No update today, but your regularly scheduled programming will continue tomorrow.
Links and Stuff
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Yesterday's discussion post.
Finland going to join Nato? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/finland-s-leaders-call-for-nato-membership-without-delay/ar-AAXbjXM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8f52e56bc67f4479aed1b0f4ba6cf3bd
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"Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop threats to its national security arising," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Sounds like maybe you might be right, hopefully this is just posturing
I think Russia has previously stated that NATO expansion in Finland will mean that they will station nuclear weapons in the Baltic area.
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The soviets definitely would have put some there.
They have them already but NATO expansion will lead to strengthening of Russian military presence in the region.
Also, all those fish eating scandis already are effectively NATO. They have militaries that cooperate with NATO, run joint drills and are traine on the same tactics. Them joining is mostly formality. Ukraine joining is not a formality, it’s a major power grab by the west
It would be very interesting to see what NATO would do if Russia rolled tanks in to Helsinki. Personally I think NATO would hang them out to dry, maybe launch symbolic air strikes across the border. I don't see all of NATO committing to full mobilization for a country with a GDP equivalent to Musk's stock portfolio.
On the other hand, St. Petersburg is a pleasant ~200km drive from the Finnish border. But I suppose it doesn't change much since Finland is already very western and also Estonia (Narva) is closer.
Finland, famously easy to drive tanks on. Not like we call them that because of their vast swampland.
Yeah aggressive NATO expansion totally isn't an issue
But you see, NATO is a defensive alliance so nabody has anything to fear from them.
You know it's true because I put emphasis on defensive.
What do you mean putting my vassal state on your border is encroaching on you?
It's more that Finland isn't an issue. it's extremely difficult to navigate, it's not on the road to anywhere important, and it has the population of one large city. Finland joining NATO doesn't really give NATO any new capabilities. At worst it seems Helsinki is roughly within anti-ship missile range of St. Petersburg. I dunno, I got owned on Russia invading Ukraine, but I don't see a way that invading Finland would advantage Russia.
yeah, looks like it. such a fucking dumb move provoking Russia honestly like all this does is raise tensions. like tbh if Finland was invaded NATO would get involved, they're an EU country and matter unlike Ukraine. Russia was never gonna touch Finland but now the Finns pissed in their face and are gonna act like the retaliation is proof they needed to join
Next week (probably Monday) the Finnish parliament will have a special session to discuss a NATO application, maybe it will take 1 more day for counter arguments. They want to rush but also don't want to give the appearance to the public that they made a hasty decision. So I'd guess like next Wednesday or Thursday.
Submission of a NATO application nearing completion - see what will happen in the coming days (in Finnish)
Translation
The positive NATO position of the President and the Prime Minister paves the way for the submission of a NATO application. Before that, the process is still needed for a few days.
The attitude of the parties is already largely known, but the SDP's position is still expected from the party council on Saturday. With the announcement by Prime Minister Sanna Marin , it is clear at the latest that the SDP supports Finland's military alliance.
On Sunday, the Foreign and Security Policy Committee of the President and the Government will meet to decide on applying for NATO membership and taking the matter to Parliament.
Parliament will be called to an extraordinary session as early as Monday at 10 a.m. The historic debate is likely to spark a lot of speeches, so consideration will take some time.
According to President Matti Vanhanen (center), a referendum will be held on Monday's session on the government's proposal, which will state the exact position of the president and the government on the submission of the application.
It is expected that a vote will be taken at the end of the deliberations, as a counter-proposal is likely to be tabled among MPs.
Does Russia have revanchist aims in Finland? I think the situation is very different there; Finland doesn't have a meaningful Russian ethnic minority, which was one of the causus belli for Russia. Finland also doesn't have a warm water port, and as far as I know is not a major transshipment route for Russian products going in the EU. I don't know what you'd do once you invaded Finland. Occupy Helsinki for some reason? Herd reindeer? There's only five million people in the country. The Russians already have a port at St. Petersburg. I'm not sure what strategic gain you'd get from invading Finland other than a lot of pissed of Finns.
Yeah I think you're on the mark, I don't see any particular gain for Russia from taking Finland. If anything I think the Finns would lowkey love to someday take back the Karelian territory including the city of Vyborg (Viipuri) which they ceded in WW2. I think the situation is more that a lot of center and right wing Finns think it was a mistake not to join NATO 30 years ago, and this is a lucky second chance.
Did they have a referendum or something back in the day? Sucks when your government coups your government to join the Nazi Atlantic Treaty Organization when people aren't for it. I mean it sucks regardless but doing it all sneaky also sucks.
Should preface that I don't have extensive knowledge of Finnish politics, I only moved to Finland a few years ago. So I'm more of an outsider. I don't think there's ever been a referendum, but I think joining NATO would definitely get support if they did do a referendum. A polling agency does polling every year to gauge public opinion. (Title: Finland should join NATO. Green = yes, red = no, talvi = winter, syksy = autumn). After the Ukraine invasion, support jumped by like 30%, so that the president thinks a referendum isn't even necessary because it is already clear what the population thinks. Now support is at 76% based on May polling.
So :shrug-outta-hecks: technically they'll join without a referendum but I don't think Finnish people will be upset. I think more of them were upset that some pro-Russian citizens had parades on May 9.