I imagine in terms of medical care access and affordability or welfare stimulus, practically negligible, but in terms of CDC funding, science literacy, public policy, and general preparedness, it would be a whole lot better put together.
So I'd say... 10% fewer deaths? 200K vs. 220K deaths sounds about right.
Regarding your second point, I feel the most important aspect of the US' COVID response that doesn't get enough attention is that because of how our government is set up, we've had every state/county/city/ ZIP code all doing their own things, which is of course a recipe for disaster when dealing with a pandemic. It's a massive, massive failure of the "states rights" approach to things. But at no point in the last year have I heard anyone suggest maybe COVID shows our system doesn't work. It should be fucking obvious to anyone that you don't solve a pandemic at the local level. If Hillary was president the right would just be going on and on about "federal overreach" and the Dems would have balked.
COVID has shown the world that the US is completely incapable of adapting to changing circumstances and even just beyond socialism vs capitalism, it's gonna be what bring this country down. Americans would rather let this country collapse than admit that maybe the way our government is set up isn't absolutely 100% perfect.
Yeah, it really highlights how fucked up it all runs, but nothing really has changed lol. I was hoping when everyone was reading stories about how local, state, and federal orgs, as well as private companies, were all fighting to outbid each other on masks or ventilators it would have woken a few people up to it but we've already moved past that