Image is of the aftermath of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.
We are now almost one year into the war and genocide in Gaza. Despite profound hardship, the Gazan Resistance continues its battles against the enemy, entirely undeterred. Despite Israeli proclamations throughout 2024 that they have cleared out Hamas from various places throughout Gaza, we still see regular attacks and ambushes against Zionist forces. Just today (Monday), Al Qassam fighters ambushed and destroyed another convoy of Israeli vehicles. The predictions early on in the war were that Israel would defeat Hamas in mere months, needing only until December, then January, and so on. This has proven very much untrue. Israel is stuck in the mud; unable to destroy their enemy due to their lack of knowledge about the "Gaza Metro" and, of course, a lack of actual fighting skill, given how many times I've seen Zionists getting shot while they gaze wistfully out of windows.
The same quagmire will occur in Lebanon, only considerably worse. Both Nasrallah and Sinwar possess a similar strategy of luring Zionist forces onto known, friendly territory, replete with traps and ambushes, to bleed them dry of equipment, manpower, and the will to continue fighting. The scale of the invasion could fall anywhere on the spectrum from "very limited" - more of a series of raids on Hezbollah positions than truly trying to occupy land - to a total invasion which would seek to permanently take control of Southern Lebanon. Neither is likely to destroy, or even substantially diminish Hezbollah's fighting abilities. This is not wishful thinking: Hezbollah has convincingly defeated Israel twice before in its history, pushing them from their territory, and both times Hezbollah had almost no missiles and a limited supply of other equipment, relying on improvisation as often as not. The Hezbollah of 2024 is an entirely different organization to that of the early 2000s.
Attempts to drive wedges between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon are also unlikely to succeed. Hezbollah is not just a military force, it is extremely interlinked into various communities throughout Lebanon, drawing upon those communities to recruit soldiers. Throughout its history, it has provided education, healthcare, reconstruction, and dozens of other services one would attribute to a state. Amal Saad's recent suggestion of using "quasi-state actor" as a more respectful replacement for the typical "non-state actor" seems advisable. And the decentralized command structures, compartmented leadership, strong succession planning, and aforementioned community ties almost entirely neutralizes the effectiveness of assassinations. Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem has confirmed that Hezbollah's path has been set by Nasrallah, and his martyrdom will not stop nor even pause their efforts. Additionally, he confirmed that despite the recent attacks by Israel which nominally focussed on destroying missile depots, Hezbollah's supply of weapons has not been degraded, and they are still only using the minimum of their capabilities.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Tropical Storm Milton is expected to make landfall in Florida as a major Category 3 hurricane, NHC says. Storm surge expected to be significant.
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my homie just moved out there and i've sent too many "you good??" texts recently
No better time to send a 80 billion dollars package to "israel" than now
atlanta dodging these like neo in the matrix
Tampa has been dodging these for years. Cooked now.
that's the cone of possible paths the storm could take not the size it will be, so it depends on how wide it actually ends up and which way it potentially swerves. there's still time to avoid it or stop it in its track and pluck it from midair and say "whoa"
That thing is gonna be fucking massive
i read that as a solid 1 in 4 or 5 chance that tampa doesn't get hit by sustained 34+ knot winds in the next 5 days.
Oh my God m0istcritical
If it drifts north Augusta is fuuuuucked
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This is going to radicalize so many people in the worst way possible.
In 10 years nyt is going to publish an article about how Israel ruined the US and why Zionists (read: Jews) are to blame
Yeah, normal people just look at amerikkkan support for isntreal and start going "Huh, maybe the jews do control the media and the country."
shit is going to be bleak in a few years
Xtians will once again blame the Jews for their mistakes. We'll see those judeo-christian values that xtians practiced on the Jews for centuries resurface unsurprisingly.
The one "good" thing about the occupation of Palestine is that it made antisemitism politically inopportune in the west. I would not at all be surprised if the west will revert back to it's true antisemitic values once the zionist occupiers are kicked out.
This is not a justification of the apartheid, genocide and colonialism btw. Palestine should be free from the river to the sea. You can not make one people suffer because of the crimes of another.
No it actually solidified anti-semitism.
If you say not all Jews are Zionists, you're antisemitic.
If you say not all Jews believe in settler colonialism, you're antisemitic.
If you believe that Jews do not need their own homeland bc we should strive to make countries liveable and safe for all, you're being antisemitic.
This Zionism thing took every Nazi lie and turned them into unquestionable truths. If you call out ANY of it, then you're the antisemite.
If this level of messaging continues or intensifies in the next decade then we could absolutely see the return of classical antisemitism.
All it needs is one "was the alt-right right about Zionism" to light the fuse.
You're right about Zionism being a deeply antisemitic ideology but it is a different kind of antisemitism. I didn't express myself clearly on that one.
Classical western "the Jews are the cause of our misfortune"-antisemitism has disappeared from acceptable politics opinion, which is an undeniably good development. It has been replaced by a new "the Jews are beset on conquest and dominance, and that's a good thing"-antisemitism that a different type of antisemitism that doesn't pose as imminent a physical threat to western Jews as the classical one did.
No, I understood your point. My point was that it sets up the Jews as the source of misfortune albeit for slightly different reasons this time.
That is a crazy path.
Imagine it going north like the last one...Appalachia would be toast
Sometimes storms hang out in the gulf, pick up steam, and then clobber the gulf coast. But yeah doubling back to Florida seems exceptional.
Western liberals would rather kill people abroad than save lives at home
nuke the hurricane