if not since 9/11 then since Reagan, which shows how long it has taken.
Reagan did shit that was easily reversible but never got reversed
W committed us to multiple wars costing trillions of dollars and making us even more enemies than we already had
they both wrecked the economy and country in their own special way.
Clearly defined shift in foreign policy that also began hollowing out our economy in earnest, very easy to point to as a tipping point
but those $600 in bush bucks was nice, just had to let them loot everything else
That's not a bad date to pin it at. Reminds me of how there's multiple dates that historians place the end of the Roman Empire at
I'm not a doomer but the US it outlasting us. The Russian empire had almost a century of peasant rebellions before the USSR. China had longer. We're not even close.
To be fair technology (particularly communications technology) is far more advanced and people are way more urbanized
Yup, those are factors that make it harder. A society that is not used to rebellion isn't going to do a big one like that. Not without smaller ones preceding it, normalizing it. I don't know how we get there. Maybe summer of 2020 was a step to it. Maybe Rodney King was an earlier step.
Maybe summer of 2020 was a step to it
Not without members of it becoming the organisers of followups.
As much as it was an incoherent fuster cluck, Jan 6 was maybe one of those dates too. The difference being that once they caught the car they didn't know what to do because they don't have any coherent political project or goals. Pretty sure that isn't going to change anytime soon either, the types of chuds that are organizing and training are just doing so to murder minorities, not design new systems of power. Never the less, it's another symptom of people feeling the squeeze of conditions... and the chuds are restless.
This is leftist cope pretty much.
Some people say China will collapse imminently.
USA is strong in many ways.
Idk a lot of it is living here and looking around going “This can’t possibly continue like this indefinitely, right?”
Don't worry, things can and will get much, much, much worse. Most Americans have a roof over their heads, plenty of corn syrup to fill their bellies and enough treats to keep themselves occupied. The US is definitely declining, but an outright collapse is still very far away.
Mate, look at countries with way worse conditions than the US, like Haiti, yet shit has been continuing indefinitely
I do keep thinking about cost of living, there has to be some pressure release right? Some relief?
They're going to keep using culture war bullshit as the president release for as long as possible. People who angry about trans athletes or critical race theory or judeo-bolchevism are not going too inconvenience their rulers.
USA is in hyper late stage capitalism. It is anything, but strong
Is your movement recruiting and training over 60,000 fighting men per year? https://recruiting.army.mil/pao/facts_figures/
Does your movement control the international monetary system?
Does your movement tap the internet backbone?
I mean, a strong army is one thing, but they keep losing wars for one. Also like... you gotta feed that army.
The US produces gargantuan amounts of food. It's a massive net exporter. The idea that it would be unable to feed its army is ridiculous. It's the most agriculturally productive state in human history.
We are going through an environmental collapse. Food is not going to be easy very soon
The US can grow water intensive crops in the middle of the driest and hottest desert on earth. It has access to incredible amounts of fresh water, far more land than its population needs to be supported, and the most advanced agricultural technology.
Just saying "environmental collapse" doesn't predict anything about the US's ability to grow food and what you're suggesting would need to be like a 50-75% drop in production. A mistake being made by some people in this thread is the idea that everything in the US is broken. But the US can economically dominant the world for a reason: it is a gargantuan economic and industrial powerhouse with a huge variety and quantity of natural resources and a massive population. None of that is going away. Hegemony will fade because it's a political disaster and China has all those same advantages with far better management, but the US isn't going to disappear any time soon.
If it were just as simple as growing food in a desert it would be fine, but the circumstances that allow us to do that are fragile and will be impacted by a lot of shit failing, not just one or two things that can be fixed by technology. The US can grow things in the desert now because it has the rest of the country's fertile resources to do so. It doesn't matter what technology the US has. It isn't just a matter of replacing bees with drones or installing irrigation. The soil will be dead. The water will become anaerobic. The types of plants we can grow will dwindle, and resulting monoculture will cause even more problems. It will be insanely expensive to do. Keep in mind that this is a country that relies on capitalism to survive, the only reason it can keep going is because there are resources that are easy to exploit. What's going to happen to businesses that can't get their cheap corn syrup anymore? While this is going on people will be starving, and more pandemics will be occurring, meaning the workforce needed to power this huge endeavor will be strained to its breaking point.
I think that the climate crisis has been so diluted by the media that people don't realize just how bad an ecological collapse is. I haven't even listed all the details because there would be too much for me to go through and I suck and writing. Either way, look at the Permian great dying and ask yourself if we can survive that as a species, let alone a country.
The way the US handled COVID-19 should give you an idea of how unprepared they are.
My brother in Christ, I study this stuff for a living. It will definitely be that bad and claiming it isn't is climate denialism.
That won't change. Do you think the Great Lakes will dry up?
They don't have to, the water chemistry will fuck up as the life that can't cope with the temperature change dies off. This will cause the lake ecology to crash the water will be stagnant and need constant treatment, among other things.
It's wild bees that are at risk, not agricultural ones.
Oh that's okay then, a huge chunk of the native ecosystem dying never leads to an unstable environment.
Not only that but this simply isn't true. Honey bees are currently very weak as a species from pesticides, diseases, and malnutrition caused from monoculture farming.
What does this even mean? It will be lower biodiversity but worms aren't going anywhere.
Dude, if you don't know anything about soil health why are you speaking so confidently about it? You know, the nitrogen cycle? The biome of the soil? All the stuff plants require to survive etc?
And yes, the biodiversity of worms is going somewhere. Again, do you know anything about the subject you're lecturing me about yourself?
Ocean oxygen levels dropping is bad but the water won't be anaerobic and also what does this have to do with farming
Yes, it will that's literally what it means. And what do you mean what does clean water with a stable PH have to do with farming?!
I think that humanity could quite obviously survive the great dying. Do you not think humans are in the top 30% of adaptable species on earth?
We could quite obviously survive the worst extnction event in Earths history? The one that almost wiped out all life? The one that took the ecosystem millions of years to recover from? That great dying?
Also, we have only been here for a blink of an eye as far as the lifetime of the planet goes, and we are adaptable to this environment, not a dead planet. There are plenty of adaptable animals that were once numerous that don't exist anymore.
You haven't listed any details because you aren't relying on a scientific understanding of the situation.
I haven't been saying anything that conflicts with the our current scientific consensus as far as what I've been taught by ecologists.
You can't just scream "ecological collapse" and then go on to discuss the worst possible things you can imagine without any actual evidence.
Your lack of understanding isn't a lack of evidence. You are welcome to read some journals and fact-check me if you want.
We're looking at a 2-3 degree increase in global temperatures. That won't shut down the biosphere even if every bit of permanent ice melts; the Cretaceous was 10+ hotter and for most of the history of multicellular life there hasn't been permanent ice anywhere on the planet.
Hey, yeah, cool. The Cretaceous. Remind me how many humans were around then.
Oh yeah, nothing bad happened when the environment of the Cretaceous changed. Not like a ton of shit went extinct or anything.
Also, it's projected to be a 4-5°C increase. Which again, would make it on the scale of the great dying.
So yeah even if we survive as a species, we'll wish we were dead.
The US let a million of its people die but nothing touched agricultural production because that's the shit the US is prepared to keep functional at all costs.
The US can't even build a shuttle that doesn't leak piss, no matter how much money they throw at it. I don't trust them to do dick.
When things collapse they collapse slowly, then all at once. The major problem for the U.S. hegemonically is that almost all of our manufacturing input (including the MIC) comes from Chinese manufacturing. If that is disrupted we will immediately come into a late-Soviet economic crisis of 'lots of money with nothing to buy'. Almost all of our bolts, nuts, and industrial hardware comes from China, and there are no stockpiles of this stuff as it is all supply-chain managed to be immediate input-output to reduce costs. Good luck keeping your machines running if you don't have the hardware to keep up the maintenance.
If we don't fuck up our relationship with China, this whole thing can go on for decades before eventual ecological collapse, but if the blob actually decides to commit to an active conflict with China our goose will be cooked incredibly quickly, within a decade, because we do not have the labor inputs to replace that Chinese manufacturing power, and it is because there are zero engineers in the upper echelons of the corporate or political spheres (because we specifically enculturate them to be apolitically ambient right-wing) that this is even approaching a real possibility.
The major problem for the U.S. hegemonically is that almost all of our manufacturing input (including the MIC) comes from Chinese manufacturing... Almost all of our bolts, nuts, and industrial hardware comes from China.
I'm discussing this in a parallel chain right now, but this is overstating things a lot. The US makes a lot of industrial equipment domestically, from nuts and bolts to advanced engines. I tour these metal doohickey plants all the time - places pumping out everything from doorknobs and hammers to jet engine casings and extremely high precision valve systems. I live in a city that's thought of as a former industrial powerhouse, but the reality is it's still one of the premier manufacturing cities in the country - there's just far fewer workers involved. Much more light industry than heavy industry has been outsourced. It's especially overstated for MIC, which does almost all of its manufacturing, top to bottom, domestically. That's part of the reason for its political invulnerability - there's fifty factories pumping out parts for aircraft carriers and bombers in your district, Congressman.
Now, the US absolutely is dependent on China's manufacturing, and that need is most severe in some specific industries and supply chains. If that were cut off today, it would be a disaster economically, but not in our ability to build machines. It would be in our ability to provide clothes, toys, entertainment products, computers, etc - consumer goods. We'd keep pumping out fighter jets and cars and drilling equipment no problem (except for advanced smartboards! oops!). Under smart management (not happening) the US would be mandating onshoring light industry through enormous state investment.
In the industry I work in, which caters to heavy machinery, almost all of our peripheral shit comes from China, they had to scramble when COVID hit to get parts in and were panicking because they lost a significant (5%) of market share due to these shortages, there was no slack that could have been picked up by domestic input. The only reason they didn't lose more was because the competition fumbled the bag even harder than we did and we managed to buy out parts of their systems to compensate as they went under, but now it's pretty much a monopoly market.
I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm saying that that expanding capacity is a long-term project that I am not even sure is possible if the U.S. isn't willing to invest heavily into the education to do so (which it is not because financial, tech, entertainment and cultural production are easier and more profitable). The U.S. is an industrial powerhouse, but so much of that production relies on those cheap peripherals from China, not even cheap consumer goods, but things like lens, masks, suits, clothes, wrenches, etc. The heavy industry will not survive, and will rapidly monopolize (more than it already has) without those inputs.
However I agree that the real collapse won't happen until something occurs with the MIC or the 10-11 equity firms that finance pretty much everything in the U.S. This thing is built to last, and grind up everything and everyone around it before it is stopped.
In the industry I work in, which caters to heavy machinery, almost all of our peripheral shit comes from China, they had to scramble when COVID hit to get parts in and were panicking because they lost a significant (5%) of market share due to these shortages, there was no slack that could have been picked up by domestic input. The only reason they didn't lose more was because the competition fumbled the bag even harder than we did and we managed to buy out parts of their systems to compensate as they went under, but now it's pretty much a monopoly market.
What industry? I'm curious which ones have that supply chain and which don't. My city is a major aerospace manufacturing center and almost all levels of production besides final assembly and computer parts happen here.
I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm saying that that expanding capacity is a long-term project that I am not even sure is possible if the U.S. isn't willing to invest heavily into the education to do so (which it is not because financial, tech, entertainment and cultural production are easier and more profitable). The U.S. is an industrial powerhouse, but so much of that production relies on those cheap peripherals from China, not even cheap consumer goods, but things like lens, masks, suits, clothes, wrenches, etc. The heavy industry will not survive, and will rapidly monopolize (more than it already has) without those inputs.
It's a good point that peripheral stuff that isn't really thought of as in the supply chain is totally dependent on China. Safety gear is a great example. And yeah, like I said, the US isn't going to get the smart governance to reindustrialize much more of its supply chain even though the capacity exists to do so fairly quickly.
I make no predictions about internal collapse of the US, I just take satisfaction in the empire's ongoing crumbling.
I work in the automotive industry, though not on tractors, trucks or cars themselves, in general on the necessary (but not essential) accessory components to them. It wouldn't surprise me if the mainline auto and aerospace industries are mostly domestically sourced at this point, but the main life-blood of manufacturing outside of those large cities runs off of those peripheral inputs from China (because they can't compete with the large domestic needs of those mainline industries). While places like Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle, Buffalo, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and other industrial hubs would probably be fine in the event of a major war with China, all the mid-size cities (less than 100,000) would see what is left of their industry completely decimated and their labor eaten by the big cities, which would only exacerbate the problems that those cities have, as people who generally chose not to migrate to large cities are suddenly forced to compete in those labor markets in order to retain a job in their field. It may not seem like a big deal, but imagine if every single midsize city suddenly lost the monetary input of their top 15-10% earners. It would be completely devastating to the local economy on all levels. If an unprecedented collapse happens, it will occur in these less managed parts of the country, and those consequences will radiate out towards the population centers at an escalating rate that the statisticians can't predict because there hasn't been enough data collected to manage properly.
That said, it really depends on if Washington is actually serious about fucking with China, or are just playing it up for domestic politics points or trying to scare businesses into lessening their supply chain commitment to China so that they can eventually commit to a conflict. People are definitely hearing the warning signs around here, but there is no real way to de-couple from them, as there are very few domestic inputs that are as cost-effective or well-established as the Chinese ones at this point in time. Every year, the supply chain guys try to figure out a solution, but it is trying to square a circle, as any supply we don't pick up is supply that the competition can pick up and potentially contest for market share. The very logic of capitalist expansion and development prevents them from orienting themselves in a way that protects them from actions of the State Department. All I can say is that the next couple decades will continue to be interesting, whether or not anything actually significant occurs.
Edit: I need to practice being more specific. When I say 'heavy industry won't survive' what I mean is 'the product diversification of heavy industry won't survive'. Basically, we will see a completely unrecognizable market landscape the consequences of we can scarcely imagine.
No problem, it is always interesting to hear what is going on in the actual core of the imperial core and not what is fraying around the periphery of the mid-country.
When things collapse they collapse slowly, then all at once.
treadonme gets it
Another thing we don’t really produce or stockpile is the necessary components for our electrical grid. In the last few years there have been several weather events that if they had gone very slightly differently would’ve meant large parts of the country without electricity for months.
Is America an industrial powerhouse? The impression I get is that America has deindustrialized and outsourced everything and is now heavily dependent on international supply chains.
Only China has a larger industrial capacity than the US. The difference varies year by year, but on average the US is making somewhere around 2/3 to 3/4 of what China does in dollar value. The US is not the global heart of industry that it once was, but it still produces huge amounts of raw materials, processed materials, and advanced technology. Same sort of ratio holds for all net exports, where the US is only second to China (but they are exporting very different stuff).
Good breakdown of what the US is producing, exporting, and importing: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa/
We as Marxists should not delude ourselves into thinking the US has nothing happening economically. Most people are just excluded from it.
Thanks for the link!
*interesting stuff:
The top exports of United States are Refined Petroleum ($83.3B), Petroleum Gas ($70.9B), Crude Petroleum ($67.6B), Cars ($55.4B), and Integrated Circuits ($51.3B), exporting mostly to Canada ($259B), Mexico ($247B), China ($151B), Japan ($71.8B), and South Korea ($66.4B). In 2021, United States was the world's biggest exporter of Refined Petroleum ($83.3B), Petroleum Gas ($70.9B), Medical Instruments ($30.2B), Gas Turbines ($30B), and Corn ($18.8B)
The top imports of United States are Cars ($139B), Crude Petroleum ($120B), Computers ($102B), Broadcasting Equipment ($101B), and Packaged Medicaments ($86.3B), importing mostly from China ($530B), Mexico ($361B), Canada ($355B), Germany ($135B), and Japan ($128B). In 2021, United States was the world's biggest importer of Cars ($139B), Computers ($102B), Broadcasting Equipment ($101B), Packaged Medicaments ($86.3B), and Motor vehicles; parts and accessories (8701 to 8705) ($77.7B)
Show
It's interesting how much overlap there is in top exports and imports.
Your comment wounds like a history channel documentary from the 90s
Not saying u r right or wrong. Just like, you gave me nostalgia. Thanks man!
"Your movement"
Link to burger army recruitment page
LOL fuck off spook
My movement? What are you talking about? What movement are you talking about?
hyper late stage capitalism
It's actually in disco neofeudialism and will therefore last a few hundred years more before Brasil becomes a hegemonic power, read theory
I would be absolutely shocked if there are scraps of semi modern civilization left at the end of this century due to the impending horrors of climate change. We’re well into the sixth mass extinction, a few hundred years left for anything we can currently recognize is overly optimistic.
There will be droughts some places and floodings some others. The imperial core will repel refugees from those places. There is no shared human destiny in some climate apocalypse
I do agree that some form of eco-fascism as a xenophobic response to worsening quality of life is likely unavoidable.
I don't think the "US will collapse any day now" in the way anti China propaganda uses the term collapse. But the US is in the midst of its collapse. Decline is a better word to grasp the pace that this is occuring at but i think collapse is the appropriate word for what is happening.
That's fair.
It was the unipolar hegemon, and now it's still the biggest power overall, but there are other players. And African nations etc. have a choice of who to affiliate with; the US-led West isn't the only option.
Yeah, its the still biggest and the most dangerous power.
The NSA stuff is crazy how much power it grants them.
The amount of information they can get on any chosen victim within seconds, they can know everything about you. And then they can use that to ruin your life.
You posted a question in askchapo, where comrades invite answers to their questions.... I am sorry if my answer made you upset.
Who told you to come post here?
We don't always require an invitation to come in; that's a common misconception about us.
3 - 10 years
I say this because climate change and the Holocene extinction are going to be a lot worse than people realize. There is going to be more disease, more fire. Capitalism's rabid growth and consumption has started hell on earth. That's not cope, I don't actually want it to happen that way because it's not just the US that will collapse, it's all of us, humans, animals, plants. That's my opinion as a training ecologist. It is so much worse than what they're telling you.
This isn't just about economics or war anymore. There are different forces at play than with other falling empires.
I mean, give or take a few years. It's a guess, a GUESS
I will quote you as Marxist who foresaw the USA being nothing but a swamp of piss one can wade through within our lifetime.
Defining collapse, to me this means US balkanization.
IMO it will happen when the US gets a few large scale climate related disasters like the Texas snowstorm etc but over a dozen(more than 1 a month) going on continuously for about 3-5 years would be enough to destroy the country.
I believe it is a certainty because the US government is not capable of mobilizing resources to deal with these disasters, at the end of the day the capitalist class will not allow it. This already happens anyway, Puerto Rico got fucked and Trump withheld resources, nothing was done anyway. You'll be told to leave or flee or get fucked. Everyone will cheer when Florida goes underwater but will they deal with the consequences of mass migration etc? You can expect headlines like this in the future Trump complains to senators that Puerto Rico is getting too much hurricane relief funding If this isn't a sign of collapse than what is it? The "richest" nation in the world counting pennies for disaster relief while e.g giving unlimited no questions asked funding for the military.
Anyway as for the timeline, well climate change is showing signs of nothing except getting worse, nothing is being done and nothing will be done until it is too late, you can look into solar reflection is the goto example, I am all but convinced the US will do it unilaterally and fuck up everything because literaly better to gamble the fate of the world than to talk about changing capitalism, degrowth etc.
So if you want a date? It is hard to say, we are on the very pessimistic path, you can look at all the depressing headlines if you want confirmation, everything is always "faster than expected" or "scientists shocked" etc even accounting for the usual MSM sensationalism this message is even stronger among the academic circles, before 2050 is already quite likely, but almost certainly "collapse" will happen before 2080.
Climate change dictates this will happen and to argue against it like saying its "cope" and whatnot would be saying that a country going through multiple disasters and mass migrations has not collapsed yet because technically there are still 50 states and some geriatric dipshit 80 year in sitting on a table somewhere being called a "president".
Long enough to outlast your youth and the best years of your life, if you still are in the prime of it.
At least one more century just going off of historical examples, the most recent one being the British Empire/UK
probably before i would be able to get money out of a retirement account
This reminds me of how there's multiple dates that historians place the end of the Roman Empire at and all say something slightly different. The date picked creates a certain interpretation for the end of the empire. For example, some often use the moving of the capital to Constantinople under Constantine (i think like 310-ish AD) as the end of the Empire in the sense of a cohesive entity centered in Rome as we think of it. The Western Empire still existed for 100+ years and the Eastern Empire for like a 1,000 years after that. I think that paints an interesting picture of what decline looks like on that scale.
Timeframes in the modern era are sped up for a lot of reasons (communications tech, and climate change mostly) but its really hard to put a timeline on something like decline and collapse, even in history, let alone when trying to predict future
In a lot of ways, i feel that what American Balkanization is going to look like has already occured to a significant degree. The Federal government took little real action or responsibility during COVID, and is choosing inaction as a minority party overturns abortion rights ceding more power to states. They're also inactive while wild slates of anti-trans laws get passed in the most reactionary states and their extreme abortion restrictions. The Federal government's policy is basically "your on your own
citizensconsumers." I think that process will continue, but i think it looks more like this than states breaking away and forming new countries. I think the federal government will continue to be a middle man for collecting and dispersing tax dollars and running the military to keep the war economies going and facilitate imperialism. When the US can no longer do the later
we'll be deep in collapse. Hard to imagine when it will be, or what that will look likeSomething i noticed in Texas thst i think highlights another aspect of this process. The US has a rural urban divide in political affiliation. In Texas the Republican stare government has been trying to extert more power over the major city governments that are run by democrats. They withheld Federal disaster relief money from Harris County (Houston) after Hurricane Harvey and recently took over Houston's school district. No federal intervention on these overstepping of powers.
I’m not sure how useful parallels with Roma are
I agree, i think in general people make too much out of percieved historical parallels. Thie point i was trying to make was more about how difficult it is the create a timeline of decline and/or collapse even in history, where we already know what happened, let alone when trying to predict the future.
I don’t really see the US state collapsing
I agree with this in the sense that i don't think the Balkanization will take place in the US in the way its traditionally concieved of, with US states breaking off and forming their own countries. In a sense the state would still be intact - collecting taxes, dispensing money to the states, and operating the military. But i do think tge federal gov has shown a trend of doing nothing on what should be national problems (pandemics, environmental disasters) and i think that will continue.
Without UBI or some kind of concessions to the working class, the state probably will collapse,
I'm not as optimistic about concessions generally, but i could see what you're talking about, and if anything remotely approaching a concession happens it would probably be the kind of UBI you're talking about. It feels less like an outright concession than a necessity to make the kind if society where "you will own nothing and like it" work the way the ruling class want it to, but thats probably me splitting hairs over the term concession.
The other possibility is outright fascism, although I think the demographics of the US make a fascism based in white supremacy or Christianity basically impossible now.
I hope you're right about that. I think we could see some states have christo-fascist governments in the kind of soft Balkanization i think is most likely. Minority rule in the US is the norm, not the exception, and there have been conscious moves on the stare level for over a decade to strengthen minority rule byvthe right in every state with a Republican government. The repeal of the protections imposed on firmer Confederate states by the Voting Rights Act by the Sumpreme Court opened the floddgates after they were already pushing legislation to promote minority rule.
Like i said I'm not as optimistic about concessions happening at this point in the US, and i think that a lack of that, plus the ruling class's insistence on confrontations with China and Russia say a lot for the possiblity of seeing fascism rather than concessions.
It's really hard to predict. It will probably he slower, more boring, and far worse than whatever our best preductions could possibly be.
Gotta define collapse.
The domestic system of governance? Already collapsing.
The ability of the state to project military power? A decade or two for most of the world, an extra decade for South America.
A formal entity called the United States with structure derived from its constitution? Could be a thousand years.
A formal entity called the United States with structure derived from its constitution? Could be a thousand years.
My pet theory is that the US will eventually go the way of the HRE. Just like there was an emperor, there's going to be a president in Washington DC for centuries to come. He's going to be a very important person who'll have soldiers in fancy uniforms saluting him, but the centre of real political power will have moved somewhere else.
If collapse is defined as swathes of the country either being abandoned or placed under indefinite martial law and if current trends in terms of housing, education, health, wages, pollution, infrastructure and climate change continue
Then around 20-25 years, 10-15 years if the worse case scenarios for climate change become reality
if the worse case scenarios for climate change become reality
essentially guaranteed at this point
However many days I have left to live +1 more day. Because that’s how much the universe hates me.
Going based on pure vibes and ass-pulling:
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Irreversible decline: We are here.
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"The sick man of [continent]": By 2050s.
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Losing most imperial possessions: A few decades after "The sick man of [continent]"
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Minor Balkinization (secessionist movements): ~2070s
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Major Balkinization (rump state surrounded by successor republics): 2100-2110s
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Formal end of these United States of America: The rump state could easily truck along for centuries, especially if one of the successor republics manages to conquer the rump state and retroactively claims itself as a continuation of the rump state.
My vibes-based analysis is unable to incorporate climate change into its analysis, but climate change will obviously speed up the timeline.
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