Prepping the battlefield for removing Biden.
55% of respondents say they would vote for Trump in the 2024 Republican primary, compared to 29% who say they would vote for DeSantis. Other Republicans receiving support include former Vice President Mike Pence (6%) and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (3%).
55% of respondents say they expect Trump to be the nominee regardless of whom they support, compared to 35% who say they expect DeSantis to be the nominee.
58% of Democrat primary or caucus voters say Biden should be the party's nominee in 2024.
42% of respondents say it should be someone else.
44% of voters say they approve of the job Biden is doing compared to 48% who disapprove.
If he had been impeached and removed from office, yeah he'd be banned from ever holding public office again, but the senate acquitted him both times
Elections: BAD BOURGEOSIE
Polls: I accept them at face value and they have a good track record of being accurate.
42% of respondents say it should be someone else.
If it's this high among likely voters, imagine what the real percentage is.
Polls: I accept them at face value and they have a good track record of being accurate.
They actually have. Both Brexit and Hillary were in the margin of error of polls. (I'm not talking about analysts making fancy graphs for a living, I'm talking about the actual polls.)
There's a tingling in my heart that something even funnier will happen, something no one expects at all, like Bloomberg becoming the Republican nominee somehow.
Manchin goes all in as a mild Republican with Tulsi as VP and storms ahead on the 'coke not woke' ticket, while Joe gets woodworm and visibly crumbles during the election period.
I bet a "moderate" (far right, of course) / "unity" ticket would actually win. Whether it's Manchin or someone else.
Those types have the highest name recognition and national profile right now, and liberalism--which the country is still all in on (arguably even more so after Trump)--demands the "return to sanity" candidate.
Funniest would be the president elect dying or somehow getting disqualified before inauguration day.
:maybe-later-kiddo: Primarying a sitting president would go against the norms and it wouldn't be civil
But who else do Democrats have on the bench? Transportation Secretary Pete? Charismatic blackhole Kamala? Media blackout Bernie?
Unless Warren the Snake takes Biden down for mishandling TS documents then there's nobody that can do better than Biden.
yeah, they have a remarkably unlikeable field. Biden, because hes from the yesteryears when stuff kind of worked at least, has a leg up on all the newer ones because the newer ones have an ideological commitment to being giant losers, or something.
Lmfao imagine if haz was still here and he read this, mfer probably would start getting his clapping seals to start pushing "a vote for trump is a vote against NATO fascism"
:smedly-exhausted: why is every presidential election getting more wild than the last? This shit's exhausting.
Mmm yeah, I'd rather deal with the old drama queen who doesn't really give a shit about the conservative culture war brainworms, even though he filled his admin with them, being the gop challenger rather than the leading political brainworm of the GOP culture war project.
And at least the election itself would be slightly more comedic than it would be with that Floridian stick in the mud
Yeah. A while back. He was shilling his YouTube channel and got banned pretty quickly.
I remember telling him, without knowing it's him, that if I wanted to listen to a bunch of incomprehensible screaming I'd rather go to a zoo
DeSuckAss has no path to win the primary unless a very serious scandal breaks on Trump within the next year
The immediate aftermath of the mid-term, ie right now, is the low point for Trump's fortunes within the GOP because he was the demonstrable loser. Thats already passing. DeSuckAss peaked at around 34% and is already falling.
Trump embodies the venal psyche of these people too much. Pandora's Box is open, they'll accept no substitute.
unless a very serious scandal breaks on Trump within the next year
a bombshell document revealing that trump was at no point horny for his own daughter
I'm surprised he didn't just do a "RRrrrrrrronaldooooo Dee Santis" to really make it just very very clear that name comes from south of the border.
Seriously we gotta start mailing these burns to Trump, our big wet boy needs some ammo
DeSuckAss has no path to win the primary unless a very serious scandal breaks on Trump within the next year
I could very easily see a future in which the conservatives all focus fire on Trump for six months, state-level officials all turn on him and hedge him off ballots or harass his campaign staff or otherwise treat him like shit.
I could also so the GOP just kinda rolling aside and letting the Biden DOJ tear into Trump. Let the Democrats do the dirty work and rush in to perp-walk Trump out of South Carolina the night of the first primary.
But all of this hinges on the theory that these politicians can do anything absent the consent of law enforcement. And law enforcement still seems to be solidly in Trump's camp. So... idk.
conservatives all focus fire on Trump for six months
They couldn't pull that off in 2016, when it was much easier. I doubt they can pull it off now.
They couldn’t pull that off in 2016
They didn't try. The GOP pinned all its hopes on Jeb Bush, thinking Trump was going to be another sideshow attraction like Herman Cain or Fred Thompson. By the time Trump was parading through Florida, mopping up delegates, the only candidates they had left to rally around were Ted Cruz and John Kasich.
They did try, but as you point out they started circling the wagons too late, and it didn't work. Part of that is initially viewing Trump as a sideshow, but part of it was a lack of internal coordination. Some party figures may have preferred Jeb, but they weren't organized enough to do what Democrats did that same year -- run basically a one-candidate primary and kneecap any upstart challengers.
Now that there are some number of Trump loyalists in the party, that type of coordinated fix seems impossible. They don't have a popular ex-president who can swoop in and do it, and there will likely be a few more "serious" candidates to further fracture the establishment opinion.
Some party figures may have preferred Jeb, but they weren’t organized enough to do what Democrats did that same year – run basically a one-candidate primary and kneecap any upstart challengers.
Hillary nearly made the same mistake. She thought she was in a one-candidate primary and then ceded Sanders the entire Midwest.
Then she stumbled into the general election thinking "Oh, but this time I've got a lock on the win" and still lost on an electoral-college technicality.
Now that there are some number of Trump loyalists in the party, that type of coordinated fix seems impossible.
Definitely more difficult. But if the Dems pile on, I can still see him losing. If Trump can't campaign in New York and California because the AGs are chasing him with warrants? And the Dems do for DeSantis what Hillary did for Trump six years ago, just thumbing the scale in his favor wherever they've got state control? I could absolutely see Buttigieg's Shadow Inc losing count of all the Trump caucus voters in Iowa.
I could also see national media just kinda... ignoring him. Like, he simply doesn't appear on FOX or CNN or MSNBC for a few weeks before the primary. They do the Bernie Sanders trick of forgetting to put his name on polls or into infographics.
Will it guarantee a defeat? No. Will it do anything for a lame schmuck like DeSantis? Probably not. That guy sucks and he's going to struggle outside the Gulf Coast. But I can see some other candidate catching fire - a Greg Abbott or Kristi Noem or some high profile business clown like Herman Caine - and simply eating into Trump's margins because mass media won't stop talking about them.
Just kinda hinges on whether corporate news can resist Trump doing something Trumpy and not pointing at him.
She didn't really 'cede' the Midwest. It was more of an elite contempt. In the days before the general election, Dems in those states were screaming that Hillary needed to fly in and inspire people, there was a real chance she could lose. She was going to jam the election in their faces and prove she could win without them. Fuck flyover territory.
When it didn't work, guess whose fault it was? Hillary's for failing to campaign? Hell no it was those deplorable middle Americans fault for not voting the way the corporate media clearly told them to. They can't even follow simple fucking instructions.
Dems in those states were screaming that Hillary needed to fly in and inspire people, there was a real chance she could lose.
The Clintons incinerated much of their goodwill in the Midwest when they signed on to Bush Sr's NAFTA bill in defiance of the Midwest voter base. They spent the next twenty years just doubling down.
I think she was avoiding the state in large part because she wasn't welcome.
Hell no it was those deplorable middle Americans fault for not voting the way the corporate media clearly told them to.
No shortage of pro-Republican corporate media in the Midwest
He unfortunately has the advantage of being much younger and able to wait for Donald to die...
If Trump wins the primary, the GOP doubles down on being a unified party around him. All the institutional figures either kissed the ring or went to the wilderness after 2016; you'd see the same thing again. Trump also probably has the best odds in a general election.
If DeSantis or someone else wins, it's a split party where you'll have Trump dead-enders vs. neocons/normal-passing fascists. DeSantis is also more likely to lose the general.
I see the latter as weaker opposition than the former.
All the institutional figures either kissed the ring or went to the wilderness after 2016; you’d see the same thing again
I don't think this happens from winning a primary, only if he goes on to win the general.
Honestly if Trump wins the primary but get beat again in the general I think that would be the end of him and even his movement would lose a lot of influence
The conventional wisdom used to be that if you lost twice in a row you don't deserve another chance at an election. But since the Democratic Party loves politicians whose entire platform is "I lost a close election, and then I lost another by a larger margin" I'm not sure how the script goes anymore.
I know the immediate focus is on 2024, but honestly, I doubt DeSantis will win. I'm much more concerned about 2028 and beyond, where the likelihood grows much higher. His name and brand as the "anti-woke" politician is already cropping up everywhere, garnering fascist support, and he's going to have a few years to shift it into overdrive. It's going to happen, even if it's later rather than sooner.
its gonna get worse under trump, but under Desantis its going to become a fucking nightmare
100% agree. DeSantis scares the shit out of me. If it’s a close race between the two I genuinely might register as a Republican to vote for Trump because I would rather basically anyone than DeSantis.
DeSantis is the only current American politician I’m worried has a real possibility to put every single person on this site in a camp.
At this point in the 2016 election cycle, Romney was in first place, Jeb was in second, and Trump was six months away from cracking 15%.
Yeah I’m not particularly concerned about this but it will be extremely funny to watch my weathervane family flop back to being trump supporters again if he starts doing well after going kinda cold on him the last year
Didn't the chapo boys make a point of Emerson being a fake pollster?
I don't totally disagree, but I do think there's a lane for a "sensible" or "competent" republican type. You're right tho, they'll have to be as deranged and they'll have to support all the trump policies, like build the wall and such.
It's also pretty easy for them to invent a personality for their guy. Think of all the drawings of trump with a six pack
They'll just shift to getting off to the unrepentant fascism.
Nah. Every point he drops in fun he makes up in unrepentant fascist hatred. He’ll have no problem getting the MAGA morons on his side, and both the quiet suburban christo-fascists and big-capital love him because he’s committed to the most evil garbage but also makes sure business still makes their money.
I feel like Pete running for president instead of Biden or Kamala opens up space for a socialist party to run a candidate, not to win, obviously, but to draw people to the cause. Kamala is extremely unpopular, Biden is the only one who can keep the party together, but there are serious divisions between the old and young with regard to Pete.
Are there? My extended family of libs, young and old, were behind Mayo Pete one hundred percent.
I realized this after reading the article:
Biden has solidified his support among minority voters in his party, 72% of Hispanic Democratic voters and 75% of Black Democratic voters think Biden should be the nominee in 2024, whereas 51% of White Democratic voters think someone else should be the Democratic nominee next year.
Wealthier/older BIPOC in the Democratic party versus younger white people in the same party?
I met an 18 year-old Indian American Pete supporter once lol
Now, the exception proves the rule, but this shit does happen. No demographic is absolutely off limits for any single candidate.
There are exceptions but all you have to do is compare Bernie’s crowds with Pete’s.
I know there's a 0.01% chance of this happening, but I would love to see Chokwe Antar Lumumba run for the nomination, even if it's within the Democratic party. Would be something to see. I'm trying my own little version of "The Secret" and maybe by posting about him running I can make it happen.
I soured on him when Jackson stopped having potable water, which is evidently still the case there.
I don't know anything about his involvement in it but my understanding is that mayors had most of their power stripped in the last half century and that specifically Jackson's water crisis is the inevitable result of Reaganism intentionally making water system maintenance financially impossible
I soured on him when Jackson stopped having potable water, which is evidently still the case there.
He's not really entirely responsible for that, honestly I'd say he shares the least blame, most of that goes to his state government and previous administrations.
no but you see, trump is done because [same reasons trump was done in 2016 election]
DeSantis is getting the Giuliani treatment and will probably start out strong but I kind of don't think he'll live up to the hype. He's a lot more realistic than people were about Tom Cotton, but not enough.
