Anti-war protests prior to the invasion of Iraq easily dwarfed today's turnouts (impressive as they are) but that didn't stop Dubya and his client state sock puppets from Shock and Awe'ing their way through Iraq with a shit-eating grin. When "Israel's 9/11" happened, it looked like we'd see a repeat of that despite everything, especially in an era where it's more apparent than ever that the Western ruling class does not give two shits about popular will if things quiet down and everyone goes to brunch by the end.
And yet, politicians and MSM talking heads alike who were previously channeling their inner Goebbels and hyping up the audience for Palestinian blood are now timidly stepping back, talking about "humanitarian pauses" just short of a ceasefire (and sometimes slipping up). On occasion, there's actual push-back even from longtime zionists. We're seeing cold-hearted state department ghouls resigning in protest since even they understand the severity of this. Of course, talk is cheap and it's more trying to save face than anything but compared to 20 years ago it's baffling that they don't simply close their eyes and ears and pretend the protests are just dumb Saddam Hamas-loving hippies.
This is less me going 
that things will just end up the same and more being measuredly optimistic. There was a lingering thought in the back of my mind that that the work people have done to propagate, agitate and disrupt would only pay "dividends" in the long run months after Israel finally accomplishes its dreams of acquiring Lebensraum.
I have lots of ideas as to why. The greater public fatigue for forever wars, the proliferation of graphic footage through social media, the lack of the "End of History" high that was present for the War on Terror, the diminishing socio-economic prospects for people in the belly of the beast, Israel's more brazen stance since 2014 and so on. I'm just trying to digest it all.
Are they being effective?
My only guess is they're afraid Biden will lose the election if he runs as Genocide Joe.
Yeah this is important context. Dubya had a blank check to do anything he wanted (and he still overstepped his mandate and had to cheat to win the second time), whereas Biden feels pretty fragile. It's the same reason why Biden showed up to the UAW strike and has been letting his NLRB do good stuff - he feels the need to actually build a coalition, rather than feeling safe where he's at.
I mean, Dubya also blatantly cheated the first time, so not very surprising he did it twice.
If I'm to be a pessimist, I think they'll go ahead and keep the war going anyway but pretend to be sad about it to avoid backlash or keep the illusion that there are two political sides in the West instead of one big capitalist monster.
The optimist in me thinks that maybe the West has stretched itself too thin by trying to wage war in Ukraine and Palestine, fucking with the global south, surrounding China to provoke another cold war, etc all at the same time and are trying to reel it in for now. If you look at every bloodthirsty empire they always collapse the same way, their lust for domination does them in, they stretch their armies too thin and so leave themselves vulnerable.
they're only vulnerable if they're attacked though. Strongly worded letters only go so far
This is a completely vibes based analysis but here are my thoughts. First, the Iraq war was ostensibly tied to 9/11 which was fresh in people’s mind. People might make a big deal about the Israelis being attacked, but that will always different from the post-9/11 feeling people had that they themselves were under attack. Even the people resurrecting the Bush era paranoia that the terrorists are going to be invading us next, it’s not really the same since there was never any urgent threat for Americans.
Second, the USA is collapsed. The treats don’t flow anymore, not like they did in 2003, people are angry, upset, there’s something resembling an anti-war far left today, along with an isolationist far-right. There’s also no rally around the flag moment since this isn’t an American war. They’re trying to get us amped up about a foreign war, which firstly everyone is tired of and more opposed to, and a foreign war that we’re not even publicly involved in. It’s a different moment and a much harder populace to get excited.
Third, the Iraq war was brutal, but it wasn’t this. The US did some horrible things over there, but at the end of the day it was about opening up new markets, creating a US puppet state and bleeding a country dry. Everything was incidental to these goals. With Israel-Gaza, the goal really is just extermination and genocide. Despite all the propaganda, they can’t avoid that.
Fourth, the Iraq war was an extension of and the conclusion of the Gulf War, which not only was a success for the US, but itself occurred as the Soviet Union was dissolving and the US was finding itself the dominant power in a now unipolar system. As such, you have the whole UN Security Council (inc. China and the dying Soviet Union) backing the US on economic sanctions, the largest coalition since WWII opposing Iraq militarily. So in 2003, now fully in the end of history with only allies or defeated/impotent opponents on the world stage, the US at the height of its power and literally the same military action in 91 having been a huge success, that a much easier war to get behind than the endless quagmire the Iraq war became.
Fifth, Biden is a nonexistent president. Bush had that down home good old boy personality despite being a monster, Obama was an extremely skilled speaker and was good at seeming like the “cool” president, and Trump just oozes charisma, it’s literally his only skill. Biden is a decrepit old man, fucks up every time he speaks, and doesn’t even seem like he’s the president. No one’s gonna get behind that.
So tldr the population is different having lost its appetite for war, it has nothing to do with us despite the propaganda trying to convince us otherwise, and the actual goals are very different and harder to convince people to get behind. Also Biden sucks.
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The Iraq War hadn't begun yet, so there was nothing happening to really drive popular opinion. When it did, it wasn't as brutal as this. We have an obvious genocide unfolding in front of our eyes.
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There's nothing close to mainstream media hegemony today. The mainstream media is forced to chase popular opinion, which is shaped far by social media and international media (made available by the former) that accurately reflect conditions.
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Iraq War protests were huge, but they didn't actually reflect popular opinion, which was pro-war. Popular opinion today is very firmly on Palestine's side because of the points above.
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Because of the above, this poses a genuine electoral threat to Biden, who was already on shaky ground going into 2024.
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The radical left is on a general upswing in the US; though still small, it's far more organized and coherent than 20 years ago.
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The organizers who lead the Iraq War protests didn't quit after they failed. They assessed their praxis and theory, left Trotskyism, and founded
/ANSWER. Over the intervening decades, PSL has closely followed the Leninist organizing tradition while adapting to present conditions and built the capacity all over the country to organize and lead these protests alongside Palestinian comrades today. In every single city PSL organizers are the forefront of these protests and bring a single consistent, Marxist, and unapologetically anti-imperialist position across the US. -
Bush's wars were the beginning of the end for American hegemony. The US imperial apparatus and its global legitimacy have been on decline every year since, and they just don't have the wherewithal to whip the world into shape and act so unilaterally anymore.
The organizers who lead the Iraq War protests didn't quit after they failed. They assessed their praxis and theory, left Trotskyism, and founded /ANSWER
I haven't heard of this opinion before and I don't think the timeline adds up? Answer was founded before the Iraq War and was already a lead organizer of Iraq War protests by then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.N.S.W.E.R.
Sorry, I should say that the people who founded and ran ANSWER then went on to found PSL in response to the failures of organizing at the time. They left Worker's World and shifted to Marxism Leninism. The organizations are extremely closely linked and ANSWER is essentially an extension of the party now (oversimplifying a bit but essentially true). I just didn't feel like going into that much more detail in my already longest bullet point.
Popular opinion today is very firmly on Palestine's side because of the points above.
I thought US polling was generally still pro-israel?
Polling is very in favor of a ceasefire, at least a temporary end to weapons shipments, and sympathy is stronger for Palestine. In the vague question of supporting Israel, yeah, there's popular support, but the specifics around this crisis are all in Palestine's favor.
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I think if Iraqi teenagers and the independent press had access to social media showing the results of the bombardment (shock and awe is basically the same thing going on in Gaza this month) and they had access to the censored/blurred gopro footage of American Teenagers desecrating corpses, Bush might have been thrown out in 2004. It should be remembered that the Democrats gained seats in 2006 (?) due to the way the war was going but they did absolutely jack shit with it.
I think because of BLM and the George Floyd Protests it is hard for people to ignore how this bullshit is interconnected. One of the things Black Activists supporting Gaza point out is that American police departments train in Israel. Black Intellectuals call out the apartheid.
It is a different world, the United States can claim all it wants that it cares about freedom, the sacredness of life, and Democracy; but we just seen internal and external forces revolt at Biden's election; 1.6+ Million Covid deaths, and a barbarous police state. You gotta be pretty fucking brain dead to believe the mainstream media, and these ghouls don't even believe their own horse shit (maybe the truly stupid people do, but most of them know they are full of shit).
I was also reading that even the Israeli population has nothing but utter contempt for Bibi, while families of the Hostages are demanding a ceasefire and their recovery as the highest priority.
Will all of these factors matter? I don't know. I think the United States and its politicians have a way of diffusing tensions and pretending to address the demands of their most moral citizens (see Biden running on civil rights and immediately giving more money to cops). I think we'll see the "humanitarian pause" become the only allowed rallying cry in the political sphere, and they'll refuse to allow aid into the Gaza strip. I could be wrong, I certainly hope I am.
I think with the Ukraine War and NordStream and now Israel/Gaza, the US has really overplayed. The illusion of 'goodwill' that has been pretty easily maintained in the mainstream press for decades is quickly evaporating. Within the living memory of many folks, the reality has become quite undeniable if you are paying attention. Now this isn't exactly new, but I think the scale and velocity is much greater now with established social media networks that are not quite as easily curated as traditional media. This is quickly becoming another 2020 uprising event on a directly international issue, and it centers the 'west' as the maintainers of this vile status quo.
That's my
take on it at least.Is there an Obama type the Dems can roll out to quell the anger towards mainstream politicians and US empire? Bernie is too old, AOC might be the prime candidate and she has shown she is willing to serve Empire. Obama even won a Nobel prize because everyone hated Bush jr at that time.
Just to push back on the narrative about the protests 20 years ago failing: they did stop a lot of the client state sock puppets joining the war in Iraq. 2/5 of the Five Eyes didn’t go, and half of NATO stayed home.
Good point. It's likely intentional that we overfixate on the ultimate failure of preventing the invasion altogether and not on the splash we make, however small it is.
Nothing is going to change unless there is a genuine left wing movement that can channel these disparate forces of discontent into direct political action. Otherwise all the protest energy will simply be absorbed by the institutional apparatus and siphoned down the drain.
Remember not too long ago there was a highly popular “political revolution” led by Bernie Sanders? Where did all that energy go?
The utter failure of the American left during the COVID pandemic should be the wake up call that you need a left wing movement (of which there is none) to get anything done. The American left refuses the read theory, refuses to use the tools given to them by Marx, Engels and Lenin - and until they have learned to properly utilize those tools, they will continue to fail.
I feel like they won't change much in the grand scheme, but it does seem to be having somewhat of an effect on the MSM. Best case scenario is that this ends up in a Vietnam War type of scenario. Worst case is that it's like the Iraq War and continues on while labeling the protesters as being pro-Hamas and singling out Hezbollah flags and slogans that they consider problematic.
The Zionist entity is doing whatever it wants and the US government continues to supply them, including with new billions just for this special occasion.
The difference in media response is good to study, but the material response of the empire doesn't indicate any difference between now and 20 years ago.
I found YouTube links in your post. Here are links to the same videos on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Link 1:
Link 2:
