There’s plenty in the propaganda feed about “low Russian morale” and I think that it may be exaggerated, but it’s believable. They’re legit dying and I don’t have a fucking clue, but this is a war with no inspiration for the infantry grunts. It’s obviously political, and they are dying at the hands of a bourgeois enemy for the cause of the Russian bourgeoisie. People can be two-minded for sure, but they also tend to know when things are just hot air, even if they can’t put their finger on it (Hypernormalization). If they don’t believe in what they’re doing, then it’s just a matter of time before you cascade into chaos.
obviously the russians are tight lipped about casualties but i think the west is hooting and hollering without much evidence. all indications are that hit and run javelin attacks on recce units are causing some vehicles here and there to be disabled but so far i haven't seen any evidence of pitched battles or russian columns being smoked in their entirety.
what I have seen so far is a 3 part clip of an ukranian brigade on the move where everything was completely wiped. a platoon of tanks, field kitchen, headquarters, workshops etc. the scale of destruction was insane. and yet somehow that one never gets seen on twitter.
the other sign you can point to the utter lack of defence from the UA is that they still haven't forced russians off highways yet. the only good defense strategy for them was to deny RF forces at critical highway chokepoints and force their wheeled/tracked vehicles into the mud to bog them down. note where all the destroyed russian vehicles are- they are literally all along the highway or some other paved road.
On one hand, I know I’m a dumbass with an internet connection so anything I have to say on the topic is nothing more than speculation, but at the same time I’m wondering if this is just what a total global-scale fuckup looks like.
On the other hand, the russians are about to pocket 40% of the UA trapped in the east with a pincer move. For some reason force disposition maps never seem to make it on social media, largely because people would have to answer uncomfortable questions about the pocket that is just a few days away from being formed in the east to encircle a field army-sized ukrainian defense
American Russian military experts like Rob Lee and Michael Kofman have been echoing that sentiment from your last paragraph. I think we will have much more clarity by the end of the week if not the next couple days on what Russia’s first stage objective is here.
Right, thanks for the reply doctor! It definitely feels like Russia's going to get this done, I just have a bit of a feeling that Ukrainians might be able to grind this down to a molasses pace, but I suppose that's only natural anyway, they've had a few days to regroup. Russia is going to start to see some casualties either way, but obviously video clips and propaganda reports aren't evidence of what's actually going on hour by hour.
I just have a bit of a feeling that Ukrainians might be able to grind this down to a molasses pace,
any hope for that faded when they let russians control their highways lmao. first rule of armored warfare is control of communications and transportation nodes. everyone just ignored that the russians were able to drive today a 3.5 mile long convoy of mechanized infantry and heavy armor on the road to kiev without even token opposition.
to use a ham-fisted gaming analogy: the first person shooter addicts and hearts of iron players will see the russian tanks burning and think it is a sign of victory since they can't imagine warfare as anything other than a personal affair or abstracted entirely from battlefield tactics.
the wargamer who spends a lot of time moving units around a hexboard will want to know what happened to the rest of the armored column! the fact that we haven't seen any videos from UA contact with russian armor in a pitched battle suggests to me they're losing all of them!!
i'm too old for that shit, my choice is steel panthers MBT from the mid 1990s before most hexbear users were even born probably:
https://www.shrapnelgames.com/Camo_Workshop/MBT/MBT_page.html
It’s funny since there’s a video where convo of Russian infantry ride along the road, and stop when civilians cross, respect traffic rule. Like a normal drive, lmao
It's an interesting app, probably the best user experiences out there, but pretty shady from a privacy standpoint, though it is capable of E2E encryption. I've used it before and enjoyed it though.
obviously the russians are tight lipped about casualties but i think the west is hooting and hollering without much evidence. all indications are that hit and run javelin attacks on recce units are causing some vehicles here and there to be disabled but so far i haven't seen any evidence of pitched battles or russian columns being smoked in their entirety.
what I have seen so far is a 3 part clip of an ukranian brigade on the move where everything was completely wiped. a platoon of tanks, field kitchen, headquarters, workshops etc. the scale of destruction was insane. and yet somehow that one never gets seen on twitter.
the other sign you can point to the utter lack of defence from the UA is that they still haven't forced russians off highways yet. the only good defense strategy for them was to deny RF forces at critical highway chokepoints and force their wheeled/tracked vehicles into the mud to bog them down. note where all the destroyed russian vehicles are- they are literally all along the highway or some other paved road.
On the other hand, the russians are about to pocket 40% of the UA trapped in the east with a pincer move. For some reason force disposition maps never seem to make it on social media, largely because people would have to answer uncomfortable questions about the pocket that is just a few days away from being formed in the east to encircle a field army-sized ukrainian defense
American Russian military experts like Rob Lee and Michael Kofman have been echoing that sentiment from your last paragraph. I think we will have much more clarity by the end of the week if not the next couple days on what Russia’s first stage objective is here.
Right, thanks for the reply doctor! It definitely feels like Russia's going to get this done, I just have a bit of a feeling that Ukrainians might be able to grind this down to a molasses pace, but I suppose that's only natural anyway, they've had a few days to regroup. Russia is going to start to see some casualties either way, but obviously video clips and propaganda reports aren't evidence of what's actually going on hour by hour.
any hope for that faded when they let russians control their highways lmao. first rule of armored warfare is control of communications and transportation nodes. everyone just ignored that the russians were able to drive today a 3.5 mile long convoy of mechanized infantry and heavy armor on the road to kiev without even token opposition.
to use a ham-fisted gaming analogy: the first person shooter addicts and hearts of iron players will see the russian tanks burning and think it is a sign of victory since they can't imagine warfare as anything other than a personal affair or abstracted entirely from battlefield tactics.
the wargamer who spends a lot of time moving units around a hexboard will want to know what happened to the rest of the armored column! the fact that we haven't seen any videos from UA contact with russian armor in a pitched battle suggests to me they're losing all of them!!
Have you played the video game Mobius Front '83 by chance?
i'm too old for that shit, my choice is steel panthers MBT from the mid 1990s before most hexbear users were even born probably: https://www.shrapnelgames.com/Camo_Workshop/MBT/MBT_page.html
Yo this game looks cool, I might have to give it a try
steep learning curve but its still a lot of fun. and the free version comes with 100s of painstakingly modeled units
Is it turn based? Looks cool as hell, added it to my list.
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It’s funny since there’s a video where convo of Russian infantry ride along the road, and stop when civilians cross, respect traffic rule. Like a normal drive, lmao
link?
trigger warning: there's a bunch of charred and not so charred corpses
it's on telegram. the little shit that does make it out of russian forces is all hosted there and not twitter.
thanks, and thanks for the warning
also this war is the first time i've heard of Telegram
It's an interesting app, probably the best user experiences out there, but pretty shady from a privacy standpoint, though it is capable of E2E encryption. I've used it before and enjoyed it though.
Where would one find those maps?
The one from the Russian invasion wiki page is linked by this thread.
Can you link a force disposition map that shows this?
Here's one don't ask me how accurate it is, it's a whole lot of :shrug-outta-hecks:
yeah that's the one from the wikipedia page for the invasion, it's linked on this thread too
Here's one about the pockets