I don't really think these protests had much to do with it.
lol, she definitely had a negative impact but nobody is talking about it.
yeah it coincides with the time when biden stopped hiding from his basement as much, which hurts his numbers.
I love that it’s the constant flow of Trump horrors that makes Biden’s numbers go up while he’s hibernating but as soon as he’s wheeled out to speak everyone remembers that he’s the other option and his numbers go back down
Because I think everyone knows it. Picking "Top Kop" in the age of "#ACAB?" That's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it works out for the DNC.
I think it's less that and more the fact that she's a sucking charisma void.
Did it though? Theres no way someone who would stop supporting Biden for picking Kamala, would also have been someone who would support Biden in the first place.
Not according to any of the polling, but I feel like you guys really want it to be true. He's gone down one point this week, where polls were taken during an RNC post convention bounce. He's been fairly stable above Trump at least +5 since last goddamn year.
i think unless there obvious tampering biden will win, but nothing he's done recently (dnc, kamala pick, recent statements and appearences) will help him have a blowout win of 10 points.
help him have a blowout win of 10 points.
Oh god fuck no, of course not. But neither will anything Trump does is going to help him either, it's basically gonna be a small but substantial margin.
imo, popular vote margin will be between 3 and 4%, but some states will be closer than we think, and dems might lose minessota.
but it also could be a blowout because libs reaaaaaaaaaaaaly hate trump.
Can I tell you my 2016 theory?
Keith Ellison's electoral transformation of his district was incredible, and he had more returns per person in his district than anyone else in the state of Minnesota. Hist turnouts are an absolute blowout. The only state Hillary won in her firewall in 2016 was Minnesota, by only 40,000 votes. She owes every single fucking one of them to Keith Ellison.
I don't think we're going to lose the 5th anytime soon.
do you think the state is in danger of going red?
ellison carrying clinton's win is.... very accurate but also depressing.
Personally I don't, the whole idea of the Rust Belt going Republican is laughable to me. It's still very urban and what happened more than anything is that people didn't give a fuck about Hillary in 2016.
People hate Trump but probably not in the right states. I'm betting if Trump wins, it'll be because of the electoral college.
I have a hard time seeing trump winning the popular vote unless there’s mass election tampering
I mean polls still matter, the enthusiasm you're missing here is that more people hate Trump than like him.
Bush's approval rating was 8 points higher than Trump's at this same time.. He ran on that 9/11 high and never stopped. Kerry was a bad choice, but the Dems had a rough go of it.
I'm not saying Biden is a good choice. I'm just saying, 2004 is a bad comparison. As of September, he polled badly.
It'd be weird if the protests that have been more or less going on for months are only just now starting to hurt him in the polls. But what do I know.
The protests do have a negative impact because
- It causes conservatives to double down ideologically and raise the temperature of urgency. They feel more obligated to mobilize in November.
- Biden won off an exceptional primary surge of elderly suburbanites. Urban protests makes those people nervous and instills doubt in them, making them gravitate toward more decisive "law and order" proclamations that are more identified with conservatives.
But the electoral prospects of a conservative Democrat shouldn't matter to us whatsoever.
Trump was gonna pick up steam going into November regardless. Americans have a short attention span and are not taking the pandemic thing seriously anymore. The media has whipped everyone into a frenzy over the protests and “riots” so Trump can brand himself as the law and order candidate. It’s 1968 all over again.
It's been a steady continuous decline every time he's opened his mouth. First there was the breakfast club interview which was an amazing trainwreck, and then every time after that it's been one shitty interview after another. What are you, some kind of a junkie? C'mon man!
Turns out a candidate whose campaign imploded before Iowa might not be too popular.
Someone actually thinks picking Kamala as VP did anything to his polling, positive or negative?
No one changed their mind off of Kamala Harris.
Bidens polling is only worse now because of the convention. He's been steady, it's that there were a lot of people being polled who were saying undecided rather than saying Trump before.
I don't think either the polling or Kamala has had an impact. This election will be decided by turnout in the last few days.
Yeah. But I'm kinda struggling to think of anyone he could have picked that wouldn't have tanked him.
