I don't know how many people believe that there will be but...
Way back in the ancient times of one and a half months ago, there were some people who thought that everything would keep getting bigger and bigger until you know what happened.
I seriously doubt that there will be enough people who seriously intend to overthrow the government and have the means to do so in just a decade.
Agitation. Organization. That shit takes time. I can't imagine the time it would take organize an explicitly socialist (not succdem) movement in America. Liberalism has a stranglehold on the populace and it's not letting go anytime soon. The road to revolution is incredibly long and we've just begun to (maybe) take the first steps.
A lot of people are pointing to the coming crisis that's going to result in a large group of disgruntled people with nothing to lose. But a disorganized group of angry people cannot spontaneously materialize into a revolution. What's more likely is the succdems will swoop in, kill Rosa a second time, neuter any movements, and save capitalism. I am basing this on the principle that nothing good will ever happen.
A revolution here would require a very high degree of organization and coordination, without which any movement would eventually fall apart, as it has so many times in this country.
Everything's so fucked man.
I see your "Nothing good will ever happen" and raise you a "Trying to predict anything one way or another in this cursed time is a fool's errand."
Tbh a general breakup seems more likely. A slow dissolving as wealthy landowners, corporate entities and eventually states just sort of...do their own thing.
I know I just said predictions are stupid, but my money's on Snow Crashification.
I honestly think balkanization is an inevitability. The South is really sick of being in the same nation as New York and California, and vice-versa. Wouldn't surprise me at all if state secession movements became significantly more mainstream over the next five to ten years.
This rings particularly true if you take a *cough* liberal viewpoint of the situation. If you are a liberal, your general belief is that the power of institutions flows from a consensus of legitimacy. "Consent of the governed" and all that jazz. Here we find ourselves in a situation where Article I of the Constitution (Congress) has enjoyed an average approval rating of 15-20% for the past decade straight. Article II (Executive) has been underwater ever since Trump got elected, and Article III (Judiciary) is clinging just above water at 50% - but with all the reactionaries who have been packed into the judicial circuits, let alone the Supreme Court, it is only a matter of time until they destroy whatever consensus is left in the judicial branch as well.
In other words, the key foundation of liberal democracy, at least in its manifestation as the US constitutional system, is inevitably going to die. The consensus of this system's integrity is waning. These institutions are on a course to irredemably lose whatever legitimacy they claim to have, and when that happens, people will be looking for alternatives. This country is chock full of libs (in case you haven't noticed), so the next institutions they will probably look to are state governments. These would be the most organized and "legitimate" institutions to fill the void left behind by a rogue or discredited federal government.
You're both right. The OP is specifically about revolution, but balkanization or an apocalyptic collapse are two of many outcomes that are on the table before 2030 (though highly unlikely, but more likely than a socialist revolution)
Yeah I keep coming back to Matt's rant on climate change and fascism.
objectively i already knew this but i try not to think about it. tonight's existential dread setting in early o.o
That's totally true, but it's going to take a decade or two if real actual organization to constructively do anything about it, and the timer hasn't even started yet.
You really can't know what will happen but I can tell you that there won't be a Chinese or Cuban style revolution.
There are lots of scenarios. The US could go full fascist for a few years and collapse in on itself, it could balkanize, it could somehow pull off a WWIII win and end up with another Imperialist postwar boom, we could initiate nuclear holocaust etc.
Kinda makes you wish you could grab some popcorn and watch it unfold from the safety of the moon.
Sounds a lil like what the original Lenin believed about his future ;)
So what? In Vietnam, the first communists started to show up in the turn of the 19th centyury, and after a long period where several parties and ideologies co-existed, the formal Communist Party was finally established. And then you have another 15 years to organize, agitate, and planning toward the 1945 revolution.
Revolution is a long, long road, and for a lot of us, if we live long enough to see it happen, we probably won't live long enough to enjoy its fruits anyway. Just don't lose hope, because it will happen.
Yeah, things are gonna have to get so much worse before enough Americans are motivated to stand up and take action.
Like, "mass starvation, mass homelessness and people literally dropping dead in the streets" worse.
I'm 27 and I still don't think I'll see a revolution in my lifetime.
The panics of 1873, 1893, the early 1900s, and the great depression were all probably more severe and uncomfortable than the lives we have now and they resulted in moderate reforms or outright state violence against the uprisings. OP is probably right; we're nowhere near militant and by the time we are, the surveillance state will be hard to beat
