Links and Stuff
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Yesterday's discussion post.
What is the likelihood that this plan will succeed? How long will it take to train Ukrainian troops to use these missiles? How easy will it be for Russia to locate and destroy these missiles before they are fired? Do Russian ships have adequate anti-air defenses?
Should Russia be afraid of this or is it just more cope?
russia's fleet could easily get blown up but it probably wouldn't matter too much in terms of unblocking the ports because russia can bomb the shit out of any ports the ukrainians have (and also any shipping, as they've shown already)
Russia can sink ships from land too, so yeah as a de-blockade strategy this makes no sense
i mean sinking russian ships is still a big boon to morale and so on.
that it is
The Ukrainians basically only have Odessa and Nikolaev as a port currently. If they blow up all the fleet, expect a massive land offensive to capture Odessa and landlock Ukraine
Considering they managed to lose bigboy ship a month ago to a couple of rockets and a drone - somewhat concerned I guess.
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We were trying to figure out the fighting over Snake Island and the best guess we could come up for as to why there was fighting over a rock in the black sea was that it was about 170km from Sevastopol, which puts Sevastopol in range of anti-shipping missiles deployed from Snake Island.
Anti-shipping missiles have long been predicted to spell the end of surface fleets as a weapon of war. And as far as I know the Harpoon missile family does work. So I think it's a credible threat if they can install launchers reasonably close to the sea.
1- The problem for Ukraine is that all of these plans are almost a once in a lifetime deal. The Moskva sunk more due to incompetence and complacency rather than Ukraine genius imo. The Russian navy simply wasn't taking the threat seriously.
But the situation changed now and the surprise factor is no longer there.
2-If you are relying on the surprise factor why do you go out boasting on social media about your grandiose plans? They underestimate Russian intelligence and basic common sense.
3- To "destroy the fleet" would require a coordinated attack on multiple vessels. I doubt they'll have the capability to do that like ever.
4- Now that they boasted about their shit plan Russian intelligence will be paying closer attention to Ukrainian missile deployments along the coast and likely preemptively destroy them making the whole thing even more unlikely. Russian continues to launch missile strikes every day and the only thing they've accomplish is to give Russia more targets to watch.