Slavic Afghanistan. A sinkhole for foreign aid and CIA-front NGOs
Is modern-day taliban-controlled Afghanistan a sinkhole for foreign aid and CIA-front NGOs? I have a shallow understanding of Afghanistan and I thought that Amerikkka just said "fuck this shit" and succumbed to the graveyard of empires.
CIA still bankrolls every anti-Taliban organisation they could contact.
The Baloch Liberation Army and ISIS-K somehow grew significantly since 2022 when they started targeting Chinese workers in Afghanistan and Pakistan
They'll get some foreign aid money and will immediately be siphoned off by organizations and individuals with power coming directly from western capital.
Parts of it will just be uninhabitable for generations
The brain drain will continue and now a bunch of them will be addled by war experience with the worst being actual fascist soldiers that will probably end up doing "security" aka PMC merc shit in places like Africa
this guy will either retire and become an irritating celebrity of sorts or he becomes inconvenient for the true power and they pull the trigger on a corruption trial and put him in jailThese are my best guesses so far!
The Russian part goes to Russia and the Ukrainian part goes to BlackRock
Europe and American capital will vampire and leech it dry. Will Ukraine ever mass enough people to understand how much the US and NATO fucked it over? Don't know. There's going to be some blowback incident.
Russia will keep the territories. US and Europe will never forgive it and build weapon factories to amass new weaponry to attempt to WW3 it against Russia to again try to fracture it in 2040 to deny the after-boomers a peace dividend. 20 more years of indoctrinating the next wave of sacrifice fodder for it after all the military aged capable people are wiped damaged. RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA.
- Showis not the sort of demographic diagram you want
For further reference, life expectancy is ~64 and ~74 for men and women respectively
continuous brain drains and amazon transport hubs in the country to send treats to Russia
Thankfully, I don't think Russia will need those western treats. They're doing well enough producing their own or buying from the global majority now.
eh, I've wait and see once the war is ''over'' and the west normalize with Russia again
It's worth waiting, yeah. But the bulk of those treat markets aren't coming back :D
That really depends on what terms the war ends on, but it's not gonna be anything good.
varies greatly with whether or not the west ever ever comes to the negotiating table, which im genuinely not convinced of
I mean at some point Ukraine will just run out of soldiers and they'll have to negotiate. This kind of attritional war is hugely in Russia's favor and Ukraine has no way to win.
That said it'll be a while off. Apparently 73% of Ukrainians they're winning and that they'll go back to pre-2014 borders which would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
Yeah I think this ends with Ukraine being Russia or parts of Ukraine being a nuclear wasteland. Russia really has no limits on how far it can go except its own wishes, which at this point are mostly informed by how pissed off the Russian people are with Putin and how many measures he has to hem them in, which are a lot.
I don't think there's a realistic chance of the west taking part in a peace and normalising relations with Russia anytime soon. But eventually access to cheap Russian resources will begin to look tempting to western Europe, especially if American exploitation of Europe becomes too obvious.
I don't think any serious movement towards normalisation will happen until Putin retires or dies.
why would our ruling classes choose to end a forever war which is a huge boon to them? I dont think the average natoid has any conception of an end to this war other than total ukrainian victory
why would our ruling classes choose to end a forever war which is a huge boon to them?
Because they will eventually understand that they are facing existential threats elsewhere and they don't have the capacity to produce enough ammunition for every front.
There will never be an invasion of the US by its enemies as long as the US has nukes, so that one is ruled out.
The ruling class is indeed facing an existential threat in that the flow of global capital is being stifled as the periphery (including Europe itself) is turning away from the declining US and towards an ascending China.
Now you have thousands of pieces of military equipments that are obsolete, outdated and highly ineffective in war. How would you utilize them? You send them to Ukraine to get them blown up by Russia so your GDP can go up. Every single piece of equipment in Ukraine that is blown up translates into the US GDP going higher. The higher GDP gave the US a stronger currency which then allows it more power to extract from the Global South to entrench its control over the periphery of the empire.
So what is happening in Ukraine today is translating surplus military equipments that were overproduced during the US industrial powerhouse heyday into a fictitious GDP numbers that make the line go up.
That surplus is a deep well but it's not infinite. They have to cut it out eventually, and if your theory is correct then they'll cut the military aid to Ukraine sooner than later because it wouldn't make sense to send them the more modern equipment once all the stockpiled rusty weapons run out.
This is going to take a long time because of the way the equipments slowly trickle in, almost seem like they are deliberately taking their time.
Let’s take HIMARS for example, there are over 600 launchers built. The US had sent 16 launchers to Ukraine, and another 16 promised still slowly being delivered.
Same with M1 Abrams main battle tanks - 31 has been delivered to Ukraine, while there are several thousands left in storage in the US.
The munitions, on the other hand, do get depleted at a much faster rate, but there is no actual plan to replenish these stocks. Because unlike what many people think, America cannot win a military and industrial confrontation. A currency war is the only front where America truly has a chance, and what they’re doing now is translating outdated military and industrial capacity into financial strength.
I still think that the slow trickle of many different types of equipment is mostly about seeing what modern Russian equipment does to them. A big bloody R&D exercise.
There will never be an invasion of the US by its enemies as long as the US has nukes, so that one is ruled out.
When and if the US starts lobbing nukes (entirely possible) the reasoning behind that becomes a whole lot less, particularly for what humanity is left after the pyrrhic victory over YanKKKeestan. And if and when the US balkanizes or enters civil war- if it doesn't wind up nuking its own citizens in the process (also entirely possible) the entire world should see to it that the dreaded settler-imperialist, hegemonic ideology is rooted out in its entirety and support whatever factions might allow that.
Honestly I don't think there can ever be anything even remotely considered peace, unless the entirety of the US and the Anglosphere is de-Nazified (or rather, de-settlerized- not depopulated of whites, but having the entire ideology and even the mentality dealt with akin to the cultural revolution on steroids). Personally I live in an Anglo country as well and that's certainly my take on it, these are the countries that for the past 200~ years have been promoting every evil imaginable all across the globe (not talking about progressive things, those are the rare showings of humanity albeit often repurposed for PR instead), that have been waging war and genocide against indigeneity across the entire globe (taking up the leadership mantle of 500 years of western genocide and barbarism).
American and west European culture will have to be rebuilt and re-examined from the ground up, as the Soviets did (and with the assistance and oversight of the entire world upon the west, there should be no leeway). And American and west European state frameworks and institutions will also have to be rebuilt from the ground up, the rot is simply that deep.
This all sounds simultaneously fatalistic and idealistic- but my expectation is that the Yanks and the imperialist mentality will truly push things to their furthest point before there is any hope of changing course, that the spiral will only further continue, and for who knows how much longer, before finally they reach a breaking point. I hope not, but seeing the sheer pervasiveness and control of the neocons, of neoliberalism, and knowing firsthand how the culture of settlerism is, this is what I'd expect. And when things do reach that point (and if we all still live after, or not) whatever remains of humanity will have to ensure the settler-imperialist world system never develops again.
I'd genuinely like to be proven wrong, to see even the US/collective west with all their flaws disband NATO, ideally even start negotiating with or seek to join BRICS, and accept the end of empire with grace and get to work on resolving their own internal issues through peaceful reform if possible. Of course, we all know just how ridiculous, unprecedented, and structurally impossible any of this would be.
A lot of that ageing equipment costed a lot of tax payer money as well. So they offloaded some of that as well.
And half of them probably don’t work anymore. There have been numerous reports from the Ukrainian side that the Western equipments they received don’t work half the time.
It’s almost like they’re being sent there not to help Ukraine win the war, but to be rid of using Ukrainian lives.
Thats the thing. Ukraine's aircraft capabilities couldn't match Russia's and there was hamstring on bringing more f16 due to several factors. You get the clickbait such as ukraine developing their own cruise missiles (that has too many parts involved for me to believe out the gate) and such but things are looking rough. It was hamstrung to use long range missiles supplied by the US to targets inside Russia because of feara of Russian retaliation. They were in a tough position as it was but you can't even engage the enemy like that
What are the chances it becomes split into East and West Ukraine? A kind of reboot of history in our new modern context.
East Ukraine will just be russia. While the west becomes a neo-colony of poland/usa. Idk if Romania or Hungary also wanna take some land, possible, but are pinecones and potato’s really worth it? Annexing those lands are a drain on the resources of romania/slovakia or hungary.
If Russia takes Odessa, maybe I can see Moldova taking the Bugeac (Area between the Danube and Dniester) as some sorta compromise for letting Russia annex Transnistria
As for the Ukrainian territories in the Western side which have Romanian and Hungarian claims,that's much less likely to happen
Really? The area thats full of bulgarians? Does it have a lot of natural resources? Honestly I was thinking that hungary was going to nap the strip of land that they got in the first vienna award.
It's a mix of Romanians,Russians and Bulgarians
It's also historically part of Moldova,plus it would give it sea access and more ports to the Danube
Carpathian Ruthenia I find to be quite less likely to go to Hungary simply because I think what remains of Ukraine will be centered around Lviv and the western territories
John Mearsheimer made this prediction before the war started and considered a worse case scenario. The two Ukraines would inevitably become militarized like Germany was, only now Russia has no buffer. Cold war on a hair trigger.
Russia will set up a puppet government. zelensky will form a government in exile if the fascists or mob of angry widows don't kill him before he tries to dip. Russia will invest lots into rebuilding ukraine. The west will be pissed that the new government doesn't respect any of the sales of public assets. 10-20 years later ukraine will ask to join russia entirely.
NATO's favorite anti-Russia military base. More death. More despair.
Possible rule of Banderites.
Nothing good for Ukraine, only death.
Regime change and some punitive peace agreement that heavily favours Russia is my bet, explicitly including the Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and Luhansk/Donetsk.Maybe a few other territories with high Russian populations.
They don't have the military capacity to annex or occupy vast areas, so only areas supportive of the Russian army will be possible to hold.
It'll likely be the start of some Ukrainian struggle session too, a bit like the uprisings and struggles that tore down the central powers and Russia after WW1.
Russia might have some issues too with recovering its military strength and adapting to a civilian economy - the war may be popular but that doesn't fix the contradictions in the russian economy.
adapting to a civilian economy
They have a civilian economy. This is not total war.
They do, but the war still has impacted working people in Russia. Perhaps to their long term benefits, but it takes a lot of work to suddenly reorganise your economy around particularly large mobilisations, a massive boycott and sanctions movement, infrastructure damage, and the dead/injured.
Imagine what West Germany would have been like if they had not been forced to pretend they were sorry for being Nazis and if they had gotten IMF structural adjustment programmes instead of a Marshall plan.
A shithole country exporting crime and fascism to Europe and forgotten by the wider world, once in a while they might be in the news for doing a pogrom or something
Kiev collapses and nazi factions vie for power armed with the collosal arsenals that have been poured in from amerikkka
"....first as a tragedy...then as a farce..."
