We have exceeded 1.5c warming.
"I think it's safe to say that both 2023 and 2024 temperatures surprised most climate scientists - we didn't think we'd be seeing a year above 1.5C this early," says Dr Hausfather.
"Since 2023 we've had around 0.2C of extra warming that we can't fully explain, on top of what we had expected from climate change and El Niño," agrees Helge Gößling, a climate physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany.
.2C of extra warming since 2023.
substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to hold global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change - The Paris Agreement
- ShowI strongly recommend this book from last fall, there's an extremely thorough recounting of the route that got climate wonks that go to these summits to all quietly embrace the idea that it's ok to pass any announced target as long as there is some lip service to bringing temperatures back down to the target.
Maybe the most aggressively cited text I've ever read, and is a serious investigation into this apocalypse libs and fash are holding hands walking us in to.
like i said in the climate stalin thread yesterday, we're going to have to do intentional geoengineering at this point, i think it's our only shot left at this point barring a sudden sweeping socialist revolution across the globe, and even then we would still need to do it
I agree, I wonder when governments will start. And I wonder how well it will go
it's got its problems, but I think The Ministry for the Future by Kim Robinson is was 100% right about this, there will be some massive heatwave in the next decade or so that kills millions in somewhere like India that will make the country take unilateral action which will open pandora's box. as for how well it will go, i think it's impossible to say. we dont have good enough models about earth's climate to say with any degree of confidence other than stuff like "will probably cause mass famines in x number of regions in the world due to drought, and cause terrible natural disasters in others. will probably lower the temperature though"
Robinson’s interview on revleft really convinced me he did the homework to accurately portray a realistic best-case scenario (note: best case in that he still has massive amounts of hopium that is technically possible).
wow, didnt know he went on there lol. his solutions were kind of strange, there would be libsiht like "cryptocoin buts its called ecocoin and actually works as a carbon credit somehow!" and then the next chapter was "children of kali are killing like 100 ceos per month with drone swarms and its... working..." honestly i wouldnt even mind it if he would have put in some MLs taking over countries
It’s great listen. It’s what got me to read the book. On it he admits the liberalism present is an acknowledgement of his material circumstances and that it wouldn’t be authentic for him wrote more radically because it he can’t mantle the perspective of a person less comfortable. The dude is totally self-aware. His hopium is him writing from a self-acknowledged position privilege because he didn’t want to larp (paraphrasing).
In the interview he talks about how his partner is a scientist and most of solutions are based on conversations with them. It’s been a minute so I’ll leave it at that to avoid misrepresenting.
that's actually really cool, that level of self awareness is really rare imo. i should say i really enjoyed the book, and if if someone is on the fence about it i would recommend reading it, was more just saying i cant fully endorse the book lol
Chiming in to second that, just read it. Not endorsing everything, but it’s a net endorse as opposed to a net “ignore this”.
Only one state in the world that have any sort of productive capacity and top down control over their productive forces to begin this project. But China bad so we'll just die I guess.
No, this isn't an inevitability. We are capable of emitting less CO2. But you see new trucks with 13 miles-per-gallon that will take at least 10 years to get off the road so clearly the threat of change isn't making its way to the market.
i meant under capitalism, which is why i mentioned the fantasy scenario of sudden global socialist revolution lol. capital* doesnt give a shit if civilization will end in 20 years because of this, and the will to push back against capital among the bourgeoisie seems totally gone to me. literally the only place doing anything substainal about it is china, and unless they do some truly crazy geoengineering that saves our asses they cant do it alone.
*
referencing this couple of thought provoking essays about viewing capitalism as being under the control of capital itself as an alien entity rather than being under the control of the bourgeoisie. first one here: https://ianwrightsite.wordpress.com/2020/09/03/marx-on-capital-as-a-real-god-2/
I'm one sentence in and it made me think of something that really really resonated with me when I first saw it a few years ago:
There is a specific aspect of Marx’s theory of capitalism that I believe isn’t sufficiently emphasised. And that is Marx’s view that capital is an actual entity — a being with a mind of its own that operates independently from us.
There's an episode in Tuca and Bertie s2 called "The Moss" which uses moss as a metaphor for capitalism in this manner. it's a moss growing on things, and you can't reason with it or try to make it empathize. it's just moss. ngl one of the most succinct and perfect metaphors for capitalism I've seen in media
Yeah that's a good one. It's a bit more abstract than moss though, requires a baseline level of scientific literacy and isn't as visually striking (to the extent that it's visible at all)
it's a moss growing on things, and you can't reason with it or try to make it empathize
yeah, i really think this is so much better to describe what we face than so much of the stuff I've seen said online, there isnt enough emphasis on the fact that the bourgousie are in a way forced to behave in the way that they do (outside of like, the weird pedophile rings, thats entirely on them)
Thanks for linking that article. I’ve been trying to find it again for a while now.
It really recontextualizes the nature of capital. Tbf, I read it on acid at a formative age, but it just makes so much sense.
well if it makes you feel better ive never done any hallucinogenic lol. regardless, one of the things i find most interesting about it is viewing capital in this way actually gives an incentive to the bourgeoisie to bring down capitalism. idk if you could actually use this to convince someone in that class, but more engels types in our desperate situation certainly wouldnt hurt, so i say if you happen to know a member of the bourgeoisie it's worth a shot to send it to them lol
It does a bit lol, but I wasn’t torn up about it either.
Precisely, the clerics of SQL do so much to convince their patrons to appease the deity rather than engaging in rational self interest. The rich don’t actually directly engage these days, the clerical caste has more control over capital than those who own it under capitalism.
I fully agree with the "we must act now" sentiment.
With that said.
Imagine what if we did something back when Al Gore made this an international talking point 19 years ago
Imagine if people paid attention when Rachel Carson wrote about it in the 60's
Gotta be real, considering the last 20 years or a bit more when it's been fairly widespread info, I kinda doubt it would have made aby difference. Death machine go brrrrr
.2C of extra warming since 2023.
was this before or after that big regulation on cargo ships? i remember watching some video that was claiming that might be the largest part of why there's so much sudden warming
Yeah we were already geoengineering the earth to an extent and we're suffering termination shock rn
