the reason why biden has such high chances on fivethirtyeight is cause most of the maps show biden winning florida and/or fucking Texas, which is an absolute fever dream
Every fucking election the GOP operatives come out and say "We're worried we're going to lose {STATE_THEY_KNOW_THEY_WONT_LOSE}" and the Dems get enormous (for them) boners that they are immediately ashamed by. Pushing through their embarrassment, they say "Well, if our honorable GOP colleagues have highly accurate polling data that shows we have a chance there, we better start spending money and time on that state! It is good and just that they would tell us their deepest worries. And though we feel bad for doing so, we will use this data to our advantage."
And then the Democrats do something even fucking stupider like try to turn Amarillo blue by running some freak who went to Yale but has an uncle in the district because that's what their consultants said would play best. And to celebrate they write a bunch of checks to other consultants who are qualified because they are the children or otherwise relations of Dem party elites.
In the meantime, the GOP works on suppressing the vote anywhere they think they might lose and doing real effective push polling.
I was noticing that. I took all the possible maps and crossed out the ones where either Texas or Florida were blue, and went: "oh shit..."
I mean, yeah, I know Texas is supposed to be going blue because of metro area growth, and Florida is supposed to be going blue because of felony enfranchisement, but I don't believe either for a second.
the reason why biden has such high chances on fivethirtyeight is cause most of the maps show biden winning florida and/or fucking Texas, which is an absolute fever dream
trump has a real chance of winning
Every fucking election the GOP operatives come out and say "We're worried we're going to lose {STATE_THEY_KNOW_THEY_WONT_LOSE}" and the Dems get enormous (for them) boners that they are immediately ashamed by. Pushing through their embarrassment, they say "Well, if our honorable GOP colleagues have highly accurate polling data that shows we have a chance there, we better start spending money and time on that state! It is good and just that they would tell us their deepest worries. And though we feel bad for doing so, we will use this data to our advantage."
And then the Democrats do something even fucking stupider like try to turn Amarillo blue by running some freak who went to Yale but has an uncle in the district because that's what their consultants said would play best. And to celebrate they write a bunch of checks to other consultants who are qualified because they are the children or otherwise relations of Dem party elites.
In the meantime, the GOP works on suppressing the vote anywhere they think they might lose and doing real effective push polling.
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Apparently youth vote in texas is through the roof.
I still think it's a stupid democrat fever dream that ultimately just hurts their chances of winning, but this election is so fucking strange.
texas only goes blue in a biden landslide. 2024 is a different story though.
I was noticing that. I took all the possible maps and crossed out the ones where either Texas or Florida were blue, and went: "oh shit..."
I mean, yeah, I know Texas is supposed to be going blue because of metro area growth, and Florida is supposed to be going blue because of felony enfranchisement, but I don't believe either for a second.
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