5% or less. The two most likely outcomes I see happening are a) Biden wins big, Trump concedes and that's that or b) Biden wins big, Trump declares victory, forces a recount that then SCOTUS just declares him the winner and Biden goes "OK."
b) Biden wins big, Trump declares victory, forces a recount that then SCOTUS just declares him the winner and Biden goes “OK.”
this depends on the urban bourgeoisie just kind of going along with that (it's not really Biden's call) and I don't have a great read on how ready they are to accept a second Trump term in a clearly stolen election. they've clearly floated the idea of involving the military in a situation like that and are talking to each other about it, so who the fuck knows.
really, whether this happens or not comes down to what the land/energy bourgeoisie are up to and whether they've made peace with Biden or not. Trump will need their support in order to secure the SCOTUS vote and it's possible they've cut a deal to make peace with a Biden victory? or at least, that's my theory on why the democrats suddenly flipped on fracking overnight (bailout promise for the very underwater energy sector).
Actually made a post about exactly this in the morning. The urban bourgeoisie will go along with Trump so long as his supporters make a big enough ruckus to make doing business harder. As Marx writes, 'The bourgeois madly snorts at his parliamentary republic: “Rather an end with terror than terror without end!”'
If Dems involve the military they know they're setting up the right for permanent violence for decades. They will never ever let it go. I don't think they'll do it, I think they'll accept it because the outcome is really not great anyway even if they coup him. It will create so many more reactionaries and they'll be way more willing to organise than before. The military members that disagree with it will start organising too.
Basically if they coup Trump you're guaranteeing a civil war down the line, whereas if you don't coup Trump you can still avoid it. I think they won't involve the military for that reason.
5% or less. The two most likely outcomes I see happening are a) Biden wins big, Trump concedes and that's that or b) Biden wins big, Trump declares victory, forces a recount that then SCOTUS just declares him the winner and Biden goes "OK."
You missed the scenario where Biden wins big, Trump declares victory, and Juan Guaido declares himself interim president.
this depends on the urban bourgeoisie just kind of going along with that (it's not really Biden's call) and I don't have a great read on how ready they are to accept a second Trump term in a clearly stolen election. they've clearly floated the idea of involving the military in a situation like that and are talking to each other about it, so who the fuck knows.
really, whether this happens or not comes down to what the land/energy bourgeoisie are up to and whether they've made peace with Biden or not. Trump will need their support in order to secure the SCOTUS vote and it's possible they've cut a deal to make peace with a Biden victory? or at least, that's my theory on why the democrats suddenly flipped on fracking overnight (bailout promise for the very underwater energy sector).
Actually made a post about exactly this in the morning. The urban bourgeoisie will go along with Trump so long as his supporters make a big enough ruckus to make doing business harder. As Marx writes, 'The bourgeois madly snorts at his parliamentary republic: “Rather an end with terror than terror without end!”'
If Dems involve the military they know they're setting up the right for permanent violence for decades. They will never ever let it go. I don't think they'll do it, I think they'll accept it because the outcome is really not great anyway even if they coup him. It will create so many more reactionaries and they'll be way more willing to organise than before. The military members that disagree with it will start organising too.
Basically if they coup Trump you're guaranteeing a civil war down the line, whereas if you don't coup Trump you can still avoid it. I think they won't involve the military for that reason.