The election is going to be a complete shitshow, some states delay, some hold it during the peak of a second (hard to call it second considering the first won't be done) wave of covid - thousands of geriatric voters die, plenty of younger people do too. Mail in ballots will be lost or miscounted. We won't know the results until December. Won't stop Trump and Biden from declaring victory anyway in November.
There will be some surprises, something like a lot of Dem wins in Texas (not Biden though) - like, M.J. Hegar might randomly win a Texan senate seat. This will be taken as proof positive of intervention in the election by the Trump GOP, OAN, maybe even Fox.
Overall, Trump squeaks out another electoral college win, 271 to 267. He loses the popular vote massively. His victory is owed to a combination of: Biden fucking up his debates and campaign "appearances" (even his zoom call town houses are completely fucked), voter suppression efforts by the GOP in swing states, active tampering of mail-in votes or passive tampering by just not counting "late" ballots, a mixture of unenthusiasm and covid fears suppressing turnout in general, and a sudden surprise drop in late October (like a bunch of Biden's emails are dropped discussing how to hide his rape and general impropriety or something we don't even know about).
Alternately: Trump and Biden both get covid and die, in which case Pence wins way more easily than Kamala or whoever the DNC picks to replace Biden (unless they somehow decide to win by picking Bernie or something).
I think a lot of your predictions are likely, remembering 2004. Ultimately, voting against somebody (now trump, back then GWB) actually does a lot to energize "Blue States," but doesn't drive Dem voter turnout in the Midwest and the Sunbelt (What I'll call "Felix Country" for all the bizarre jokes he makes about these collection of states.) Also, between 2008 and 2019, we the blue/red state terminology fell out of favor because, well, it wasn't very accurate. But in the age of Coronavirus and the failure of federalism, we're starting to see states defined by their Governor's party, and I see a return to the red/blue breakdown that was popular in the early 2000s.
The election is going to be a complete shitshow, some states delay, some hold it during the peak of a second (hard to call it second considering the first won't be done) wave of covid - thousands of geriatric voters die, plenty of younger people do too. Mail in ballots will be lost or miscounted. We won't know the results until December. Won't stop Trump and Biden from declaring victory anyway in November.
There will be some surprises, something like a lot of Dem wins in Texas (not Biden though) - like, M.J. Hegar might randomly win a Texan senate seat. This will be taken as proof positive of intervention in the election by the Trump GOP, OAN, maybe even Fox.
Overall, Trump squeaks out another electoral college win, 271 to 267. He loses the popular vote massively. His victory is owed to a combination of: Biden fucking up his debates and campaign "appearances" (even his zoom call town houses are completely fucked), voter suppression efforts by the GOP in swing states, active tampering of mail-in votes or passive tampering by just not counting "late" ballots, a mixture of unenthusiasm and covid fears suppressing turnout in general, and a sudden surprise drop in late October (like a bunch of Biden's emails are dropped discussing how to hide his rape and general impropriety or something we don't even know about).
Alternately: Trump and Biden both get covid and die, in which case Pence wins way more easily than Kamala or whoever the DNC picks to replace Biden (unless they somehow decide to win by picking Bernie or something).
I think a lot of your predictions are likely, remembering 2004. Ultimately, voting against somebody (now trump, back then GWB) actually does a lot to energize "Blue States," but doesn't drive Dem voter turnout in the Midwest and the Sunbelt (What I'll call "Felix Country" for all the bizarre jokes he makes about these collection of states.) Also, between 2008 and 2019, we the blue/red state terminology fell out of favor because, well, it wasn't very accurate. But in the age of Coronavirus and the failure of federalism, we're starting to see states defined by their Governor's party, and I see a return to the red/blue breakdown that was popular in the early 2000s.