As Marxist economist Michael Roberts explains in a recent post, core inflation in Western economies isn't going down:
This is what worries central banks. And what it also shows is that interest-rate hikes have little effect on reducing inflation, which rose because of food and energy prices, something central banks cannot control and are now falling for reasons nothing to do with central banks. Instead, central bank rate hikes are increasing the cost of borrowing to spend for households and invest for companies. Indeed, as ECB chief Lagarde said at her press conference, monetary tightening was being ‘very efficient’ in squeezing the real economy. As I have argued in a previous post, profits are now being squeezed as price inflation abates. And rising interest rates are squeezing companies at the other end.
Sure, if consumer spending and business investment slumps, then core inflation will eventually fall, but only as economies drop into recession. Even then, the major economies may enter a slump in production and a rise in unemployment this year, but still have inflation rates well above the levels of two years ago – the worst of all possible worlds.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Here is the archive of important pieces of analysis from throughout the war that we've collected.
February 6th's update is here on the site and here in the comments.
February 7th's update is here on the site and here in the comments.
February 8th's update is here on the site and here in the comments.
February 10th's update is here on the site and here in the comments.
February 11th's update is here on the site and here in the comments.
Links and Stuff
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. I recommend their map more than the channel at this point, as an increasing subscriber count has greatly diminished their quality.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources. Beware of chuddery.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are fairly brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. The Duran, of which he co-hosts, is where the chuddery really begins to spill out.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.
https://t.me/asbmil ~ Now rebranded as Battlefield Insights, they do infrequent posts on the conflict.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of the really big pro-Russian (except when they're being pessismistic, which is often) telegram channels focussing on the war. Russian language.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Any Western media outlet that is even vaguely liberal (and quite a few conservative ones too).
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
Stalkers venturing into the Ohio Excusion Zone to seek rare Faygo deposits
You’re laughing. China used a balloon and now knows where the United States is located and you’re laughing
Even then, the major economies may enter a slump in production and a rise in unemployment this year, but still have inflation rates well above the levels of two years ago – the worst of all possible worlds.
Right as all COVID protections/stimulus are axed. The US government has been subsidising food benefits with a $250/mo COVID stimulus. That's ending in March despite staple foods being at least like 30% more expensive than pre-COVID prices and rent/home ownership inflating in value. And El Nino poised to come back with the hottest years on record right as waterways are dissolving due to drought.
No compassion, no compassion, no excuses :shrug-outta-hecks:
Cost of living had increased by something like 40% over the past 2 years...
I wanted to make sarcastic comment about Americans being domesticated, but then I remember that my appartment complex has had its rent increased something like 3 times in the past 12 months, and all we did about it was complain on Facebook.
I'm now spending $2000/month for a slum with asbestos ceiling tiles
Isn't El Nino usually associated with wetter conditions in western North America? That will presumably lessen (locally) what is likely to the hottest year on record, so far.
It only makes the southern US wetter. The north becomes warmer and the Midwest becomes drier.
An El Niño would benefit the western United States, which is where the droughts are most severe.
Shoutout to Lula who has almost certainly had to endure an entire day of Biden calling him "Mr. Castro" by mistake
North Korean balloon briefly spotted over South Korea, Seoul says
The balloon briefly entered South Korean airspace on Sunday, the Ministry of Defense said in a statement, adding it in response had taken unspecified “measures”.
The craft left South Korean airspace a few hours later and officials believe it was a weather balloon not one intended for spying activities, Yonhap news agency reported, citing an unnamed official.
🎈 :kim-drip-too-hard: 🎈
Insane that we just know America blew up the NS2 pipeline and nobody gives a fuck
the total and complete blackout in both mass media and social media of the literal Death Cloud enveloping PA and OH right now scares the shit out of me
Chinese balloon contained technology to monitor communication signals, US says
Lmfao still doubling down :data-laughing:
To get things rolling, something from the last breath of the previous thread:
Something that won't be rolling very soon through Ukraine are the promised Leopards.
Euros be like: umm, ackshually we'd maybe like to hold onto those neat little tanks we got here.
When Defense Minister Boris Pistorius attempted to obtain concrete commitments for tank deliveries from other owners of "Leopard 2" tanks [...], the German minister only received refusals, the editorial reported over the weekend. Neither the Netherlands nor Poland [...] were now willing to name time horizons for such deliveries. Poland had been willing to supply tanks but not spare parts, Portugal had found the ammunition it needed too expensive, and the government in The Hague had not wanted to commit itself to anything, the Hamburg magazine reported. Meanwhile, word from Canada on Saturday was that the first of four promised "Leopard 2s" was on its way to Ukraine.
full article
According to a report in Der Spiegel, the broad intra-NATO coalition sought by Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the supply of battle tanks to Ukraine is tottering even before the first "Leopard" has been put on the march. When Defense Minister Boris Pistorius attempted to obtain concrete commitments for tank deliveries from other owners of "Leopard 2" tanks during a telephone conference, the German minister only received refusals, the editorial reported over the weekend. Neither the Netherlands nor Poland, which had called most loudly for tank deliveries in the run-up to the talks, were now willing to name time horizons for such deliveries. Poland had been willing to supply tanks but not spare parts, Portugal had found the ammunition it needed too expensive, and the government in The Hague had not wanted to commit itself to anything, the Hamburg magazine reported. Meanwhile, word from Canada on Saturday was that the first of four promised "Leopard 2s" was on its way to Ukraine.
In Ukraine, meanwhile, the calls of the government for international arms assistance are becoming increasingly desperate. President Volodimir Selensky said on the sidelines of Friday's summit with EU leaders that his country would hold Bachmut and liberate the Donbass if it received more long-range missiles and Western fighter jets. Conversely, this means that both goals are unattainable for Kiev at this point in time. Zelensky's adviser Mikhailo Podolyak called on the West to give Ukraine all the weapons it had at its disposal in the first place.
Russian attacks are reported from the front in the rear of Bachmut, north of it in the Lugansk district, and near Wugledar southwest of Donetsk. According to a report from British intelligence, the village of Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut is now also under Russian fire. The last road to Bachmut runs through the village, which until recently was not within the radius of Russian guns.
The funniest possible outcome.
The pressure was intended to subjugate Germany. It’s not about the tanks, and it never was. They have broken their relationship with Russia for potentially decades by giving in.
Would you jump off a cliff if all your friends told you to? I guarantee they’re not following behind, no matter what they say.
I pump my fist as I watch the second chinese balloon get shot down, meanwhile a fine mist of phosgene and benzene settles gently around and on me
I just watched an Austrian news report where they stated that Austria paid Russia in over 7 billion Euros, 3 times as much for natural gas in 2022 than in the years before the war. :data-laughing:
The statistics also showed that they are back to importing 70% of their gas from Russia :michael-laugh:
Natoids are gonna have to try really, really hard to convince me that Russia's economy will collapse anytime soon.
