If you’re talking about US/NATO military hegemony

I am talking, of course, about US imperialism, and which it will continue to arm and support fascist paramilitary to brutally slaughter leftists across the world, as it has done so many times over the past century. The only way to end this is to end US imperialism.

What you’re describing doesn’t sound like a peace deal, that sounds like NATO victory and then some

This war doesn’t end until either NATO is demilitarized, or Russia is demilitarized. There is no off-ramp from here, a ceasefire will only come when either of the two conditions occur, as trust is already permanently broken:

First, the US refusing Ukraine to negotiate for a ceasefire back in March 2022 made it very clear that they have no intention of suing for peace. There is a reason why Russia transitioned into an attrition war in May 2022 (what they call “Phase 2”), and it is precisely because they have correctly read the responses from the other side. If Russia loses, that means it has economically collapsed, and the chaos as a failed state that ensued.

Second, the Minsk agreements were the ceasefire period, during which Ukraine was re-armed and trained by NATO, and its military is being used against Russia today. This is why there is no longer a solution where the situation goes back to status quo. NATO will just continue to re-arm Ukraine, or worse, give them nuclear weapons as was in Zelensky’s provocative statement in January 2022 anyway. The only way for this to end is the demilitarization of NATO, or if Russia collapses.

If you’re going to appeal to theory, then cite the relevant theory.

I’d start with Lenin’s The Proletariat and the War.

Hard disagree. I cannot imagine a scenario where left wing movements can survive better if NATO/US imperialism wins in the region. Russia would end up like Ukraine with a fascist takeover.

The conservative, nationalist liberal government gained traction because US imperialism has destroyed all left wing oppositions in the region. The communists won the 1995 election until they were couped by the US. The same story happens everywhere, from Iran to Afghanistan to Indonesia to Chile to Nicaragua.

And we’re not just talking about military coups. Have you ever wondered why so few socialist governments survive and how almost none of them had succeeded in their reforms? Because the US monetary imperialism has constructed such vast global financial institutions that ensured that no Global South country can possibly pay off their dollar debt, and thus forcing them to institute austerity, privatization of public assets upon coming to power in order to sustain their economic activity without going broke.

Michael Hudson described one mechanics of US monetary imperialism here:

Among the BRICS+ countries, Argentina is a case in point. Its foreign dollar debt has grown largely by IMF sponsorship. The IMF’s main political function in US foreign policy has been to enable pro-American client oligarchies to move their money out of countries whenever there is a chance of a left-wing or simply democratic reformer being elected. Convert their Argentinean currency into dollars lowers the peso’s exchange rate. Without IMF intervention, that would mean that as the exchange rate falls, the wealthy classes engaging in capital flight receive fewer and fewer dollars. To support the currency – and hence, the hard-currency dollars that capital-flight actors receive – the IMF lends the right-wing government dollars to buy up the excess pesos that the client oligarchy is selling off. That enables Argentineans to move their money out of the country to obtain a much higher amount of US dollars than they would if the IMF were not lending money to the right-wing puppet government.

When the new reform government comes in, it finds itself loaded down with a huge foreign debt owed to the IMF. This debt has not been taken on in a way that helped Argentina develop its economy and earn dollars to pay back the loan. It is simply a result of IMF support of right-wing governments. And the IMF then tells the new government (whether Argentina or any other debtor) to pay off its foreign loans by lowering the wages of labor. That is the only way that the IMF recognizes for countries to “stabilize” their balance of payments. So the reform government is obliged to behave just like a right-wing government, intensifying the class war of capital against labor. The “cure” for their balance-of-payments deficits thus becomes even worse than the original disease, that is, its rentier oligarchy moving their money out of the country.

Only by ridding the influence of Western imperialism in the Global South can left wing movements begin to flourish. The principal contradiction in the Global South today is not the national bourgeois-proletariat struggle, but an anti-imperialist struggle. Only after resolving the principal contradiction can we actually stand a chance to fight against the national bourgeoisie.

Yeah, I've got an iron front patch on my jacket, not because I'm anti-communist, but because it's a way to signal my leftism and anti fascism to others, without attracting the attention of chuds who will be more likely to recognize an antifa flags patch.