Yes, a lot of people just don't know what they are asking for because they haven't experienced full horrors of neoliberalism yet. Humanity is yet to learn how to learn from others' mistakes.

I was a liberal in the way chapo understands liberals. Because Lukashenka is clearly a dictator in the way he runs the country, no matter what good things he might or might not do for the economy, this issue really looms very large in people's minds. So we fight for democracy: just being able to elect someone else freely is often the main issue. This is a very large tent that at least in principle includes almost anyone: socialists want Lukashenka to stop privatizing things, liberals want Lukashenka to stop regulating the markets so intensely (I remember in early 2000s cigarette prices used to be set by the government, and if you are a retailer, you would learn about the new prices once a month from a special trade publication; I don't think this is the case anymore), nationalists want neither West nor East and so on. There are so many parties and oppositions that for a long time the biggest problem was to have them agree in favor of fewer candidates so as not to split the vote too much. It was a minor miracle in 2005 when most of the liberal and left leaning opposition forces agreed on a single candidate, Milinkevich. That didn't work either, of course, since we are having this discussion now.

What changed for me is living very poorly in the US for a couple of years, and traveling extensively in the EU. I had to learn what insurance is. And that owning a car doesn't mean you are rich. And seeing so many homeless people and fearing of becoming one constantly. And I am not even claiming I'd live less poorly in Belarus, but there is still a social network (it is slowly eroding though). So that and just learning more about the ways of global geopolitics, taking in the big picture. Marx and other communist literature comes later to put all the pieces of the puzzle together.

More privatization. There are less and less state controlled entities (although a lot of them still have better salaries). I remember looking at the Lonely Planet guide to Belarus years ago, and they were saying something like "if you want to experience what the Soviet Union was like, don't go to Moscow, go to Minsk," and it's still true in the sense of architecture maybe. But otherwise the country has been extremely Westernized. In terms of healthcare, for example, you have two tiers now. State healthcare still exists, but if you want any "extra" you have to pay for that yourself. It's still inexpensive. This was a while ago, but I had a root canal and in Texas and they told me it would cost $2000 to fully fix it. I returned to Belarus and it was taken care for $100. You can still go to a doctor and pay nothing though. There are all kinds of restaurants, with the tip culture and all, indistinguishable from anything you would see in the West, and more tourism since they made a visit from very many countries visa free for two weeks now i think. All my friends speak English.

I'm not there so I can't tell. When I was protesting back in the days people would ask "How much are you getting paid to do this?" and there was no money in it for us, just the principles. But there were always infiltrators from all sides, that I know. But my guess is much of the pro-western sentiments are legit, even if there are infiltrators, because Belarusians legitimately want free movement. Because of all the visa stuff, we cannot just go visit the rest of Europe unless we have a work visa (very hard to get) or a tourist visa (easier but very temporary). So i get the frustration.

One of his planes flew from Minsk to Turkey a few hours ago. But he has more than one, it could have been his family. Police were minesweeping the tarmac and the surroundings yesterday (they do it every time he flies anywhere though, as far as i know). Russia doesn't like him much because he doesn't want full integration and they put economic pressure on him by withdrawing oil and gas subsidies. L. doesn't want full integration because he will become no one in that scheme of things. He plays footsie with Europe to keep Russia on the fence about his candidacy. He arrested pro-Russian candidate, too, who wasn't even on the ballot at the time the elections happened. But he did the same with the pro-Western candidate. I think for Russia he is better than whatever might happen next. That's probably why they stayed relatively quiet. I doubt he will be ousted just like that. Last time I checked the protesters dispersed pretty quickly.

I think it is possible that he would have won without the rigging and got, say 55% of the votes. But we will never know because there was rigging, as always: ballot staffing, observers not allowed in, they even removed the curtain in polling booths to make it less anonymous because there was a campaign to take a pic of your ballot and send it to a dedicated website so that the ballots can be counted independently. When you arrest two of your main opponents so that they can't participate in the election, that's rigging to and it also nothing new and happened before. Lukashenka likes what he calls "elegant victories," 80% of votes and up, and he's been having elegant victories every four years...

Older people like Lukashenka better, in part because he always makes pensions his rallying card, and no matter the economic turmoil in the country he tries to keep the pension system afloat. None of my younger friends like him or voted for him. Same with my parents. But I cannot speak for everyone.

There are absolutely. They just don't run the country, and there is still a somewhat better distribution of wealth among the general population. It's still very bad, but not 1% type of stuff.

Thanks!

I doubt it. Belarus is not in the EU and even if EU wanted Belarus there and Belarusians wanted to be in the EU, Russia would never let Belarus go and that's the scary part, how something like this might pan out.

rock and a hard place is a perfect way to put it

That's my understanding too. There are no good outcomes any which way you look at the situation. And that includes Lukashenka staying in power, because Russia is getting tired of him too.

People can be justifiably upset at the conditions in a country, while carrying out a color revolution. In fact, that is necessary. Every reactionary movement must be grounded in genuine discontent, otherwise they would not have sway with the masses. It's the case for both "pro-democracy" imperialist movements and fascist movements.

The Hong Kong protesters were right to be upset at the capitalist exploitation in Hong Kong. They were wrong to align with imperialists, who will only deepen the capitalist contradictions in their country. Same with Belarus.

Judging by the response from mainstream media & Germany, imperialist powers must have significant influence over these "pro-democracy" groups. If this movement is successful, it will likely be a victory for the EU, NATO, and by extension, the US empire. Once a disciplined communist party is capable of harnessing the revolutionary potential in Belarus and direct it towards liberation, I'll support the uprising. But I'm not going to support an uprising that will only worsen the conditions in Belarus.

No one should sit down. Western media tried to call it color revolution, and it didn't really take it seems. I recommend you don't read Belarusian politics through the American identity politics. The issues with LGBT rights are very real, and it is still a very orthodox country in this sense. But no one is saying here that toppling Lukashenka is a men's issue. Women fare much better in Belarus than women in Texas. As anywhere else, there is plenty of discrimination, Lukashenko said some horrendous things about his women opponents in the election. At the same time, economically speaking, abortion for instance is free in state hospitals and in a private hospital maybe $50.

A lot of people want self-determination for Belarus, I agree with that. The issue, unfortunately, is that no country exists in isolation and there are much bigger geopolitical forces that essentially interfere with Belarus' self-determination. So that's what you get in the end: Lukashenka, who has become good at playing this tight rope game of not giving away the country to either East or West, and then candidated who want to favor East or West, and then others who say they want reforms and they mean it but they seem to have privatization in mind.

More young people want the EU, in my experience. Not in terms of giving away Belarusian assets to the EU, but just being able to travel freely. Those who want Russia can actually just go to Russia, the border is open, so maybe that's why there are fewer of those people--they left.

women’s rights and LGBT rights are things that have needed to be addressed for so long in Belarus, but lukashenko does not budge on either

That's a cultural/generational issue, not one tied specifically to Lukashenko or his governing ideology - unlike with Putin, for example, who has aligned himself with the religious right in Russia. A pro-Western revolution would hardly help advance feminism or LGBT equality - maybe something minor would change just because new people would come to power, but the greater immiseration of the lower classes from neoliberalism and whatever political conflicts follow would hit women and LGBT folk the hardest.

Case in point - Ukraine. The pro-Western governments are ostensibly following the EU, which does have better human rights, but you have far-right nationalists walking around in broad daylight, openly espousing traditionalism and xenophobia. And everyone is poorer. Maybe some privileged few have more freedom, but your average person doesn't.

Of course the people that protest on those issues deserve full support. Just don't align that support with coup plotters - it's not going to change the minds of the majority that doesn't know sex can happen outside the missionary position, much less involve two members of the same sex.

:heart decoration:

Adam.