despite it being near completely random and volatile,
This is a neoliberal myth, fwiw. It's meant to scare individuals away from the idea of "economic value" existing as a real thing vs. "marginal preferences" and all that bullshit. It's also to scare you into buying financial instruments and trusting "financial experts"
Mr. Market is a moody bastard who needs therapy, but in the long run, stocks always trend towards their actual value. The volatility is short term noise caused by the fact that markets are not perfectly rational.
in the long run, stocks always trend towards their actual value
How do you determine what a stock's "actual" value is, independently of the market? There a thousand artificial and arbitrary actions and injections that deliberately shape stock trends and the market.
Because a "stock" is just a part share ownership in a business. It's value is based on the intrinsic value of that business. There's definitely an art to it as much as a science, and it's a long term trend. Unless you're a moron who believes in the efficient market hypothesis, price and value don't always match up but trend towards each other. Fundamentally, people aren't going to keep paying 30 cents for a quarter or sell a dime for 8 cents forever.
It’s value is based on the intrinsic value of that business.
Okay, so. How is the intrinsic value of that business determined? Is there a reliable formula? Do you then have any data to show that the market value actually trends towards the intrinsic value?
How is the intrinsic value of that business determined?
All kinds of ways :). Check our Benjamin Graham's work on this like "Security Analysis". It's based on a combo of expected business profits and the value of all
Remember a stock is a REAL THING. You are an owner when you own stock, even if you're just a trader. You own a piece of that business and its profits, assets, future profits, etc.
Do you then have any data to show that the market value actually trends towards the intrinsic value?
Do you have any data to show that the price of a quarter trends towards 25 cents? Ask Warren Buffett about how he made his money.
In his case, it was very easy because there were a lot of good deals back then. In particular, Buffet would target companies whose market cap was less than the book value. "Market cap" means "how much would it cost to buy all of the stock". "Book value" is how much all their shit is worth (land, factories, equipment). If the book value is let's say $1/share and the stock
It's more complicated than that now, but the "data" is the millions of rent seekers who earn a living in the same manner as Buffet.
So there’s no way to make money off of knowing that Tesla is incredibly overvalued because very rich people could just continue to sink money into it, keeping the price high for the foreseeable future?
There's ways to make money, but there's an element of luck involved. It's like betting on a coin that you know has a 51% chance of coming up tails and you have to guess the over/under on tails out of 1000 coin flips
I feel like the markets have become so volatile that anything outside of penny stocks is just too risky for the average person
Middle class retirements depend on the stock market (401ks). The US government knows as much, which is why they are swift to keep the bubble propped up.
An index fund can certainly crash, but if it does, any cash you hoarded instead will also be worthless.
This is a neoliberal myth, fwiw. It's meant to scare individuals away from the idea of "economic value" existing as a real thing vs. "marginal preferences" and all that bullshit. It's also to scare you into buying financial instruments and trusting "financial experts"
Mr. Market is a moody bastard who needs therapy, but in the long run, stocks always trend towards their actual value. The volatility is short term noise caused by the fact that markets are not perfectly rational.
How do you determine what a stock's "actual" value is, independently of the market? There a thousand artificial and arbitrary actions and injections that deliberately shape stock trends and the market.
Because a "stock" is just a part share ownership in a business. It's value is based on the intrinsic value of that business. There's definitely an art to it as much as a science, and it's a long term trend. Unless you're a moron who believes in the efficient market hypothesis, price and value don't always match up but trend towards each other. Fundamentally, people aren't going to keep paying 30 cents for a quarter or sell a dime for 8 cents forever.
Okay, so. How is the intrinsic value of that business determined? Is there a reliable formula? Do you then have any data to show that the market value actually trends towards the intrinsic value?
All kinds of ways :). Check our Benjamin Graham's work on this like "Security Analysis". It's based on a combo of expected business profits and the value of all
Remember a stock is a REAL THING. You are an owner when you own stock, even if you're just a trader. You own a piece of that business and its profits, assets, future profits, etc.
Do you have any data to show that the price of a quarter trends towards 25 cents? Ask Warren Buffett about how he made his money.
In his case, it was very easy because there were a lot of good deals back then. In particular, Buffet would target companies whose market cap was less than the book value. "Market cap" means "how much would it cost to buy all of the stock". "Book value" is how much all their shit is worth (land, factories, equipment). If the book value is let's say $1/share and the stock
It's more complicated than that now, but the "data" is the millions of rent seekers who earn a living in the same manner as Buffet.
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Tesla will either crash, or there's insider shenanigans going on.
Prices trend towards intrinsic value in the long run. Prices can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, as they say.
So there’s no way to make money off of knowing that Tesla is incredibly overvalued because very rich people could just continue to sink money into it, keeping the price high for the foreseeable future?
Yes.
There's ways to make money, but there's an element of luck involved. It's like betting on a coin that you know has a 51% chance of coming up tails and you have to guess the over/under on tails out of 1000 coin flips
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Middle class retirements depend on the stock market (401ks). The US government knows as much, which is why they are swift to keep the bubble propped up.
An index fund can certainly crash, but if it does, any cash you hoarded instead will also be worthless.
Ok Mr Buffet