Exactly what the ghost said. The media reports 1.5-2. that's already locked in. The most up to date data I've seen shows that we are already at about 1-1.5 C above preindustrial levels. Like, right now.
The actual models are showing our current track puts us towards 5-8C if nothing changes in the way we are using fossil fuels and consumption.
These also still underestimate the way we're seeing positive feedback mechanisms and tipping points occurring like Antarctic warming, disruption of the ocean currents, and methane release from the permafrost.
I think 1.5C is story book catastrophe. 5C is to the Earth what Luke's torpedoes were to the death star. 8C is as incomprehensible as a billionaire's wealth.
Edit: I might have misspoke, it looks like 1.5C is the target which, while still warm and damaging and causing catastrophe, isn't a storybook horror. I think I heard an off-the-cuff about how bad 3C is.
I have such a hard time understanding that but embarrassed to admit it. Could you explain or link to something that goes into why a few degrees matter so much?
Of course. I'm sorry I can't find anything salient about how terrible anything above 2C is. If anyone wants to help I'd be grateful, but I'm going to continue on from here.
My gut tells me it was the citations needed episode 108 where I would have heard something like this - it's absolutely something everyone should check out as it is the official podcast of the Lemmy
I'm sorry, but are we talking about a 5-8 degree Celsius increase? I thought we were worrying about 1.5 or 2 degrees
Exactly what the ghost said. The media reports 1.5-2. that's already locked in. The most up to date data I've seen shows that we are already at about 1-1.5 C above preindustrial levels. Like, right now.
The actual models are showing our current track puts us towards 5-8C if nothing changes in the way we are using fossil fuels and consumption.
These also still underestimate the way we're seeing positive feedback mechanisms and tipping points occurring like Antarctic warming, disruption of the ocean currents, and methane release from the permafrost.
It's very depressing, we need big change.
I think 1.5C is story book catastrophe. 5C is to the Earth what Luke's torpedoes were to the death star. 8C is as incomprehensible as a billionaire's wealth.
Edit: I might have misspoke, it looks like 1.5C is the target which, while still warm and damaging and causing catastrophe, isn't a storybook horror. I think I heard an off-the-cuff about how bad 3C is.
I have such a hard time understanding that but embarrassed to admit it. Could you explain or link to something that goes into why a few degrees matter so much?
https://xkcd.com/1732/
This is the clearest and most concise I've ever seen it presented. I'll try to find the expert quote I heard about that 1.5C comment, one sec
Here's a digestable surface level news site talking about the significance of the half degree between 1.5 and 2 extolling the insanity of 5-8
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338
thanks for the xkcd and the news article. damn that's scary.
Of course. I'm sorry I can't find anything salient about how terrible anything above 2C is. If anyone wants to help I'd be grateful, but I'm going to continue on from here.
My gut tells me it was the citations needed episode 108 where I would have heard something like this - it's absolutely something everyone should check out as it is the official podcast of the Lemmy
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Real Mesozoic hours in here
Dang. Well I sure hope you're wrong, for all our sakes
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a 1.5 and subsequently 2 degrees set us on a path of 4-5 degree celsius by 2100