Oh seer of seers, sage of sages, prognosticators of prognosticators. Come divine the entrails of the financial press, for the auspices spell doom.
Boston Fed’s Rosengren is the only public official being honest with us Rosengren calls out commercial real estate and corporate debt as massive risks to the economy. He also specifically states that he is concerned about the stability of the financial system and the prospects of liquidity tightening up (which is what precipitated the acute crisis in 2008).
1 in 5 small businesses are gone for good. 42 % say they won’t be around after Q4 2020
NYC & NY State debt downgraded by credit rating agency
frankly, this one makes me shiver more than anything else. I don’t care much about nyc, but the impact that Covid is about to have on state and local budgets scares the shit out of me. Tax receipts are going to get hammered, and meager as S&L services are, they are often the lifeblood of communities.
Personally I was rattled to see another local business in our community go under. It’s just another in the long line of stories about economic forces causing human misery, but it just feels like a portent of something much larger to me. I’m sure we all have stories of friends and family members losing jobs, or having to close small businesses etc. the hits are really starting to accrue, and it seems impossible to me that the flow of capital in the US can sustain itself as economic activity continues to slow.
2021 is going to be an incredibly painful year in the US . No doubt the meme about 2021 will be that people wish they were back in the good old days of 2020. Prepare for it as best as you can - both physically and emotionally. I know I am.
I was banned from wallstreetbets for talking about the declining rate of profit
LMAO this is so incredibly on brand for WSB. The purest of ideology
FT and WSJ are the only press I read. I’ve also stopped listening to most left wing podcasts and replaced them with macro investing podcasts.
historical stuff is also good. gives you a sense of what will happen as a consequence of these forces in motion.
Yes, I do like Mike Duncan and age of Napoleon. I listen to a lot of Historical audiobooks - am 3/4 way through invisible bridge. Finished reading a stack of books on the French Revolution and my conclusion was basically “hold onto your hats”.
it's a long trend towards consolidation in the largest businesses that don't really need much land. covid just skipped 10 or 20 years of that process.
This is really great advice. Back in 2016 I became convinced that an economic depression was imminent. I started reading personal histories of the Great Depression. From that i divined that those who survived the best had the following:
- a strong local network of folks on whom they could rely and trade.
- a food source within reach of their front door. Essentially a vegetable garden with food producing animals, namely dairy cows and chickens (I realize this has its limits for a lot of folks).
- a personal outlook that accepted the loss of personal comfort and enjoyment.
a personal outlook that accepted the loss of personal comfort and enjoyment
I'm honestly so grateful for some of my wilder backcountry camping experiences, because I feel like they've given me at least a little bit of a base on this one.
Yep. The sad part is that my job for a few years was taking 14-15 year olds out for a little over a week, many from low-income or foster care situations, and the number of them that never even had access to nature is astounding.
a strong local network of folks on whom they could rely and trade.
I'm in trouble because my network(s) are all online and geographically spread out.
