they don't have a play. there's no grand unified strategy behind american foreign policy anymore, not regarding afghanistan anyway. what's the benefit of staying anymore? the global empire is in deep trouble and the occupation is heavily unpopular domestically. the play is to refocus on other theatres where american influence is also waning (cough cough, latin america) and forget about far flung regions which have already bled so much debt and political capital from the imperialist machine.
like, what would another decade of occupation accomplish for western capital? the taliban are clearly going nowhere. the nation building project is a failure and it'll only get more unpopular. the only reason i could think of for the US to remain involved is to try and fuck with Belt and Road, but even then, it's not like afghanistan is particularly essential to it.
Correct and it actually benefits attempts to disrupt the B&R by ensuring the region is as chaotic as possible. Fund proxy groups and other religious fundamentalists and hope the conflict spills in the neighboring regions. That give US agencies tinder to spark flames in the wider region, or just let it go and let the Chinese play in the chaos.
From a US perspective the only reason to maintain a presence there is access to the massive mineral wealth, but with no way of getting it out denying it to china is just as good as having control over the region. The real nightmare scenario for the empire is the Taliban actual gaining affirmative control and making nice with China for capital investment. While there is some evidence that is where things are going, there are lots of ways Alphabet agencies can fuck with the situation.
there are lots of ways Alphabet agencies can fuck with the situation.
On the other hand, if the alphabet agencies really had substantial power to fuck with the Taliban, they would have done it by now.
Maybe maybe not. The taliban as a hostile insurgency is different from a neutral governing party. Also having a enemy occupying your homeland has a way of unifying very mutually hostile factions temporarily.
The US leaving very likely could leave it with a stronger hand on many ways. While it is fun to jeer and mock the empire for its stupidity, it did manage to climb to the top of the pile of corpses so i wouldn't underestimate it.
It borders Xinjiang, and an Afghan civil war might stir up radicalism again and force China to amp up their deradicalization programs, providing fodder for America's attempts to portray them as evil authoritarians who should be sanctioned
Yep. This is my prediction, but I also think they're going to start funding terror groups to attack China, just like they used to do with the Soviet Union.
this terror group is dedicated to the brave mujahedeen fighters in afghanistan
I think at this point the play is literally "cut our losses and run" much like Vietnam. We haven't even left entirely yet and the Taliban have made rapid advances and took over several state capitols with relative ease, which is only going to grow their strength even more. It's done, we lost and the only thing further intervention would accomplish would be prolonging the inevitable (the original invasion was also doomed to fail but no one could see that then). The US empire is looking a litte more shaky these days and with a growing rival in China, at some point we needed reduce our military commitments and recognize that the 20 year forever war has been a multi-trillion dollar sunk cost. The troops need to go occupy the south china sea now or some shit.
Especially with covid throwing the economy into danger, I think the US just wants out of the situation with as little consequences as possible. I think this whole thing about "we actually left Afghanistan strong and stable" is just going to be a way to blame the Afghans for losing while we try to claim :mission-accomplished:
it's their struggle
i love seeing americans act as if the taliban (and the whole afghan situation tbh) just materialised out of thin air lmao
this film is dedicated to the brave mujahideen fighters of Afghanistan
lol the wikipedia page tries to pretend this is an "urban legend" by citing articles about the theatrical release... but this was on the VHS tapes afaik (which they ignore)
It’s funny Biden actually seems like the dove of the Obama admin so he might genuinely just be opposed to boots on the ground, US official intervention. Of course this doesn’t mean anti-interventionism is on the docket for the US, this just means a transition towards privatized imperialism via contractors and spook shit. Ideology recuperates Biden’s own morality and blinds him to the larger image so his actions still point in the direction pre-determined by his class position. The empire chugs along but white stars are swapped out for blackwater logos
- It's an easy political win because we've so clearly lost at this point. If they strap Biden to the Golden Throne and roll him out there again for 2024, or if Harris manages to make it to the Iowa caucuses this time, expect them to pound the table hard with this one.
- The military-industrial complex will still get plenty of cash from Space Force, Syria, Yemen, and endless drone strikes and special forces operations across the globe. This will inherently be lower-profile, and will get even less press as it's increasingly privatized. Look also for more talk about "we need to re-tool the military for fighting
Iran Chinaa peer- or near-peer enemy." - Whatever imperial hesitancy exists in the U.S. government exists almost entirely in the Democratic Party, so you probably have some congresspeople and lanyard dorks who are earnestly pushing for this. Of course, most of them will be easily conned into our next imperial adventure, because we'll totally have a good reason then and it'll totally go differently.
- There's an outside chance that they think this will turn down the temperature on some of the rising leftist sentiment in the U.S.
Easier to sell guns to right-wing parties if you don't bomb them to death first. Obviously. EDIT: Also, the bombing won't actually stop, you'll just stop hearing about it.
theyre just gonna go blow up yemen and syria now and then go blow up some other place later while china frantically tries to plug all the holes
If I had to guess, China will increase its support and perhaps involvement in Afghanistan, due largely to it sharing a border with them and the current government being hostile to the United States. As a result, America may increase support for anti-government (more importantly: anti-China) forces and try to get China to have their own quagmire in Afghanistan.
china will not send troops just suits they are smart that way ... Also Chinas Israel is called Pakistan and they do have some real influence on this hole Taliban thing..
I agree that China would not likely send its military to Afghanistan, unless they are being directly attacked (which is where the anti-government forces come in).
even then, china has such an overwhelming advantage on the afghan border that its unlikely to cause anything serious
The war hawks are doing everything in their power to leverage the inevitable violence that is coming without our presence. Showing any sign of weakness or hesitation on this will be a major loss on this policy
Now any time there is a push to remove American troops from other countries, they can just point at Afghanistan and say "See what happens when we leave? Ww have to stay forever"
