We know that Mitch McConnell floated the idea of a nationwide abortion ban shortly after the leak happened.
We know that with Roe v Wade about to be gone, the Republicans will move forward with implementing a nationwide abortion ban the next time they have enough power consolidated to do it (i.e. a trifecta, where they control the House, Senate, and Presidency).
We know that Republicans are very well positioned in the 2022 midterms, and currently the projections are that they will regain both the House and Senate.
We know that Republicans are opposed to democracy and have no problem with disregarding election results that don't favor them. Assuming that they control the Senate and House in 2024, we can count on them doing this with any 2024 presidential election result that shows a Democratic victory.
So here's the most likely (basically guaranteed in my opinion) timeline we're looking at: the GOP takes the House and Senate in 2022, they steal the presidency in 2024 (assuming they don't just win outright), and then they ban abortion nationwide in 2025 or 2026.
Am I missing anything? Is there any compelling reason to believe that this won't happen?
I think if this happened blue states would just ignore the ban, sort of like marijuana prohibition
No reason it couldn’t happen though
I think that abortion is a more salient issue than marijuana, such that a Republican-controlled federal government wouldn't let blue states just go their own way about it. Abortion is important enough that Republicans would send in federal agents to blue states to enforce a ban.
Maybe. I think that would break the country apart.
Not that it isn’t already breaking apart but that would be a speed run
Actually, now that I think about it more, they wouldn't have to send in federal agents. They could just deny Medicare reimbursement to any hospital in a blue state that continues to provide abortion in spite of the ban.
That would kill millions of elderly people if they tried it, which would also crack the country apart. It would also start an enormous fight between Republicans and pharmaceutical companies who make a ton of money off Medicare. Nationally, Medicare is around a $40 billion per year business and that's a whole lot of money to threaten. That's assuming republicans would actually have enough guts to do it and states that continued providing abortion wouldn't simply fold instantly.
I could see states like Washington, California, and New York going up in months long riots if they had abortion restrictions like in the south, much less a federal ban.
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Medicare is a block grant to the states, so they would have to cut funding to the whole state, which as mentioned elsewhere, would kill millions
And then the blue states stop sending tax revenue to DC.
And then we have another civil war about it
With the feds at war with the rest of the world we could have a repeat of 1917
when do we start playing minecraft with republicans?
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The federal government could at any time choose to enforce federal marijuana law and go into legal states and shut shit down, there's just been a precedent to not do that, but they've openly considered breaking it. Jeff Sessions as AG under Trump said he wanted to. When the right thinks abortion should be treated as literal murder, I think they'd be more than willing to enforce their new federal ban on the states. States rights are a complete smokescreen anyway, and always have been; they argue for them when it serves their goals and ignore them when it doesn't.
It would be nice if a state would just say "fuck you, no" and set up the national guard (and refuse federalization) to protect people and clinics. That could be the proper beginning of America's collapse, or cause the federal government to get more cautious to avoid said collapse, which means not enforcing the ban in those states.
Too bad the libs in pro-abortion states are too spineless to do anything like that.