Everyone keeps saying that Biden has it in the bag, but that’s what they said last time for Hillary. I have this weird feeling he’ll somehow worm his way to victory.
Everyone keeps saying that Biden has it in the bag, but that’s what they said last time for Hillary. I have this weird feeling he’ll somehow worm his way to victory.
The thing about 2016 is, the signs were there that Hillary was in trouble, it's just no one wanted to believe it. People knew Hillary was going to win, so they disregarded all the evidence pointing to a really tight race in the upper midwest. What was 538 saying right before the election, Trump had like a 30% chance of winning? That's pretty good plus he had a few things break his way. If Hillary wasn't such an arrogant ass who loved the smell of her own farts or if she had better advisors than Robbie fucking Mook, she would have spent more time in places like Wisconsin and Michigan and probably would have won the thing.
I think it's a really bad take to say "well polls were wrong in 2016 so maybe they're wrong now too". No, the difference is Biden is showing to have much more significant leads in the key swing states than Hillary did. Assuming a fair election, right now Biden is pretty strongly favored to win and I think unless something significant happens between now and the election I'd bet a lot of money he wins.
Of course the wild card is whether or not it will be a fair election. We all know what's going to happen: Trump will call shenanigans and the GOP will push the courts to give Trump the win. Whether or not that works, your guess is as good as mine.
I strongly agree with Matt Christman on this... if on election night it shows Trump winning (because we won't have much mail in ballots counted, which I think will break heavily for Biden), Trump will simply declare himself the winner because "we always get the winner on election night"... a dumb argument that I could actually see resonating with a lot of Americans.
They wrote an article literally titled "Trump is just a normal polling error away from victory"
Silver and 538 get a lot of shit, and their punditry should be avoided (as should most punditry...or at least, don't take it very seriously), but their model seems to have been the most accurate of any of them in 2016. And they were getting flak back then before the election for not "giving" Mother near-certain odds. Such was the state of things then. It was shit.
The polls are just as bad this time as they were in 2016. People made the exact same arguments to cover for them being intentionally wrong.
Everyone in media outside of OANN wants Trump gone. They use polling to make it look like he's guaranteed to lose as a way to try to depress turnout. They do this by using insane turnout models that assume that electorate will be even more favorable to Democrats than in 2008.
The "peaceful transition of power" bullshit is just a way to file up liberals in case Trump wins. They are just copying what the Republicans did constantly under Obama. It's "have you stopped beating your wife?" level discourse.
If Biden was actually a sure thing with a 10 point lead, there wouldn't be so much COPE and hedging going on by the media.
☝️chud☝️
Lib
Which is to say they are correct
Hillary was up by +10 at this point 4 years ago. People focus on the final polls, which were adjusted to save face, and not the in-race push polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
She had a 90% chance of winning till the Comey Letter came out and she had a 70% chance of winning. She was expected to win the popular vote by like 3.6%, she won by like 2%. That's normal. You can see the predictions by date if you want
Garbage in garbage out. The Comey letter did not change anyone's mind
The polls dipped immediately once it came out. If it made some people cynical and stay home that affects turnout