Say it without crying

  • square [none/use name]
    ·
    4 years ago

    There's quite literally no difference between trading stocks and gambling.

    • space_comrade [he/him]
      ·
      edit-2
      4 years ago

      Betting on sports matches, if you're doing it right, is probably more informed gambling than the stock market.

      • OneToughNerd [he/him]
        ·
        4 years ago

        despite it being near completely random and volatile,

        This is a neoliberal myth, fwiw. It's meant to scare individuals away from the idea of "economic value" existing as a real thing vs. "marginal preferences" and all that bullshit. It's also to scare you into buying financial instruments and trusting "financial experts"

        Mr. Market is a moody bastard who needs therapy, but in the long run, stocks always trend towards their actual value. The volatility is short term noise caused by the fact that markets are not perfectly rational.

        • KrasMazovThought [comrade/them]
          ·
          4 years ago

          in the long run, stocks always trend towards their actual value

          How do you determine what a stock's "actual" value is, independently of the market? There a thousand artificial and arbitrary actions and injections that deliberately shape stock trends and the market.

          • OneToughNerd [he/him]
            ·
            4 years ago

            Because a "stock" is just a part share ownership in a business. It's value is based on the intrinsic value of that business. There's definitely an art to it as much as a science, and it's a long term trend. Unless you're a moron who believes in the efficient market hypothesis, price and value don't always match up but trend towards each other. Fundamentally, people aren't going to keep paying 30 cents for a quarter or sell a dime for 8 cents forever.

            • KrasMazovThought [comrade/them]
              ·
              4 years ago

              It’s value is based on the intrinsic value of that business.

              Okay, so. How is the intrinsic value of that business determined? Is there a reliable formula? Do you then have any data to show that the market value actually trends towards the intrinsic value?

              • OneToughNerd [he/him]
                ·
                4 years ago

                How is the intrinsic value of that business determined?

                All kinds of ways :). Check our Benjamin Graham's work on this like "Security Analysis". It's based on a combo of expected business profits and the value of all

                Remember a stock is a REAL THING. You are an owner when you own stock, even if you're just a trader. You own a piece of that business and its profits, assets, future profits, etc.

                Do you then have any data to show that the market value actually trends towards the intrinsic value?

                Do you have any data to show that the price of a quarter trends towards 25 cents? Ask Warren Buffett about how he made his money.

                In his case, it was very easy because there were a lot of good deals back then. In particular, Buffet would target companies whose market cap was less than the book value. "Market cap" means "how much would it cost to buy all of the stock". "Book value" is how much all their shit is worth (land, factories, equipment). If the book value is let's say $1/share and the stock

                It's more complicated than that now, but the "data" is the millions of rent seekers who earn a living in the same manner as Buffet.

              • OneToughNerd [he/him]
                ·
                4 years ago

                Tesla will either crash, or there's insider shenanigans going on.

                Prices trend towards intrinsic value in the long run. Prices can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, as they say.

                • femboi [they/them, she/her]
                  ·
                  4 years ago

                  So there’s no way to make money off of knowing that Tesla is incredibly overvalued because very rich people could just continue to sink money into it, keeping the price high for the foreseeable future?

                  • OneToughNerd [he/him]
                    ·
                    4 years ago

                    Yes.

                    There's ways to make money, but there's an element of luck involved. It's like betting on a coin that you know has a 51% chance of coming up tails and you have to guess the over/under on tails out of 1000 coin flips

          • OneToughNerd [he/him]
            ·
            4 years ago

            I feel like the markets have become so volatile that anything outside of penny stocks is just too risky for the average person

            Middle class retirements depend on the stock market (401ks). The US government knows as much, which is why they are swift to keep the bubble propped up.

            An index fund can certainly crash, but if it does, any cash you hoarded instead will also be worthless.

    • OneToughNerd [he/him]
      ·
      4 years ago

      Ironically, the WallStreetBets people aren't gambling. They've got the hedge funds by the balls, and they know it. This is like a modern day wildcat strike.

        • OneToughNerd [he/him]
          ·
          4 years ago

          Basically they're collaborating to force the hand of the hedge funds, independently without an organization. Hedge funds with short positions need to buy shares. They have a debt that has to come due. Everyday they don't pay, they pay interest on the outstanding shares. The higher the price rises, the more money the shorts have to pay in interest. The more they pay, the deeper the hole they get in and the more return they need from the eventual collapse.

          By refusing to sell, the WSB guys are arbitrarily pushing the price higher and higher. The longer they hold the line, the more they force the hand of the short sellers. It's a classic "short squeeze", but it's unique because it's driven by retail investors instead of other hedge funds. It's just like how workers pushed to the brink can refuse to work and cost a business money, even if it means losing a paycheck.

          • NonWonderDog [he/him]
            ·
            edit-2
            4 years ago

            Of course, the real winners are the ones the hedge funds are paying interest to.

            And possibly whatever fund is paying Robinhood for trade info so they can front-run it with HFT.

            • AntifaCEO [he/him]
              ·
              edit-2
              4 years ago

              Unfettered Greed baby! "Haha infinite potential loss? That would never happen TO ME!"

              Edit: more seriously, options come with premiums and can still lose you money even if the stock did in fact go down (i.e. You buy a PUT for $5, the stock is at $4 currently, but the PUT costs you more than $2 because there is a premium to pay based on a bunch of Greek alphabet astrology, so you'd only make money if the stock goes down to $3 or less)

            • SpezCanSTILLSuckMyDi [none/use name]
              ·
              4 years ago

              On the whole, buying options is a losing proposition. Options were literally designed as insurance against unfavorable moves. What happens with insurance companies? They usually make a whole fuckload of money. It's those long tail, black swan events that wipe them out.

  • LeninsRage [he/him]
    ·
    4 years ago

    Its funny because neoliberal ideology fetishizes risk-taking and proliferates gambling everywhere

      • RNAi [he/him]
        hexagon
        ·
        4 years ago

        Ah yes, the revolution is imminent, it's not like there are a fuckton of worse contradictions just laying there, fucking thousands of people's lives every second.

      • kimilsungist [they/them]
        ·
        4 years ago

        ahh yes i cant wait for athiest capitalism that serves the interests of the people (after we make some money first of course) led by democratic (dictator) Elon Moosk and first lady Groimes

      • ultraviolet [she/her]
        ·
        4 years ago

        I can assume many people doing this know the system is designed against them and are doing this to "get back" at the big guys. Ripe for radicalization.

  • TheModerateTankie [any]
    ·
    4 years ago

    If I sold my share right now I would pocket 200 bucks, lol. Courtesy of the worst people on earth. In theory (not at all likely) these short sellers could end up having to buy back the stock for more money than exists in the economy. That's how bad of a position they are in if people hold the stock when they are forced to buy back. If I understand things correctly, they used a 3 billion loan to double down on shorts.

    And if I sold now, in the time it took to writing all that, I would walk away with 300.

    This is funny as hell. Just a totally logical investment.

    • Washburn [she/her]
      ·
      4 years ago

      Capitalism is the most rational economic system. That's why a company that is headed toward banruptcy faster than Blockbuster in the late 2000s has a share price of $375.

  • SteamedHamberder [he/him]
    ·
    4 years ago

    “I’m a retail investor!” I scream as I frantically purchase lotto scratchers from a vending machine.

  • AsleepInspector
    ·
    4 years ago

    "THIS IS NOT WHAT THE MARKET IS FOR" :porky-scared:

    • RNAi [he/him]
      hexagon
      ·
      4 years ago

      "the poors are using our own tools to fuck over our dear hedge fund managers, how rowdy"

  • Notcontenttobequiet [he/him]
    ·
    4 years ago

    Look, Chumbawumba when you trade on Wall Street you're going to get knocked down, and you'll get up again. No one is going to keep you down.

  • WhatDoYouMeanPodcast [comrade/them]
    ·
    edit-2
    4 years ago

    I'm so sure this is exactly what the market is for I unironically cannot imagine another reason for the markets to exist. You put in some capital on an idea and you either win money or lose money on the idea.

    What does she think the market is for?