The Russian commander of the “Vostok” Battalion fighting in southern Ukraine said on Thursday that Ukraine will not be defeated and suggested that Russia freeze the war along current frontlines.
Alexander Khodakovsky made the candid concession yesterday on his Telegram channel after Russian forces, including his own troops, were devastatingly defeated by Ukrainian marines earlier this week at Urozhaine in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk regional border area.
“Can we bring down Ukraine militarily? Now and in the near future, no,” Khodakovsky, a former official of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said yesterday.
“When I talk to myself about our destiny in this war, I mean that we will not crawl forward, like the [Ukrainians], turning everything into [destroyed] Bakhmuts in our path. And, I do not foresee the easy occupation of cities,” he said.
It is a proxy war against America. You don't win those. You just set yourself up a good position and dig in. America gets bored and leaves and then you can pick over what is left of what was destroyed. So you don't win, you just wait for America to forfeit.
It's not just the US though. The European powers are far more firmly committed. It's not at all clear that the rest of NATO will simply walk away if/when the US does. Especially the former Soviet nations; this is not a fucking game to them. The loss of US support would be huge, but I don't see a universe in which the Europeans just roll over for Putin once the US loses interest.
So firmly committed that america had to blow up one of germany's pipelines? Are you having a fucking laugh?
Everyone I speak to, you know, normal people, thinks this is a fucking stupid distraction from domestic politics and the consistently declining standard of living we are seeing. America has ended european prosperity with this shit and it won't recover for 50 years. You think people here haven't noticed that?
USA invaded Ukraine? That's news to me
The US assisted in the 2014 fascist coup that led to the fascist transitionary government, the deployment of all the fascist militias to attacking the donbas, and the 8 year long civil war that led to Russia eventually invading.
Your mindset on this shit is that it began in 2022 which is false, the US has been stoking it since 8 years earlier. If you want we could go even further back though, Operation Aerodynamic was the US operation to fund, arm and support fascists in Ukraine in order to destabilise the soviet union. Absolutely none of this would be happening today without the US' historic support of fascists.
way more than that
america knew what they were doing in late 2000s when they started the ukraine into nato bullshit; a lot of important people, including some ghouls, said russia would see it as an existential threat. i mean, fuck, angela merkel was saying that back then
That's the same Angela Merkel that admitted the Minsk agreements weren't done in good faith, rather, they were just done to create time to build the Ukranian military.
From a far enough perspective this conflict goes back to like Napoleon. When was the first time a European power decided that they could definitely take control of Russia before winter?
Napoleon at first wanted to divide Europe with Russia, he did also think attacking it is bad idea. Several diplomatic fuckups and certain serial traitor* activity later it came to blows.
*Talleyrand. Biographers place quite a big role in sabotaging France and Russia agreement on him. It seems correct looking as how the European politics 200 years later are still largely based on the ones he took very active part in establishing. Also his life was wild, he served all French governments from Louis XVI to Charles X and betrayed every single one of them except Jacobins who didn't trusted him and kicked him out of France.
Good to know. Thank you for the information.
So USA took Crimea not Russia because their puppet president was overthrown in 2014?
Crimean independence goes as far back as the 1991 Soviet collapse. Acting like it is only a 2014 thing is also nonsense.
On Jan. 20, 1991, voters were asked whether they wanted the re-establishment of the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. 94.3 percent or 1,343,825 of the 1,441,019 voters who cast ballots voted yes. (81.5% turnout)
In 1994 voters were asked whether they were in favour of greater autonomy within Ukraine, whether residents should have dual Russian and Ukrainian citizenship, and whether presidential decrees should have the status of laws. All three proposals were approved. The worst of them being 77% saying Yes.
In 2014 they conducted a referendum asked voters whether they wanted to rejoin Russia as a federal subject, or if they wanted to restore the 1992 Crimean constitution and Crimea's status as a part of Ukraine. It had 89% voter turnout and 97% said yes.
If liberals care so much about democracy, and what people actually want, liberals should also care about the fact it is clearly something Crimeans wanted. The "taking of Crimea" was a referendum vote, and very little else. The way liberals always talk of it as an invasion is incorrect, in particular because Russia already ran the port, and already ran the military checkpoints into and out of the region. They were already there.
No it was... you know... the thing
People like Merkel didn't exactly think about long-term prosperity, given their climate policies. Energy shocks would've been, I assume, much stronger if they only started to happen in the 30s. The economic consequences (energy inflation, supply chain crisis) were not considered, although people have warned. Some acted (I think fennoscandic countries implemented effective heating regimes in the early 10s already for example), but many didn't learn from the 1970s energy shock caused by energy dependency on incompatible political systems and Russia's disorganisation of representation in the 2000s. Sanctions/disentanglement would've been necessary in the 2000s when Russia became centered around Putin.
SOL is high enough to defend against fascism. Don't fall for the propaganda of imperialists.
This war is so bad already, but it could be much worse (even with MAD).
This is nonsense from an american perpsective.
The reality here is that america is not a friend of europe. Those european leaders were pursuing what was best for europe, and america saw that as moving away from it.
Thus america set out to destabilise europe with exactly the same mindset it used in the middle east, and it has succeeded. As a result of blowing up pipelines and starting wars it has forced europe into vassalisation by way of creating energy dependence on it instead of itself or anyone else.
You act like what's best for america is best for europeans because you think everyone in the world is your vassal to be directed. You need to piss off and focus on yourselves and stop intefering with everyone else in the world. Everywhere the US pokes its nose into ends up worse off than it did before.
And the EU even recognises this, it understands it has been vassalised now and is working on resolving it.
They've completely fucked us over. And if you speak to anyone on the street here, taxi drivers, etc, you'd hear the same thing over and over again, Americans aren't viewed as our friends anymore, they did this shit to us and a lot of people know it.
I don't know why people keep thinking America is anything other than a paritcularly traitorous viper after the way we've treated literally every ally ever for centuries. Like at some point someone must have noticed a pattern.
Imperialist guilt is not going to solve the anti-imperialist struggles.
At this point it's like the fable of frog and scorpion (frogs should know that scorpion can remain submerged up to 48 hours).
Open circulatory system gang stay wining.
I think that's mostly ideological. War is something that exists within the Liberal world view, but obstacles to unlimited growth of profits don't. They can reckon with geopolitical conflicts but global warming does the same thing to them that trying to unlock your dad's memories does if you're a bene gesserit.
Climate change isn't mitigated just by disorienting from economic growth since status quo is so bad already. Growth politics are insufficient - not building another refinery isn't enough to combat the fossil north. Many economies, including Germany's vehicle industry, need to be completely restructured and there it is just remotely interesting for climate change mitigation whether there's differential (non-fossil) growth.
I have to imagine direct intervention would've happened already if it was going to. Why let the Ukrainians get shoved into a meat grinder first? If you're America: it's good business and sells more guns. If you're actually reliant on the buffer zone then it's really not a game, as you say.
if all the US / EU weapon stockpiles get wiped out then the US makes a mint resupplying everyone for the next war, which will be with China using Taiwan as the proxy
The US being unreliable is what will cause a full on EU army. Putin is on the EU's doorstep and former Soviet are in the EU. The EU can't ignore Putin's aggression.
I wish them all the best. Watching Europe absolutely eat shit and collapse trying to fight would be hilarious.
Notably - America will 100% hang them out to dry rather than committing significant forces.
Also, you know, the really painfully obvious thing - The only people who want Russia to attack Europe are the Baltics and some of the more unhinged right wing factions in Poland.
The EU basically have to do it if the US is going off into isolationism. Russia is a far away problem to the US, but not the EU.
If the first iteration of an EU army wasn't great, in anything serious, the UK's army would join forces with it.
Russia has shown itself willing to invade, but also not a fearsome force. So if it tries another former Soviet block country, it will be made to fail. With or without the US.
Imagine liking a queerphobic dictatorship.
Putin can hang from a barbed wire noose and also this is a US proxy war
Wait a minute.. Who invaded Ukraine in 2014, and again in 2021? Who illegally annexed sovereign territory? America is not blameless, but in this war they are just the arms dealer
The USA has been training Ukraine military and irregulars for years. They organized a volunteer force to go fight there. They sent their politicians to support the right-wing coup. What the fuck are you talking about they are just arms dealers? They are providing recon and military intelligence, they are mobilizing their satellites and aerial assets, they are doing political work to get other nations to provide support and they are putting constraints on peace deals. They are not a fucking arms dealer.
The US also sent a large number of politicians to spend 4th of July (their biggest nationalist holiday) in Russia.
Was there a coup immediately after their visit?
if you are right and they are just an arms dealer they are still the bad guys. You understand arm's dealers are bad people right?
No. That's a reductionist take.
"Can we have some weapons to defend ourselves?"
"No! That'd make us evil. You should just die. "
Oh a hexbear. ... You lot only have overly simplistic takes.
When we respond to blatant ignorance with carefully chosen wording, backing up our position with citations and links, and calmly explaining the nuance of complex geopolitical realities, we get accused of "always throwing walls of text at people." When we answer that same ignorance with short and pithy responses, we "only have simplistic takes."
There's no winning with you simple-minded dronies, but I guess there never is when one side can just make shit up that fits their vibes-based outlook on the world.
Which part was carefully chosen wording, and where are your citations?
What are you even asking for? What do you want citations on? As I made very clear with quoted text, I was responding to a claim about everyone on the hexbear instance.
Do you want citations and careful wording that hexbear people use citations and careful wording? Or do you want citations and careful wording about something specific having to do with the topic of the OP? In either case, just read the comments from hexbear users all over this thread.
You're claiming that you argue from a valid point of citing your arguments, and presented zero citation. The person the replied to needed no citations for their argument because they presented ideas, not facts. You're raging trying to tell people to cite things but you're sitting in your tower without presenting citations. You're a ragebait clown 🤡
You said:
It's unclear whether you're deliberately misinterpreting InappropriateEmote or whether you simply don't understand them. Either way, it seems sensible to quote the text that you're replying to:
This means that when Hexbear users present a longer argument with references, they get accused of writing walls of text. In response to this criticism, there is another approach: short and pithy responses.
InappropriateEmote is unambiguously saying that in this example they went with option 2, a short and pithy response. They are not claiming to have provided a longer argument with references.
This was said in response to a quip intended to shut down the discussion rather than deal with a critique:
The alternative (dealing with the substance of the claim) would have required accepting all the other evidence that the US is both arms dealer and directly involved in running the Ukraine war and directing where it's dealt arms go. Again as with yours, there was an attempt to decontextualize what a Hexbear user said so as to dismiss the overall argument without addressing it's crucial features.
It is entirely unclear what point you're trying to make by distinguishing ideas from facts. Unless it's a weird brag about being grounded in unfounded opinion rather than fact, which, if it is, is not the argument you think it is.
🤡
Damn, that's a powerful argument.
At least we know now. It doesn't have to be this way. We will be here to explain how the world works whenever you're ready to learn.
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No one ever said we are always right, and we can't be, because our internal struggle sessions are well know. We weren't even able to federate for 3 years due to incompatible code, and in that time, disagreed (to put it lightly) on things all the time in ways where both sides can't be right. I realize it can be convenient for you to talk about people you're trying to disparage as a monolith, but I assure you, no hexbear thinks hexbears are always right.
But when it comes to actually knowing shit about geopolitics, and understanding realities beyond the narrative that has been crafted to justify the ruling class' dominance and hegemony, it's hard to get it wrong when you're talking to propagandized liberals who eat up that narrative like good little unquestioning beneficiaries of empire. That much is true.
Yes, rip bozos
My eternal grief for the hundreds of thousands of innocent Ukrainians pressed into the meatgrinder by their Nazi overlords, eternal death to the genocidal Kiev regime and their campaign of extermination against their own country's citizens of Russian descent for eight years
CW: literally, unfathomably vile
The Ukrainian fascist soldiers are offering you cans of 'Separatist Baby Meat'!
You realize the people in those photos are Russian citizens and connected to Wagner PMC, right? Identify each of them for us and prove you know what the hell you're posting. Anyone can post a picture of a Nazi flag and say "See? SEE!??"
Yeah, those damn Ruskies sure love carrying around banner portraits of Stepan Bandera and flying blue and yellow flags next to their swastikas and black suns and wolfsangels.
All of these are Russian's too, right? Especially the ones that say Azov Battalion? https://leftypol.org/edu/src/1662026001627.webm
The people flying the Ukrainian flag are actually Russian?
I'm sure no Russian would ever got a Ukrainian flash for propaganda. /s
Ukraine good, Russia bad. It follows that these Ukrainians doing bad stuff are in fact Russians.
It's a non-falsifiable orthodoxy that turns evidence on its head until it fits the pre-conceived narrative.
Do you enjoy carrying water for literal fascists?
Reposting the same link as in my other comment, just because it so perfectly demonstrates how stupid and/or disingenuous it is to think that the near infinite written and photographic examples of Ukraine's love of nazi iconography is actually a Russian false flag attempt:
https://leftypol.org/edu/src/1662026001627.webm
Yes. They are Wagner
Prove it.
Uh yea gonna need you to identify these Russian citizens in those pro bandera, ukraine flag waving marches here.
Uh yeah gonna need the person claiming the photos are legit to post some proof. Burden of proof is on the presenter. That was my comment that you replied to. Since you can't, we can assume you are arguing in bad faith and have nothing to contribute
Bruv Idk what to tell you ukraine has a known problem with its far right elements, and here are pictures presented of exactly that.
YOU claimed these pictures were Wagner pmcs dressing up and holding fake far right marches with Ukrainian iconography. YOU back that claim up.
And the person posting them produced no sources.
Tell you what: I'll post a picture of Martha Stewart and Snoop (there are lots of these photos on the interwebs) and then I'll start telling everyone Martha is Snoop's secret lover. I've presented a narrative that cannot be proven and is not the real story, BUT THERE ARE PICTURES! You see, without some sort of context and verification, any picture can be used to present a false narrative.
Okay well
Ukraines problems with the far right HAVE been proven tho
www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-far-right-menace-radical-militants-ultranationalists/amp/
Interesting last part of linked article:
Guess what you're doing?
Next link is an article by The Guardian. It includes a collection of pictures, too. Are you going to tell them to identify every single person in those pictures, too?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/11/ultranationalism-in-ukraine-a-photo-essay
Another one by The Guardian:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis
Next article is by Reuters. The article opens with said paragraphe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUKKBN1GV2TY
Please note I've used exclusively western sources of which I suspect you'd refer to too. There are more, but I'm doubting your intellectual honest and curiosity, as these links were just one Google Search away.
And before you call me a putler bot or anything, as your types often do, fuck putin, the war is horrible and the fact he started it is unforgivable. Russia is a neoliberal state that in no way aligns with my own ideology. This doesn't mean I have to all of a sudden voice support for the Ukrainian state or nato for that matter, considering the many crimes of said state and military pact. It's a war between neoliberal, highly corrupt states in which the Russian and ukrainian working class stand nothing to gain.
What I'd wish to see (apart from revolutionary defeatism on both sides and a socialist takover of both states) is an end to the killing, the full return of Russia to the 2021 borders, independence for loehansk and donetsk, a neutral ukraine as a buffer between nato and Russia. But nothing points to Russia willing to give up gained ground, or to Ukraine being able to break through the russian defences. Looking at a map showing the gains after two months of counteroffensive makes this clear, it's something I feel we can't deny. To think ukraine is going to reach the sea of azov or crimea is nothing but hopeful idealism at best.
So, assuming you too want and end to the killing, and view the saving of human lives as more important than regaining the regions currently occupied, we'd have to think about the fastest way to do that. Is it to keep sending shipments of weapons and ammo to Ukraine? Well, NATO has been doing that for a year and a half now, not exactly to great effect. Note that in that time, hundreds of thousands of people were killed or injured. We can scream that putin should just retreat back to the border, but we both know that's just not going to happen, no matter how many conscripts are sent into Russian minefields and artillery kill zones.
Well.. Then what remain? In my mind, it's negotiations. Ukraine will be presented with terms they deem unacceptable, but if they don't want to run out of Ukrainians, they'll have to accept. I suspect they'll have to wave goodye to the donbas region, but I also believe the citizens of said region would rather be either independent or integrated as Russian territory.
What would you like to happen, and how do you see that happening? Oh and if you ever get around to identifying the Russians in those pictures, hmu.
Needs more jpeg
If I were to understand history based entirely on two or three headlines in The Atlantic
After whose coup d'etat?
Ahhh let's talk about those! The one in Russia last month was pretty cool. Sending Wagner to Belarus to mess with Poland, only for Poland to send 10,000 troops and see Wagner get shipped out of Belarus was pretty funny. Russia keeps trying the same playbook, and now it's being met with equal force, so they're pissed. Same reason the EU border states just expelled thousands of Russian citizens.
They keep trying to stage coups using Russian citizens. The coup in Ukraine in 2014 was preceded by a border buildup of "special operation forces." It also noteworthy how Russia has changed the lingo and now calls it "War in Ukraine."
Is it fun living in this fantasy world?
Mate, ease up on the drugs. The real world is still going to be waiting for you when you come down.
What are you talking about? I said I don't like America. How did you get it backwards?
America is a plutocracy which accepts queerness in its federal law. Your gotcha went too broad.
Bwahahaha
Oh wait you're serious
Bwahahahahahahahahaha
Mate. Respect for Marriage Act 2022 is a federal law protecting same sex marriages. It's there. It's fact. Bwaha etc.
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That's not the point. I feel I've already answered your argument in other comments. If you don't agree, please let me know why and I'll happily address it.
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Ok. I did ask you to explain why?
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I mean that's just completely false. The Act requires the U.S. federal government and all U.S. states and territories to recognize the validity of same-sex marriages.
From the Act:
Seems pretty clear, no?
Again I'm not trying to say this is a fait accompli and we can just sit back on our laurels and consider it done. But it's a hell of a lot better than Russia's law.
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There has been nothing wrong with my arguments. Acting like there has just doesn't make it so.
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Someone else is going to have to explain the ignorance present in this statement for I do not have the time or energy, could one of our cishet hexbears be a good ally?
You are incapable. That is because the comment is factually correct. US Federal law has protections for queerness. The cited law proves it. What point are you trying to make exactly?
The long and short of it is that legalizing gay marriage isn't even a strong step to lgbt liberation, it is literally just tepid assimilationism. We are only "accepted by federal law" in most narrow and on their terms sense. Call me when the US government federally covers trans Healthcare, makes conversion torture a federal crime, deals with the queer(especially child) homelessness problem, and purges the people calling us all pedophiles.
Also, learn some fucking humility.
But that's not what was under discussion. Does there exist a federal law which protects queerness?
Yes, yes there does.
Is it perfect? By no means, there's a long way to go. But the characterization of the US as queerphobic in the context of comparison to Russia is a nonsense. Both-sidesing this issue is a disgusting affront to the LGBTQ people suffering under Putin.
You're original wording was:
You do not know what queerness is if you think that is met by gay marriage being legalized federally.
This is whataboutism. Also US capitalists fund the passage of anti-lgbt laws and hate campaigns globally that create basically pogroms against gay and trans people. So it is ridiculous because the US is much worse to gay and trans people globally.
They also helped illegally and undemocratically dissolve the USSR and created the situation for Putin to exist in in the first place. Who knows, if they didn't interfere maybe the USSR would currently be as progressive as Cuba is on the issue of queer liberation. And Ukrainian and NATO capitalists and Russian capitalists wouldn't be sending conscripts to their deaths.
Legalising same sex marriage is an acceptance of queerness. At no point did I say that the issue was "met" (i.e. settled). In fact, I clearly said "it's not perfect".
Its not whataboutism though. It's a response to the original (flippant) claim that the US is a queerphobic dictatorship.
I have not seen any pogroms against gay or trans people that have been funded or supported by the US government. Maybe going back a ways?
I fucking hate the US government. Just need to mention that. They're a joke and I want to see huge reforms, though I don't hold out much hope.
I hate the Russian government more, and with good reason, especially on the issue of queerphobia. Are you genuinely of the belief that the Russian government is less queerphobic than the US govt? If so, please explain that to me in big letters so that I can understand properly.
Its not going to get less ridiculous if you keep saying it.
Are you even lgbt? Maybe you should ask some trans leftists what they think of this. Maybe read some Leslie Feinberg.
It is lmao. It is literally a dictatorship of capital with the most queer people imprisoned per population.
Look at every single liberation movements that they mass murdered and you will find countless queer folks. Queer folks have always lead the charge against US imperialism in such movements.
But also, I'm talking about US capitalists lobbying governments and running private campaigns. And the capitalists and the government are in the same bed together.
Yes, they are more queerphobic, because they kill more queer people globally, and seek to destroy liberation movements globally. Russia might have worse laws but the US has more queer blood on its hands, and is ultimately responsible for a right wing Russian government existing in the first place.
Nor will it get any less true until you refute it.
Fuck off. I don't know you.
The US is a plutocracy. You need to have a look at the definitions. It's definitely not a dictatorship because there is a regular handover of power. Is it any better than a dictatorship? Up for discussion. But the definitions of words have to matter, and you've got the wrong one.
So no examples of US government-led/supported pogroms against queer people then? Not even a single link to a pogrom which was supported by someone who was supported by an American capitalist who is demonstrably in bed with the American government? That's looking like a pretty weak line of argument at the minute, though I'm open to hearing more.
Your last paragraph is similarly hugely lacking in supporting evidence. It may be true, but at the moment I have to dismiss it utterly since it's just your opinion, and, again, I don't know you.
Most of what youre saying isn't worth responding to; for example, claiming that the rich aren't in bed with our politicians lol, but for the audience, some history:
Here the Yankees are admitting to influencing the elections after the coup to keep the communists out of power because the people had previously voted not to dissolve the USSR before the coup and they were afraid of communists regaining control of the government.
Here is a fun article on how the US is responsible for violence targetting lgbt people worldwide Just a tiny sample though
Here is a relevant essay on liberals like you speaking over queer liberation activists.
Except I never made that claim. Is English not your first language? Your comprehension seems a bit below par and I don't want to bully you out of the conversation if that's the case. I could be less idiomatic if that would help?
Stop being a debate pervert.
Is it against some rule of yours to ask for evidence?
You've been provided what you've asked for now shut up and read it loser
I'm sorry, the claims are not supported by the provided links.
While I disagree, I can see where you're coming from. Shouldn't have called you that. Gonna do some introspection, since this entire federation thing and the influx of bad faith actors I didn't encounter for three years, interaction with other users has made me pretty hostile. Sorry about that.
No worries
Did you click on the links and read them?
Yep. They don't prove the US is a queerphobic dictatorship. Not even close. I don't know what more to say. Maybe you should open your mind a bit? There is some pretty good literature out there on the nature and inherent value of truth that might be illuminating for you.
And one last thing. I'm not a liberal. Not everyone who you argue with is.
I'm curious now, if you're not a liberal what are you?
What do you want to know? Do you want me to label myself? PolComp score? What?
? You said you weren't a liberal, suggesting that you think you're something else. Which raises the question, what is that?
I'm not a liberal because I hold strong anti-capitalist views, for one example.
Okay you say you're not a liberal and you're an anti-capitalist but what are you, in the positive? Unless you only define yourself by what you're not?
I'm not into identity politics either. I am far left, anti authority, pro-worker, pro-human, pro-science. Lots of things. What about you?
I'm a Marxist. I reject identity politics, too. You should look into Marxism. It could be right up your street.
Nice! I've read the manifesto, most of Das Kapital and some of his essays and his thinking is a big part of my worldview. I'm reading "at the café" by Malatesta at the moment and I think I like it enough to recommend.
Thats because you did not ask for links proving that, youre either being a debate pervert or have the memory of a goldfish.
Or, I'm considering your argument which is supported by your evidence that some US citizens aided homophobia in other parts of the world. What was that again?
Debate pervert, got it.
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The Act nonetheless exists, and as such, proves my point quite handily.
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If the act protected queer people, then I would defend Saudi Arabia against comparisons with countries that actively litigate against the existence of queer people, like Russia, yes.
But I would not consider it proof that Saudi was accepting of queer people. For that I would probably look at testimonies of queer people in the country. Like the ones you can see from millions of US citizens.
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That seems like something which would be infinitely harder to do with Saudi subjects. Probably because they aren't allowed to be gay.
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Glad to have surprised you. And yet, if you actually parse what I'm saying, you'll see that the evidence in providing is a presumed lack of testimony being evidence of a lack of acceptance which indicates a comparison which is favourable to my argument.
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Me, losing every chess game I ever play, but at least my mind is pure because I don't think like those dirty white pieces.
Imagine having the reading comprehension of a sixth grader.
Imagine thinking Ukraine is any less queerphobic than Russia.
Russia does not have the resources for that. A reminder this isn't a proxy war for them, even though it is for the West. Russia is there in person conventionally and is somehow losing to a minor Western ally.
The Ukrainians aren't going to run out of stuff within the next year for sure, and maybe not ever because even if the US gets bored Europe is highly invested. Russia has negligible productive capacity of it's own, and is bound to have serious problems eventually, unless they convince China to help and China has so far been uninterested. They could theoretically win by population attrition, I guess, but nobody's really talking about that yet. And, to do anything, they need political stability, after already having one mostly-failed coup.
How are you defining "losing" here? They're occupying the separatist parts of Ukraine and can do so indefinitely.
Their original objective was to topple the government in Kiev, and they've gotten fairly continuously further from that. Saying they're winning has "Mission Accomplished!" energy at this point.
They're occupying Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea if that's what you mean, although it's in question if they can do that or anything else including exist indefinitely.
According to who? If you read the article from U.S. military analysts posted elsewhere in this thread, not even they think that was the point of the early war thrust towards Kiev.
Interesting you mention "Mission Accomplished" -- would you say the U.S. and its media did a good job of accurately informing the public about the War on Terror? Would you say they had good intentions?
What did they decide the Kiev thing was about? Was it a botched attempt at a decapitation strike to prevent basically everything else that happened?
It's very much worth a read. The broad strokes are:
The Kiev attack's goal appears to have been "disrupt, divert, and if you see opportunities, take them." I bet if the Ukrainian government had shown signs of folding or if the defense of Kiev had been weaker they would have pushed for more, but that didn't happen, the separatist regions were taken successfully, and the Russian Kiev column had no more reason to be there.
Okay, sure. That fits.
All I see is a chain of threads that go mostly nowhere. No, a wargame from 2002 is not relevant.
Here is the comment with the article I referred to.
Yeah, that's the one I'm talking about. Is it buried somewhere in the tiny print of the image of some magazine that somebody has highlighted all over?
Had you bothered to read the article you'd see it's not talking about a 2002 war game, but the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Man where the fuck is that forest, all I can see around here are a bunch of trees.
Well, there war goals were to protect Donbass, kill a shitload of Nazis, and de-militarize Ukraine. Plans change but it still looks like they're doing what they set out to do.
Ukraine is looking plenty militerised, and more pro-Western than ever.
There are a finite number of 18-35 year old men.
"Kill nearly every young man in Ukraine" is their main path to victory, but Russia has only about 4x the population of Ukraine, so they'll have to mind their casualty ratios pretty well. And avoid any more coups.
Presumably the young men of Ukraine will realize that throwing themselves on to the enemy guns is a losing proposition at some point before that but who knows?
It's not though. Russia, even assuming continued political unity, may well run out of weapons to give to it's troops, and then their K:D ratio will pass 4:1 easily.
Apologies if we already discussed this, I've spent way too much time in this thread already and it's blending together.
Citation needed.
Here's a map of the invasion a few weeks in. Kiev (Киев if you can't read Cyrillic) is the capital of the nation. What does it look like they tried to achieve right off the bat?
Edit: Oooh, Wikipedia has an animation if it's still not clear.
Lmao, okay.
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Depends what you're talking about. This war started in 2014 so its already been 9 years.
Press X to doubt.
Could you link that? It goes against everything I've read and I can't find it myself.
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Right back at you, although I assume you're plenty capable at learning other things.
India ramping up trade in oil and gas with Russia while refusing to even offer the most milquetoast condemnation of Russia's invasion on the world stage haven't clued you in?
Call me when they do more than not get involved.
India and China are fair-weather friends to Russia. India is also an increasingly close fair-weather friend of the West. Both the West and India see themselves as adversaries with China.
Russia's economy would have collapsed a year ago without India buying their gas.
So you think the neutral action would be an embargo, then? Buying gas at a heavy discount doesn't seem very political to me, or to the Western leaders for that matter.
Nobody who has even a modicum of understanding of geopolitics doubts this. India and Russia have a very strong relationship that goes back to the days of USSR which was one of the biggest forces that helped liberate India from western colonization. Meanwhile, Russia losing the war would be an utter disaster for China. US is very openly trying to surround China militarily, and Russia acts as a shield in the west. The worst possible outcome for China would be the west managing to destabilize Russia and put a pro western government in power. If there was even the slightest chance that Russia could lose this conflict then China would step in.
I disagree. The Cold War is ancient history and China's probably just as happy carving up Russia as living beside it.
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US literally says it wants to prevent China from developing and has surrounded it with military bases, but whatever you say buddy. The brains of Chinese leaders aren't as smooth as yours.
Every major head of state lived through the Cold War.
For example, Joe Biden was literally born when the battle of Stalingrad of World War 2 was occurring. Biden's literally old enough to have lived in the same era as the generation that lived during the American Civil War were dying out.
Anyone that was born in the 70s, for a brief time, lived on the same earth at the same time as the last living emancipated American slaves still drew their breath.
"Ancient history" is closer to us who are alive than we can truly perceive and comprehend. The past's heavy hands rest on our shoulders, burdening the present with the acts performed hitherto each passing minute.
A quote:
Give any example or argument that shows China would want to carve up Russia
More territory is good, if the opportunity would present itself this would make China stronger. They also don't want another Xinjiang they have to genocide, though, so I imagine they wouldn't actually annex much. Maybe just take back the old Qing cities and puppet the rest.
Like actual material evidence that China would want to do it and not just fantasy theory crafting in your mind
This is pure projection on what you'd do if you ran a country
They fight over territory with India all the time. And some of their other neighbors too, I think.
If I ran China, I'd make nice with the West, accept immigrants, put in a low wealth cap and expand the size and scope of their basic income. I would get executed by a coup early in the processes. The guys that do run China are allowed to do so because they feed nationalist, protectionist ideas that actually appeal to both the masses and the elite. So yeah, if it advances China's position with low risks, they'll probably do it.
PS before anyone comes at me for being dictator of China, that was specified in the scenario.
Yea cause colonial era borders drawn by the British are dumb and only colonizers would respect those
Did China used to own all of the Russia empire?
All borders are made up.
Northern borders were not defined in ancient times, but Vladivostok at least was theirs.
What do you base this on besides vibes?
OP gave me their vibes, and I responded with my vibes. Actual facts about the future of geopolitics are hard to come by (until they happen).
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Nah. That was basically Cold War propaganda, partly spread by ex-Nazis covering their asses after losing to "subhumans". Russia fought the same way every country did in it's recent wars.
Man I miss AskHistorians.
No, not at all; that's a myth started by Nazi propagandists to explain why they were losing to the Soviets, and it was picked up by USA propagandists during the cold war.
Pretty much every assuming USians have about Russia comes from Nazi propaganda.
Oh, and Ukraine is also populous. It has a quarter of Russia's population, about, so human wave wouldn't win anyway.