One year on. Hundreds of thousands are dying or dead, millions are displaced, the Middle East is undergoing its greatest changes in a generation, Iran has directly attacked Israel twice in one year, and Yemen has proven that the US Navy ain't worth shit. We are the closest we have been to nuclear war (discounting accidents) in decades, but also the fall of Israel.
Because one day, the prisoners of a concentration camp paraglided over a wall.
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Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
trump has been surging in the betting markets in the last 2-3 days and now looks to be ahead in most(?) of them. what's the newsmega head take on this? is it the expected fallout from the hurricane(s), the dogshit campaign kamala is running, loaded maga sickos skewing the betting markets, or rumors of a brewing october surprise?
The RCP polls are leaning in Trump's favour, so that explains the RCP betting average leaning towards Trump.
I didn't remember the 2020 polling being so garbage lol, you'd think that after 2016 they'd have improved their methodology somewhat
What makes it even more intriguing with regards to 2020, is that RCP are biased towards Republicans from what I understand. So even when being biased towards Trump, they still underestimated him.
As a non usasian, I think that at this point it's more about who can mobilize their base more than it is fighting for some imaginary independents. Kamala had some hype at the beginning, but now it's entirely artificial and on reddit. Trump is a known commodity, but at this point he's washed compared to 2016, especially since not even 2 assassination attempts can raise his ratings. I guess in the end, it's better to bet on republicans to go out and
than the democrats.
Betting markets don't know anything. They routinely get these things very wrong. It's possible Trump will win, but I wouldn't take betting markets as an indication of that.
The betting markets are consistent with with 538 forecast https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ it is foolish to totally discount the betting markets. They may not be correct, but the direction they move is probably right
Nate Bronze is out of 538 and it's been kind of shit since he left.
That’s such a small margin for Harris, lmao. She’s doing everything to lose.
Same thing I've been saying since they nominated her: she's a uniquely bad campaigner, and her numbers were never going go anywhere but down the longer the campaign runs on, so the DNC strategy would be to hide her as much as possible to attempt to run out the clock on the election before it gets too close.
Potentially also
tweeting about the markets and causing Trumpers to bet on Trump.
Bettors heard from Obama that the brothas aren't down.
It's going to be an election with low turnout, which historically benefits the Republicans.
That more people with money are betting on trump
They did bet on theranos, need i remind you.
Removed by mod
That gamblers have an addiction problem, and they are more likely to be men (and thus biased towards Trump).