First of all I will refer you to this comrade's comment, who I think is correct about the general situation and it's a great TL;DR.
But since Belarus is in the megathread now, I thought I'd share my personal experiences growing up there, being very political, and sort of changing my mind a little after I learned a more about imperialism let's say.
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Belarus is low-key Syria of Europe. Historically, it had been the buffer state between East and West, and suffered greatly for it, especially during the World Wars. 1/4 of the population had been killed during the second one by some estimates. Imagine.
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Pompeo visited Belarus in July. No one of that caliber visited Belarus in... ever? Offering oil and gas, the stuff Belarus gets from Russia. It's not even sus, this is just open tug of war between the US and Russia. All that CIA stuff? For sure. I know a few people who work in the USAID in Minsk. They think they are doing a democracy while advancing the World Bank's and the IMF agenda.
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I was the "opposition" in my early 20s in Belarus. Campaigning for democratic candidates, getting arrested, all that. Lukashenka is a fuck, no doubt about it. People were murdered and disappeared on his or his cronies' command. He has his hand in all kinds of businesses. Tobacco, fish, who knows what else. Very little goes without his say business-wise. His oldest son runs state owned Belarusian lottery last time I checked. He fucked the constitution to let himself get reelected indefinite amount of terms.
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Here's the problem from a comrade's perspective. I wouldn't vote for Lukashenka, but I wouldn't vote for any of the other candidates either even if the elections were transparent as glass. What do they want? They fucking want more privatization. That's what they want. They think democracy is more capitalism, to caricaturize it a little. Because they don't know what kind of hell full neoliberal capitalism is yet! Because state stuff is ran "inefficiently." And yea, it is ran inefficiently. But giving state factories to some fucking dudes with money--that'll be Russia in the 90s all over again. A bunch of well connected people buying up state property for pennies and doing an oligarchy. This will benefit a different group of people, but not the Belarusian people.
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That's what this proxy fight between the US and Russia is about in my opinion. Who gets to control of Belarusian assets. Whichever side wins, Belarusians loose, whether they know it it or not. Yea Lukashenka has to go. But there seems to be no one to replace him this time around. It's fucked like this, whatever happens it's a loss.
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In other words and to sum up, just as Belarus is in a way stuck in the semi-socialist past, which now I am realizing, healthcare-wise and certain other things-wise is superior to the US for example, especially for the poorest layer of the population--as much as it is stuck in the past it is also stuck in the sense of "class consciousness." A lot of people have come to believe, through American movies and propaganda, that freedom is indeed free commerce. I was one of them for a very long time.
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There are communist parties in Belarus, but they are weak, very weak, they are not a big force for many reasons. Younger people think it's just stupid nostalgia. Older people remember standing in lines for food. (Belarus, compared to Russia post 1986 was doing relatively well in that regard actually). So no one takes Marx seriously in there. That stuff is not taught there either anymore.
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Make no mistake. There are still some socialized aspects in Belarus, but it is full blown capitalism like anywhere else. Wage labor. 30 types of ice cream that you can buy from a couple of huge supermarket chains owned by a couple of people.
I'll answer your questions, sorry for this turning out rambly.
I think calling this a color revolution is unfair and it's a take I've been seeing a lot on Twitter coming from mostly cis men. women's rights and LGBT rights are things that have needed to be addressed for so long in Belarus, but lukashenko does not budge on either.
should those groups just sit down and deal with reduced rights and status within their country just because of the tug of war occurring between russia and the west? for anti-capitalist purism?
my understanding is that the people (barring some young ones) don't want the EU, nor do they want russia. they just want to be Belarus.
People can be justifiably upset at the conditions in a country, while carrying out a color revolution. In fact, that is necessary. Every reactionary movement must be grounded in genuine discontent, otherwise they would not have sway with the masses. It's the case for both "pro-democracy" imperialist movements and fascist movements.
The Hong Kong protesters were right to be upset at the capitalist exploitation in Hong Kong. They were wrong to align with imperialists, who will only deepen the capitalist contradictions in their country. Same with Belarus.
Judging by the response from mainstream media & Germany, imperialist powers must have significant influence over these "pro-democracy" groups. If this movement is successful, it will likely be a victory for the EU, NATO, and by extension, the US empire. Once a disciplined communist party is capable of harnessing the revolutionary potential in Belarus and direct it towards liberation, I'll support the uprising. But I'm not going to support an uprising that will only worsen the conditions in Belarus.
anti-communist propaganda flooding in from the west certainly makes things difficult on having a communist party get a foothold. the younger generations are far easier to convince to work with imperialists.
No one should sit down. Western media tried to call it color revolution, and it didn't really take it seems. I recommend you don't read Belarusian politics through the American identity politics. The issues with LGBT rights are very real, and it is still a very orthodox country in this sense. But no one is saying here that toppling Lukashenka is a men's issue. Women fare much better in Belarus than women in Texas. As anywhere else, there is plenty of discrimination, Lukashenko said some horrendous things about his women opponents in the election. At the same time, economically speaking, abortion for instance is free in state hospitals and in a private hospital maybe $50.
A lot of people want self-determination for Belarus, I agree with that. The issue, unfortunately, is that no country exists in isolation and there are much bigger geopolitical forces that essentially interfere with Belarus' self-determination. So that's what you get in the end: Lukashenka, who has become good at playing this tight rope game of not giving away the country to either East or West, and then candidated who want to favor East or West, and then others who say they want reforms and they mean it but they seem to have privatization in mind.
More young people want the EU, in my experience. Not in terms of giving away Belarusian assets to the EU, but just being able to travel freely. Those who want Russia can actually just go to Russia, the border is open, so maybe that's why there are fewer of those people--they left.
I've been skipping western media takes for the most part. I've friends in Belarus, though I have not been able to contact them for obvious reasons.
and that EU sentiment is also how I interpreted it. having relations with both vs just russia. didn't hear much privatization sentiment from anyone. seems the sentiment is similar to lukashenko and if he wasn't such a dumbass, social reforms could have greatly helped the situation. better relations with the EU would have been far more difficult to achieve, though, as it seems the EU is pretty much unwilling until he's gone.
That's a cultural/generational issue, not one tied specifically to Lukashenko or his governing ideology - unlike with Putin, for example, who has aligned himself with the religious right in Russia. A pro-Western revolution would hardly help advance feminism or LGBT equality - maybe something minor would change just because new people would come to power, but the greater immiseration of the lower classes from neoliberalism and whatever political conflicts follow would hit women and LGBT folk the hardest.
Case in point - Ukraine. The pro-Western governments are ostensibly following the EU, which does have better human rights, but you have far-right nationalists walking around in broad daylight, openly espousing traditionalism and xenophobia. And everyone is poorer. Maybe some privileged few have more freedom, but your average person doesn't.
Of course the people that protest on those issues deserve full support. Just don't align that support with coup plotters - it's not going to change the minds of the majority that doesn't know sex can happen outside the missionary position, much less involve two members of the same sex.
leaving the gov't in control of lukashenko in the long run isn't gonna work either. privatization creep continues to occur.
it's a pretty damn complex situation. there's no real winners no matter what
Right. One of the great principles expressed by Lenin is that revolution requires good timing. If toppling the current government will just bring in a more neoliberal one and there's no hope of a socialist turn in the near future, then the time isn't ripe for direct confrontation. Build organizations, gather supporters, bide your time. Fighting now just for the sake of fighting is a waste - it's blind praxis without any theory.
we don't really know what the future holds for a new gov't considering the opposition ran on a platform of freeing political prisoners and running a new election without lukashenko. there doesn't seem to be any turning back now. it also really seems at this point that neither russia or the EU give a shit.
I was finally able to speak with my friends in Belarus this morning for the first time since Sunday before the net was cut off again. they're ready. they're desperate. unless lukashenko pulls something out of his hat, they're going until he's gone at this point.
That's sad. My family is in Ukraine. We thought good change could come from just getting the old bastards out of there and then it turned a hundred times worse. Wishing a Color Revolution on your country - no matter their bright happy slogans - is wishing for death and destruction.
This. Look at Bolivia. Look at Ukraine. The fervour of 'getting Lukanshenko out' amounts to nothing if there's no communist party to replace it. It will be worse that the status quo, and it will create turmoil in the region with Belarus as a focal point. A 'protracted war' is necessary. Or in this case 'protracted organisation'. There needs to be a building of inner-party opposition to Lukashenko in order to influence him from inside, or if not, a grassroots communist movement. But, yeah, that doesn't seem like it's gonna happen either.