Image is of container ships waiting outside the canal. While there is usually some number of ships waiting for passage, the number has increased significantly lately.

In order to move ships through the Panama Canal, water is needed to fill the locks. The water comes from freshwater lakes, which are replenished by rainfall. This rainfall hasn't been coming, and Lake Gatun, the largest one, is at near record low levels.

Hundreds of ships are now in a maritime traffic jam, unable to cross the canal quickly. Panama is attempting to conserve water and have reduced the number of transits by 20% per day, among other measures. The Canal's adminstrators have warned that these drought conditions will remain for at least 10 months.

It is unlikely that global supply chains will be catastrophically affected, at least this year. Costs may increase for consumers in the coming months, especially for Christmas, but by and large goods will continue to flow, around South America if need be. Nonetheless, projecting trends over the coming years and decades, you can imagine how this is yet another nudge by climate change towards dramatic economic, environmental, and political impacts on the world at large. It also might prompt discussions inside various governments about nearshoring, and the general vulnerability of global supply chains - especially as the United States tries, bafflingly, to go to war with China.

After some discussion in the last megathread about building knowledge of geopolitics, some of us thought it might be an interesting idea to have a Country of the Week - essentially, I/we choose a country and then people can come in here and chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants, related to that country. More detail in this comment.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Okay, look, I got a little carried away. Monday's update usually covers the preceding Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, but I went ahead and did all of last week. If people like a more weekly structure then I might try that instead, if not, then I'll go back to the Mon-Wed-Fri schedule.

Links and Stuff

The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.

Resources For Understanding The War

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

Last week's discussion post.

    • MultigrainCerealista [he/him, comrade/them]
      ·
      1 year ago

      I don’t think what you’re saying is wrong, it’s more that I think it’s too convoluted.

      Something like 75% of the worlds oil is in the Caspian basin and this explains most of the past 30 years of US war.

      I think Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, it’s about that oil and the countries in proximity to it.

      This stuff about “finance capital vs industrial capital” I dunno, it’s not wrong I just think it’s a bit too abstract high concept.

      Edit: I can’t reply because the thread is locked but I was speaking too loosely. Basically I mean that general part of the world, the Arabian peninsula, the Fertile Crescent, the Caspian Sea, the various Stan’s.

      It was inaccurate of me to refer to the whole area as the Caspian basin.

      • emizeko [they/them]
        ·
        1 year ago

        that doesn't sound right to me, are you sure?

        Proven reserves in the Caspian Basin are 15.31 billion barrels of oil, or 2.7% of world reserves. It is also estimated to contain some 230–360 trillion cubic feet of gas, or 7% of world reserves. Estimates of possible petroleum reserves vary from as few as 20 billion to as many as 200 billion barrels of oil.

        • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
          ·
          1 year ago

          The US has already won the oil battle.

          This feels a little pessimistic, there's rumblings about US oil production decreasing substantially next year:

          While the EIA and others see U.S. shale production rising through the end of 2024, there are some worrying signs that production may already be slowing. The two main drivers of U.S. shale production, DUC withdrawals and the rig count, are in decline while 82% of wells drilled in 2022 were to replace legacy production. With analysts already warning of an oil price spike later this year, a dramatic drop in U.S. shale production will add significant upside to any rally.

          And also the SPR is almost the lowest it's ever been - in the context of rising oil prices. Business Insider itself is saying that Biden has less and less ammunition now:

          Oil prices are surging again, but the Biden administration's biggest weapon for bringing them down has much less ammunition. Last year, the federal government drained 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as oil prices soared in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the turmoil in energy markets that followed. Flooding the market with all that supply helped bring oil prices down — and helped cool inflation, which had shot up as well.

          Earlier this year, the administration took some steps to start refilling the SPR. But while it has ticked up slightly, the level remains near 40-year lows at about 350 million barrels. That's less than half of the all-time highs from 2010 and about 40% below where it was when the withdrawals began. "America's SPR is the largest in the world and stands ready to deliver on its mission to respond to future supply disruptions, providing relief when needed most," a spokesperson for the Energy Department said in a statement to Insider. But the department didn't specifically address questions on whether the Biden administration plans fresh withdrawals and how much scope the SPR has for additional drawdowns.

          Another US stockpile of oil comes from commercial inventories, which sit at 416.6 million barrels. But that source tends to be more volatile than the SPR and has dropped 21% from a year ago. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices recently hit a 10-month high, having jumped more than 20% since late June, and US gasoline prices hit their highest summertime levels in over a decade, even as the driving season has ended. That came as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced they would prolong their oil production cuts for another three months until December. The stock market has started to feel the ripple effects from rising oil prices. With prices for crude and refined fuels shooting up, investors are growing more concerned that inflation could re-accelerate after more than a year of slowing down. And that could force the Federal Reserve to keep benchmark rates higher for longer, or even raise them further.

          For now, the SPR looks to be a non-factor. Last month, the Biden administration canceled plans to add 6 million barrels back in the reserve, saying the price of oil at the time didn't offer taxpayers a good deal. Prices have since continued to march higher. And Congress nixed its earlier plans to sell 140 million barrels from the SPR over the next three years in a spending bill that was passed in December.

          To be sure, the US can also pump plenty of oil. It became the world's biggest oil producer over the last two decades as the shale boom unlocked huge volumes in Texas, New Mexico, and North Dakota. But the Energy Department recently estimated that the top US shale regions will continue pumping less oil this month, after hitting a record high in July. And over the longer term, the productive capacity of shale wells is looking less robust. Research firm Enverus recently said that the natural drop-off rate in a well's output is much steeper than originally thought. So oil companies must drill new wells at a faster clip just to keep output steady.

          Seems to me that OPEC+ is mounting its offensive and starting to win. They're putting Biden in a zugzwang - continue the course, watch oil prices increase as you use up your supplies, and lose the election, or engineer a recession to bring down oil prices and lose the election.

            • meth_dragon [none/use name]
              ·
              1 year ago

              imo tpp was the US' best shot at a comprehensive and future proof anti china platform, best thing trump did was take it out and the US has been on the strategic back foot ever since

              will be interesting to see the real meat of the biden counteroffensives though, while it seems the initial probing attacks in the tech sector have been bogged down, i feel like brandon's best chances in the economic sector will be in the latam/africa directions. problem is that those places are currently just good for raw resource extraction, value added work there would be risky due to political instability and low quality of human capital. which basically just leaves the imperial core itself.

              problem is that the imperial core has all these domestic problems that seem to be nigh unsolveable barring some kind of a fascist yakubian messiah. how are barely literate, obese, mentally ill military rejects with 900$ rents and a 57 minute commute going to be able to work iphone factory shifts long enough to prop up the falling rate of profit?

              the imperial core should join the BRI, have china build infrastructure for it, then eventually force majeure everything back with a manufactured humanitarian crisis. at this point hopefully latam/africa have developed sufficiently to support supply lines beyond raw resource extraction, at this point the core can then just implement the new monroe doctrine deal and regenerate its labor aristocracy

            • zephyreks [none/use name]
              ·
              1 year ago

              Why is the US even involved in a connection between Asia, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe?

            • PosadistInevitablity [he/him]
              ·
              1 year ago

              The US is enemies with half the nations across land so they had to just use the Suez. It’s barely a new trade route at all at that point.

              Lmfao.

          • Parzivus [any]
            ·
            1 year ago

            It cannot be overstated how huge fracking/shale oil is for US energy independence. I wouldn't be surprised if declining production kicks off a new level of imperialism