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The Dow Jones Industrial Average just saw a "death cross" that's regarded as a bearish signal.
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The formation involves a short-term moving average falling below a longer-term one.
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The last time a death cross struck was in March 2022. The Dow then fell 12% over a six-month period.
My health insurance just jumped 10% - THANKS GENOCIDE JOE! Bidenomics is really winning here! Real FDR 
Maost progressive Dem!
Then you have Turbo 
like 
David Copium-man
desperately trying to gaslight everyone 
The priests have read the entrails of the economy and have determined things to be bad. Now the vibes are off, the stock market will tank, and since it's all any public company cares about, they'll do the 'aww, shucks we really hate this for you :(' song and dance while a ton of people get shitcanned. This system fucks.
Honestly, having been very much into econ and such when I was younger, trying to determine things like 'are we going to have a recession' really is just haruspicy.
There's dozens to hundreds of things that could indicate a recession. Or they could mean nothing.
Hell, you can't even get a lot of economists to agree on what exactly defines a recession in a capitalist economy; is it just a prolonged pullback in the stock market? Is it things like unemployment and LIBOR being high? Is it when the CPI gets too high? When companies aren't breaking revenue records?
When I was working on my PhD dissertation in climate modeling foundations, I decided to dig into economic modeling a little bit. I was especially interested in the few people who had accurately predicted major recessions and/or the 2008 financial crisis, which was very recent when I was doing this research.
I found pretty much exactly the same thing that you described: there was basically no rhyme or reason to it, and the models that got things right in 2008 had been consistently wrong in other forecasts, sometimes in very similar conditions. Moreover, they all got it right for completely different reasons (i.e. were looking at totally different indicators as being "definitive"), and the predictions weren't generalizable in any meaningful sense. It really is almost completely vibes based, and the models are just vehicles for different theorists' intuitions about what matters when.
Yes. One of those people. Michael Burry, has been consistently wrong since then despite having what was a sound model for predicting that particular recession.
To give a specific example of data analysis failing, back in late 2022, the 30 day moving average for the S&P 500 exceeded the 10 day moving average; the only other times in recent decades where that has happened, it was in 2001 prior to the dotcom bubble bursting and in 2008 prior to the mortgage bubble bursting
But nothing like that has happened (yet?)
Only a menkhu can read the lines oynon. These prickly pricks will bury us all
Show
the dow jones saw its shadow so there'll be 6 months of nuclear winter
Love how this made-up bullshit dictates whether or not people can afford food
At our benefits meeting the rep was straight face telling us to ask hospitals/doctors what the cash price is before running it through insurance as the negotiated rates are shit.
She spent the whole session basically telling us not to see the doctor because they'll bill us for some bullshit diagnostics at our annual visit that won't be covered.
Reminds me of the Obamacare "death spiral" but the death spiral is just good ole capitalism
I am working on an effort post where I walk through the median American’s budget, and compare that to qualitatively to what a typical worker in the Eastern Bloc in say the early 80s would have. The early conclusion I’m coming to is that MAYBE the American gets more treats (not even sure that’s true) but life is way more precarious, with health care and housing being so easy to lose.
Health insurance is such a scam. I think in the coming years less and less will be covered and Americans will question why they are even paying premiums in the first place. Universal healthcare will become even more popular but it won’t matter since we don’t live in a democracy. Despite health care being near the top of the list of what voters care about, Democrats won’t even bring up a Public Option while universal healthcare just gets more and more popular.
The early conclusion I’m coming to is that MAYBE the American gets more treats
I totally agree with your maybe qualifier. I'm a stingy hermit but our treats suck. Yeah I can get a really nice meal for a third of my paycheck, but the real treats I want inherently threaten capitalism or aren't profitable. Human connection, walkable cities, clean and modernized public spaces, and free time are enemies of the bg because they create community, which shares a lot of letters with the bad word.
Even our media sucks because it can always start out good, but in the end the show, movie, book, game has to lib out and show how both sides or that "killing the baddies is actually bad." Any depiction of communism has to be in a situation where capitalism died of natural causes.
Really what Americans have to do is go overseas and spend their "powerful" dollar in a place that's being exploited. I don't like that feeling at all, though I guess I'd prefer my money go to people who actually deserve it. The fact that people have been traveling abroad for healthcare and saving money doing so is absurd.
Ok done ranting. Would be really interested in your post when it's ready!
Yeah it’s like, take a moment and think about all the sort of unnecessary possessions you have (I feel like calling them “treats” isn’t always the best because some unnecessary things are cool). Think about how those actually make your life better or worse. Cell phones aren’t a great comparison because they didn’t have them in the Soviet times.
For me personally, it comes down to like, my coffee maker and some other kitchen things, my e-reader, my TV, then books and board games. Other than that, I don’t really have much else. If the USSR was able to fix their shit in the 80s and continue on to 2023, do we really think my Soviet doppelgänger wouldn’t have those things too? In terms of actual quality of life… I mean I make decent money now but I don’t think I’d be less happy if I was living in the 2023 Soviet Union (ignoring the fact that I’m a commie so obviously I’d rather be there). I might have marginally less treats but I’d be way more secure in life. And I’m someone who makes above the median income in a country that benefits massively from imperialism.
I think the other unsaid "benefit" that's enjoyed is relative safety from warfare. Of course the primary export of the US is warfare. Not a very healthy relationship
I hope to have the satisfaction of seeing the day when the media's old talking point "how you gonna pay for it", just does not work anymore. The day when the any average joe on the street tells a reporter asking about how great his employer plan is to go f off. There is a certain satisfaction in seeing that happen.
Idk, maybe there is hope of seeing that happen given how one of the pillars of the media's consensus, dogmatic support for Israel, has been shown to be weak among generations that came of age post 2008. If the media does not have total control over that narrative, what else are they bluffing on.
An economy where nobody can afford anything that's built on pure speculation is about to fail again? I just can't believe it.
During an election year. Pitty if it drags Biden lower than Carter so people will then forever point to Genocide Joe as the worst presidenr ever before Carter passes.
Typical scorpio, crossing the lines and stuff
P.S. business news be writing about inscrutable line behavior
Back when I took some financial analysis classes in the early 00s, the topic of inflation came up. It’s pretty obvious but most people don’t realize inflation affects the stock market too. If the stock market is up 5%, and inflation is 7%, then the stock market actually went down 2%. I remember asking the professor why we don’t hear about “inflation-adjusted stock market returns”. He basically said don’t worry about it, it’s so low and consistent that it doesn’t really matter. At the time that made sense - inflation hadn’t been an issue in over 20 years. So nowadays, you have people who see “the stock market grew 10% last year!” and don’t realize that with high inflation, that’s not really very good. Because for most of their lives, it wasn’t something they really needed to figure out when looking at stock market returns.
It’s kinda the same with housing prices. I have seen analyses that show, as much as it feels housing prices have been going way up, when you factor in inflation home prices aren’t actually that far out of alignment. It’s just that inflation has been that bad and wages haven’t kept up. I’d be curious to see an analysis of stock market returns adjusted for inflation since COVID. I suspect it ain’t all that great.
Reading that was like a shitty RPG where they just ripped off of DnD or something and changed all the names for stats to feel special.
Damn saw one in my shitter too this morning when i took a dump, troubled times ahead surely…
Selling everything when my mutual fund hits 64 currently 63.5, put it in a money market for a while and buying back in when it's below 59.
I found a YouTube link in your post. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
