Quite a long read but this explains the official theoretical stance of the left wing of the CPC if you want the most hopium timeline

POLITICAL TRENDS

According to Xi Jinping and the current party consensus, there are four broad political trends in China today:

1. "Ultra-left", which upholds the Mao era and Mao Zedong Thought but rejects the Deng Xiaoping era and the theoredical framework of Socialism with Chinese characteristics. This position must be "profoundly re-examined".

2. "Left", which upholds both the Mao and Deng eras, Mao Zedong Thought and SWCC. This position must be "strongly promoted".

3. "Right", which rejects Mao and Mao Zedong Thought but upholds Deng Xiaoping and SWCC. This position must also be "profoundly re-examined".

4. "Ultra-right", which rejects both the Mao and Deng eras, Mao Zedong Thought and SWCC. This position must be "firmly opposed".

Both Mao and Deng comitted leftist and rightist errors respectively. However, their overall contribution to Chinese socialism is immense and should be embraced. In line with this reality, critical tolerance must given to the Ultra-Leftist and the Rightist positions described above. But Ultra-Righists, seeking to "change allegiance" (capitalist restoration) are completely unnaceptable.

This position has been put into practice in party schools, common education, and party discipline. An example of this can be seen in the testimony of expelled former liberal-minded party members in this article of the Sydney Morning Herald:

Someone always loses in any political upheaval. In the rise of Xi, it’s the second-generation elite such as Cai and their families who have been either forced into silence, hiding or exile, leaving Xi unchallenged at the top of the CCP pyramid.

“These are people who have gone to Harvard or Yale, who speak excellent English, and they don’t like Xi.”

He says the combination of the Party as an ideological commitment and as a vehicle for professional promotion had left this group of potential Chinese leaders sidelined.

“These people are seeing their purpose torn up,” he says. “Xi Jinping doesn’t like that group of members, he likes true believers because he’s a true believer."

Essentially, Xi Jinping has focused on eliminating previously widespread graft and corruption as well as completely dismantling CIA networks within the party and state. He has also taken it upon himself to cleanse the party of liberalism, resumé hunters, historical nihilism towards party history, and western idolization; all of which were unfortunate conditions that developed during the Deng era, methastisyzing during the Jiang Zemin (and his Shanghai Clique), Hu Jintao administrations.

Nevertheless, in 2017 at the 19th CPC Congress, a third era in Chinese socialism was declared in accordance with the "Left" position presented above. The primary goals of this era are to assert party authority within the economy in order to carry out the technological, social, cultural and economic tasks necessary to completely lift China from a middle-income low complexity manufacturing export-dependent economy to a high-income, innovative and self-reliant/autarkik economy during the 2021-2035 period. In other words, China wants to be more like Germany or Japan with their large high-quality, high-tech and high-complexity manufacturing output instead of deindustrializing, financializing and outsourcing like the United States and Britain.

With China likely reaching the human development and gdp per capita levels of some southern european countries by 2035, and very possibly matching western/northern european countries in those terms by 2049, it has been said that China will have thus completed the Primary Stage of Socialism and will ascend to the intermediate stage by 2049:

From the primary stage of socialism to the intermediate, and then the advanced stage, China is following a development process of constant evolution and constant strengthening. Currently in the “second half” of the primary stage of socialism, China has already developed important economic features that are usually found in an advanced economic entity, for example, innovation-driven growth, post-industrialization, green manufacturing and green energy; while also facing the challenges of an aging population and sub-replacement fertility. Furthermore, it has achieved modernization of the service industry, and informatization and digitization. These features reflect a situation in which development factors are becoming increasingly dominant, as underdevelopment factors decline.

as well as:

It now appears that we will achieve our goal to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2021, the year the Communist Party of China celebrates its centenary. By the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the PRC [2049], we will have achieved our goal of building China into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful. After 2050, China will enter the intermediate stage of socialist development. The development theme will change from “common prosperity” to “common development,” with two main historical missions: (1) to turn China into a highly developed great modern socialist country (i.e. the third centenary goal) by 2078, the centenary of China’s reform and opening up; and (2) to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by the end of the century. China’s third centenary goal can be described as a shift from “achieving common development” to “becoming highly developed.” The overarching objective is to build China into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful in all respects, so as to lay a solid foundation with higher standards to enable the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

STAGES OF SOCIALISM

The best way to summarize the stages according to the current theoredical line of the left/Xi wing of the CPC as analysed interpretation of Professor Cheng Enfu (academician at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Director of the Research Center for Economic and Social Development (CASS), principal professor at the University of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, President of the World Association for Political Economy, president of Chinese Society of Foreign Economic Theories, and member of the People’s Congress of China.)

0th Stage or Socialist Construction Period

• Founding of the PRC (1949) to the end of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and the Boluan Fanzheng period (1977)
• Bloc of Four Classes, New Democracy
• People's Democratic Dictatorship with Proletarian Leadership
• Basic institutions of the PRC built
• Basic Industrialization, urbanization, and infrastructure development
• Eradication of severe deprivation, doubling of life expetancy and other achievements
• Officially, this period is part of the primary stage but it's generally talked about as being a separate era.

Primary Stage of Socialism

• Beginning of Reform and Opening Up (1978) until the 100th year of the founding of the PRC (2049) Split into two sub-stages

1.1978-2020 (Moderately Prosperous Society, eradication of absolute poverty)

2.2021-2049 (Modern Prosperity, eradication of relative poverty and underdevelopment)

• Socialist Market Economy
• Public Ownership in various forms primary; private ownership secondary.
• Market-based distribution according to labor primary; according to capital secondary.
• State-dominated Market Economy

Intermediate Stage of Socialism

100th year anniversary of the PRC until the 'end of the century'.

• Split into two-sub-stages

1.2050-2078 (Highly Developed, centenary of Reform and Opening Up)

2.2079-2100* (Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation by the 'end of the century')

• Socialist Market Economy 2.0 (no official name yet)
• Multiple forms of social ownership (state, coop, joint-stock); no private ownership
• Multiple types of commodity distribution according to labor (similar to Stalin's elaboration)
• State-dominated planned economy with secondary market adjustments
• Although theorists have suggested leaping over the 'intermediate' stage and instead having a longer 'advanced stage' (theoredical developments are only set in stone once they have been voted on and approved in congresses and/or added to the party constitution)

Advanced/Final Stage of Socialism before Communism

2100*-???

• No official speculation about the exact year but before the end of this century
• Fully Socialist Economy
• Single Public Ownership by entire society
• Product-based distribution according to labor (overcoming/abolition of the commodity form)
• Completely Planned Economy

Communism

• Single public ownership by entire society
• Product-based distribution accoriding to need primary (distributon according to labor for new products in shorter supply)
• Completely Planned Economy

The usa is still the 2 or third largest manufacturer in the world, it is just all concentrated in high end industrial stuff and pharmaceuticals. The idea that "Chiner stole ALL er jerbs!" is a over exaggeration, a majority of job losses have been to automation. The real big thing us that investmen in NEW low end manufacturing ceased because the yield on capital investment is too low for it in the US.

China is still mostly focused on export, and has no plans to change this. The government doesn't do anything to encourage consumption to boost the economy like is commonly done elsewhere. Consumption naturally went up as production did, of course. Advertising and media influence has helped this. But the government is trying to reduce that media influence.

Many western economists hilariously claim that Chinese domestic consumption is too low to sustain the economy, and therefore it's gonna collapse. Because endless growth is the only way to survive apparently.

I think you are wrong mainly in that you assume China is trying to go out of their way to humiliate the West. I don't think that's the case. China just wants to build a comfortable life without doing it at the expense of other people.

The goal is to get to the point where they can just chill and not care about petty things like that. Economic success is key to that.

No, there was never a plan. Deng just took a huge step backwards. Cant blame it all on him , it just happened because how dire things were at the time. There's probably a timeline where all the revolutions and social movements in the 60s around the world triumphed and communism is achieved by the 21st century, but the reality is they fell apart one by one, the bureaucracy in the Soviet Union grew corrupt after Khurschev replaced Stalin, and China was isolated with both the Soviets and the US turned against them. The ambitious project of the cultural revolution lost steam as Mao grew complacent in his final days and eventually died. The guys leftover looked at the situation and basically said "yeah no more of this bs, lets try capitalism."

From that point on, China basically completely capitulated both ideologically and economically to the global capitalist order. There was literally a documentary that aired on national tv talking about how Chinese civilization was inherently inferior and had to learn from "oceanic" civilizations such as Europe and do capitalism. Really disgusting stuff. This eventually culminated in the events at Tiananmen square which were fortunately dealt with by Deng. One of the few good things he did. If those students got their way, China would look like one of the former soviet states today.

I think what's going on today in China can be explained mostly by the rise of the national bourgeois. Quite frankly, I am not sure about their nature and whether they are a progressive or reactionary force, probably a mix of the two. They are leaching off the workers and the peasants, but at the same time they are also exploited by the first world. The best of this class end up in the party and various sectors of civil society, while the worst of them try to climb up the ladder of exploitation by immigrating to the west/sending their children to go to college there.

Also unclear is what role the party has played within all of this and how much control they actually have. Id say with what Xi has been doing, I see a glimmer of hope, but theres a very long way to go. All in all, it's an extremely complex situation that cannot be reduced down to "China good" or "China bad". The west's obsession to try to paint a country of 1.4 billion as a monolith is nothing but orientalism.

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4 will definitely not happen.

future future is an ongoing process now. Steadily encroaching on private elements (party elements in sector, heavy regulation) is a gradual process that makes it so by the time they hit near future they can have a smoother road cracking down gradually and efficiently to slice the remaining hydra heads of capital within their barriers. Capital, having consolidated the means of production in a socialist country, then finds itself irreparably weakened as China continues down the socialist road.

China is approaching the transition from state capitalism to socialism as a gradient. By the time they are in effect, "socialist", it won't feel like a major transition.

how does 4 help China when capitalism's contradictions will, without intervention, cause America to be increasingly unable to respond to crises like extreme weather events (floods, wildfires, freezing Texas power outages) and disease (COVID-19, COVID-22, the deadly plague of 2026 that was transmitted by lifted 4x4 trucks)

China is our trading partner and will remain our trading partner. If that relationships fails then the west would resort to a wartime economy and life will be hard for everyone.