Permanently Deleted
Some international action on the climate crisis is a good bet. Maybe a new, more aggressive international agreement that the U.S. doesn't join or doesn't play a big role in writing, or China taking a noticeable lead on technological solutions to the climate crisis/providing those solutions to the Global South/helping climate refugees.
This has a huge chance of being the most likely choice as Chinese influence on ISO standards become more felt. The standard winner will gain a huge monopoly where if you want ‘quality’ you will be forced to buy from a Chinese firm since they created the standard. The Chinese government as well as companies are pushing for this route since they joined and quickly became a permanent member of the ISO who has been ‘advocating’ for Chinese lead standards for a while now especially around subjects like AI which they have a mild lead on and view as a core focus area.
Lets be real
The US has a couple of Suez's and a few Chernobyl's already
It's been a real shit 21st Century for America
Also, this article ages better every year:
https://politics.theonion.com/bush-our-long-national-nightmare-of-peace-and-prosperi-1819565882
Yeah the Biden admin just came out today and said they will have 300million vaccination doses ready by the end of July. A competent, normal country would be able to utilize this.
America has been hollowed out socially. What little bits of public institutions we’ve had have been decimated. We’ve alienated our entire population except for those privileged few who have actual reason to care that the system doesn’t fall apart completely. Who is going to get these people out there and vaccinated? Who is going to set up wide scale vaccination sites when we have no public health infrastructure?
Obviously these are rhetorical questions because we know the answer: Nobody is.
The interior of this empire completely hollow. There’s nothing left to hold it up when pieces of it start to crumble.
The UN pressure was largely Canada lead as well. Lol the UK got cucked by a former and a current colony.
Probably a horrendously bungled invasion of Venezuela under Biden which leads them not only quickly withdraw but end sanctions as well.
I'm thinking like what happened with the security team under trump but on a larger scale.
The test run already happened with Operation Gideon and they failed spectacularly
Maybe - symbolically at least - when the Belt & Road is completed? Or since it's not really something that will be "completed", maybe when some sort of informal milestone is hit? Maybe when the IMF folds because no one wants to take out loans from them anymore.
The US isn't going to be a gilded puppet anytime soon. Their decline will be different than that of the UK & France without some power to take its leash and make it do tricks.
Also where does this wishful thinking of China superpower come from? What has China done to give y'all the impression they even want that? They've acted entirely defensively for the past century but I'm sure that's just a prelude to them taking the mask off and ordering the world about.
Most people here know nothing about China, live in the US and idealize the projection they have as an opposition to US power. It’s like the satanists who still buy entirely into the ideology but just choose to take the opposite side :zizek:
Hopefully in a few years as people learn more about China many will figure out it’s not some terrifying super spy state or some bastion of international socialism but a relatively boring if functional state that takes a paternalistic approach to handling it’s citizens and sort of hates everyone else in a resentful way after the century of humiliation.
I think its a bit like reaction to 'black power'---an assumption 'black power' would be as bloody as white power is. when "we" had the power it was used imperially, and we assume anyone else in a similar position would do the same thing.
most evidence points to China not taking up the mantle of hegemon or leader, but I totally get why people wish they would. The current crises demand global change and its daunting as fuck to acknowledge we're going to have to go at it without some USSR analogue backing us up
I think the most likely path is China attempting to revive it’s role as a mostly content tribute state that you are ‘forced’ to deal with. It has a lot of historical precedent so I don’t think it’s that big of a gamble.
when they're in a secure position again Asia's gonna pretty naturally gravitate around them but who knows what that's gonna look like in the 21st century. Tribute's a little archaic lol
bit idea: japan being forced to produce an annual tribute of anime
Who knows, a lot of Asia hates China more than the average war hawk in the US does. It’s pretty obvious that even without the US there are lots of attempts to ‘contain’ China to prevent it from reaching that point. Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia all seem to have a relationship to keep China as an equal partner instead of a superior one. India has a very tense border with China because of water restrictions in Tibet as well as most of the southern neighbors who China ‘encourages’ by building dams. I also doubt the Russian/Chinese friendship will continue for too much longer.
Tribute still happens, it’s just called luxury now where you pay more for the same thing.
Yea this is it. The US' level of development, natural geography, resources, and land mass gives it a certain baseline level of power that it's not really ever going to fall below world power status. It can stumble, and fuck up really hard and still recover in a way a smaller, weaker state cannot. Even if China overtakes the US, China lives in a much tougher neighbourhood than the US and is hemmed in on all sides by US allies or countries that will fall into America's orbit as a way to balance against China. China has to deal with Japan, South Korea, Russia, India, Australia and other minor regional powers in its immediate area. Who could conceivably be a counter weight to America in the American hemisphere? Venezuela? Lol.
Anyone remember the Panama Canal? Let's bring back talking about the Panama Canal. I'm feeling like 2021 is the year of PanamaPosting.
Something in Latin America where China comes in and makes the US irrelevant is a good bet
- U.S. starts a proxy war in Latin America
- China funds/arms the opposition
- U.S. loses
Handing over the canal to Panama - despite being the obvious right thing to do and by the 70s the canal wasn't nearly as it was in prior decades - was a big reason Reagan beat Carter. US Americans are the worst.
Very interesting story here, reading about it now. Thanks for the heads up.
I was being about 60% facetious with my Panama Canal comment but after reading this:
Initial findings of the commercial analysis conducted by HKND Group indicate that the combined effect of growth in east–west trade and in ship sizes could provide a compelling argument for the construction of a second canal, substantially larger than the expanded Panama Canal, across Central America. In the 2020s, growth in global maritime trade is expected to cause congestion and delays in transit through the Panama Canal without a complementary route through the isthmus, and by 2030, the volume of trade that a Nicaragua Canal could serve would have grown by 240%.[31]
it makes me think I am more prescient than I give myself credit for.
The Suez Crisis backfired so bad Nasser could basically nothing wrong for most Egyptians. The Suez Canal was the sole remaining area still occupied by British soldiers at the time.
China isn’t seeking to be the “sole great power” they primarily just want the power to keep US from interfering in East Asian affairs.
China doesnt even have to do much
America has slowly been killing itself with bath salts for the last few decades
The American Suez will be the next time the US builds enough political capital among the ruling class to actually attempt an outright ground invasion of another country, with the primary candidates being Syria, Iran, and Venezuela
