• disco [any]
    ·
    4 years ago

    My prediction? The Patriot party will be a huge success almost immediately, thanks in large part to a profusion of big money donors. The old republican party will collapse under the split, with democrats absorbing the neocon wing of the republican party. This will shift the democrats even further to the right, making them even more into a party with no constituency.

    Within 10 years, the Patriot party will be in charge permanently. sicko-no.png

    • Methamphetamine [she/her]
      ·
      4 years ago

      And we'll have a two party system with two right wing parties just like fucking Poland. :poland-cool:

    • BadWithNames [he/him]
      ·
      4 years ago

      democrats absorbing the neocon wing of the republican party

      No way. Liz Cheney (who IMO embodies this anti-trump neo-con alternative within the Republican Party) hates Trump; But they hate the Democrats more. A more likely alternative is the Republicans being held together by a barely functional alliance of hating both the Democrats and the Patriot Party.

      Hell they might rebrand as some sort of 'Moderate' Party and steal some Blue Dogs.

        • MarxGuns [comrade/them]
          ·
          4 years ago

          Isn't this just the Lib Dems being squeezed out by the Labour and Conservative parties in the UK? In this analogy, Labour is Democrats, Lib Dem is old GOP, Conservative is Patriot Party.

          • Tomboys_are_Cute [he/him, comrade/them]
            ·
            4 years ago

            Polarization baybee. I don't think I like that comparison though, Labour at least can be cool sometimes. I also don't know if it would play out the same. We know 33ish% of Republicans will instantly go to Trump, which for electoral prospects is probably fatal for the new and old party. The Libertarians were more than the difference between Trump and Biden in a bunch of states, another fracturing in the republican party would probably do even more damage.

            That still leaves 66% of Republicans who don't instantly switch allegiances. If they get bolstered by the conservative Dems leaving to join the new "Centrist" party then they would probably do better because America. It's a new political Cool Zone, they sky is the limit but so is Hell.

              • MarxGuns [comrade/them]
                ·
                4 years ago

                I've been more and more convinced that maybe the third worldist are onto something where they say that revolution probably won't happen in the imperial core. Capital is just so strong and labor sits on top of exploitation of other labor and think it is just.

            • MarxGuns [comrade/them]
              ·
              edit-2
              4 years ago

              Yes, that is true. I just assumed the remaining GOPs would be pretty small because of how high the approval rating for Trump within the party. I guess it really depends on that number with what would happen with the GOP.

        • PowerUser [they/them]
          ·
          4 years ago

          Australia changed from FPTP because a new conservative party split the conservative party vote.

        • CrimsonSage [any]
          ·
          4 years ago

          Just to clarify the Republicans didn't kill the Whigs. The Whig party imploded from internal conflict and the Republicans rose from the ashes. The Whigs and Republicans never really ran against each other. That being said the game theory modeling does point to a degeneration to a two party system over the long term in a FPTP system.

            • CrimsonSage [any]
              ·
              4 years ago

              No problem Comrade, the 'common knowledge' is that the Republicans killed the Whigs.

    • star_wraith [he/him]
      ·
      edit-2
      4 years ago

      thanks in large part to a profusion of big money donors

      Nah see, I think the money in the GOP is gonna fall in line hard with the NeverTrump crowd.

      • grisbajskulor [he/him]
        ·
        4 years ago

        100%. Donors prefer 'stable' Republicans like Bush. They'll only go for Trump third party if he actually starts to overtake republicans.

    • Moosegender [he/him]
      ·
      4 years ago

      Did you just say a party that gets the most votes has no constituency?

    • PorkrollPosadist [he/him, they/them]
      ·
      4 years ago

      This is exactly what will happen, and why there is no time left to wait for the revolutionary left to coalesce into a unified party formation of its own.

    • john_browns_beard [he/him, comrade/them]
      ·
      4 years ago

      The only way this does anything is if they run a candidate for president. Any of them that make it into congress will vote with the Republicans 100% of the time.

      Honestly I can really only see this as a huge opportunity for the left to do the same. If they run a presidential candidate, it will be harder to shun the left if we were to run a third (fourth?) party candidate in the general.

    • zifnab25 [he/him, any]
      ·
      edit-2
      4 years ago

      The Patriot party will be a huge success almost immediately, thanks in large part to a profusion of big money donors.

      Unironically, this Third Way shit has been an idea in Washington that's been looking for viability for decades now. Trump will do the Koch thing, but because his base will be evangelical white nationalists rather than NABLA sickos and John Birch dead-enders, it'll gain far more traction early on.

      Within 10 years, the Patriot party will be in charge permanently.

      More skeptical of this, because the new party will be absolutely riddled with scammers. In 10 years, if its still standing, it'll only be thanks to a leader with a longer eye to the future than Donny Don't-Pay.