him last election. The people who voted for Trump last election but aren’t wacko QAnon people (or adjacent wackos) are probably having some buyers remorse. I doubt most of them will vote Biden but I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of them find an excuse to stay home this year.
thats my point though?
the people who arnt supporting him werent going to support him, regardless of the rona.
the people who are supporting him will support him anyways.
you seem to be underestimating the number of people that have been pipelined further to the right by the trump admin? qanon folks make up a huge proportion of trumps base, and adjacent wackos are the rest of it.
there are no moderate republicans anymore
Trump had a 30% chance of winning in 2016 according to the polls, what point are you making
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