Oh shit, no Muskyy noo, my free speecherinoo.
Oh so he created a reason for himself to sell a chunk of his massively overpriced company just a few weeks before the global stock market started tanking that’s really interesting timing proving once again
the game is riggedthe financial genius of Elon Musk.it's only insider trading if someone wants to punish you for it
Can some law nerd tell me the difference between “insider trading” and just like, “hearing shit”? Like if I get drunk with some stock bro in he mentions that his company is buying another company or some shit is me going home and changing my investment portfolio “insider trading”? What demarcates info that’s just general public knowledge and secret shit that you shouldn’t be telling people about?
Basically if you have a privileged role and having that role is the source of your information.
So if you’re the company accountant and you know the company is about to miss a loan repayment well you only know that because you’re an accountant for the company, an insider, so you cannot act on that information. Likewise people on the board know the financials and will know that, eg that new merger just fell through so you know the bad news days or even weeks before the market. You only have this knowledge because you’re an insider.
But let’s say you live near the Tesla factory and you notice, just because you’re observant, that the number of trucks flowing to and from the factory have greatly diminished and you think to yourself “well that’s not good for Tesla” then you’re not an insider you’re just an observant person and can act on that.
Note that congress explicitly give themselves an exception and are completely legally allowed to trade on the enormous volume of insider information they have. It doesn’t matter if it’s top secret or a bill you’re about to vote on or whatever they are allowed to do it which is how a lot of them are rich.
It also counts if you're insider trading if someone with privileged information tells you to.
So if you get drunk with the company accountant and he tells you the company is about to miss a loan repayment, acting on that is insider trading.
So what’s the line between when info becomes public knowledge and when it’s something secret that trading on it is still “insider”? Like does it have to be reported to some agency first? Like if there was info that was kinda public but most people didn’t pay attention to it or knew how to interpret it correctly, but I did because of my position as an insider, would that still be insider trading?
Ideally it’s announced by the company in some formal way. Commonly there will be a quarterly update which includes important information which will affect the share price. It can also be that it leaks out and becomes sufficiently widely known that it’s considered to have become public, but the threshold isn’t clearly defined and you need a judge to work it out.
Basically once a member of the public reasonably could be aware of it then it’s public knowledge.
Maybe it’s more clear this way:
There is no such thing as “kinda public”. It’s a binary.
If an interested and observant member of the public can know, not merely surmise or guess but know, once the information is publicly available then it’s public.
It doesn’t depend on how many people know, it depends on how they can be expected to be able to know.
I think, I speculate, that he likely had access to much more information than is accessible to mere mortals about how the mix of post-Covid inflation, sanctions against Russia, gas and energy markets going nuts, and food supply hitting a sharp contraction as likely signs the global economy was about to get absolutely shredded. Combining this knowledge with the obvious fact Tesla is massively overvalued he figured it was a safe time to cash in.
I think it's a coincidence. Stocks like Tesla have taken a beating since November. Cheap investment money is going away and everyday that section feels more and more pain. Even companies that are "objectively" sound and valuable have lost a lot of value. He saw that and wanted to cash in near the top because it may be years of going sideways or down. That coincided with what the person you replied to mentioned, an economic downturn.
If he has variable interest rates on any of his loans/leverage then that's going to bite him too.
The point about valuable and digital companies is quite true. Today we saw absurd swings up for digital currency and adjacent companies.
it's not really so much a prediction as seeing the writing on the wall. production is down, inflation is up, and the fed is raising interests rates. the big hedge funds all sold back in February and started holding cash while they waited for bonds to raise. in a lot of ways, we're going into a planned recession. the question is if everything tanks for years or if we just kinda hold stagnant for a while.
He tried to feed the twitter bird some slurp juices, it didn't go to well...
the bank is mad that he is worth 20% less than he was a month ago and want to renegotiate the deal
Nah. IMO he never intended for the deal to happen (unless he got some other suckers to finance most of it), he just used this as a pretext to sell Tesla stock near ATH.
citing uncertainty about the number of fake accounts on the platform.
uh huh.
hes doing the thing some here predicted, pretend he will buy twitter so he can sell tesla stock without tanking the value, then back out
i'm dumb, why does pretending to buy twitter allow him to sell off telsa? as a pretext to get liquidity to buy twitter?
if he sells off 1 billion in tesla stocks without reason it scares all the other investors into thinking something is wrong and elon is abandoning ship, stock tanks as everyone jumps ship with him. if he claims he is buying twitter the 1 billion stock selloff is expected and doesnt cause a panic selloff, and once hes got his billion out he can let the deal fall through and blame the other party.
okay, sounds like i got there.
so, uh, should we be shorting tesla?
probably dont go fucking with stonks, dont wanna end up like the crypto dorks yesterday.
sure, but i wouldn't hate to be the crypto dorks of ten years ago
On the one hand it's valued as being worth more than any car company that actually produces decent cars in large numbers, so it's completely inflated. On the other hand... line must go up. So you probably won't be able to time it if it does dive.
so, uh, should we be shorting tesla?
Bit late for that. It lost 20%+ the last week, but is rising again - and since the Tesla stock price is not completely rational it is quite dangerous to interact with it with leverage.
I wonder if the rich are rich enough that they could just draw our money whatever we do on the stock market. If so it would mean:
Where does that lead you? Back to me :lenin-laugh:
isn't tesla fucking tanking right now anyway? wasn't it down like 35% in a day?
Of course it is. The dude never had any intention of actually going through with this lol. Especially with the stonks tanking at the moment
I doubt it will be, but I hope this ends up being one of those situations where the deal breaks with such animosity that multiple parties sue the shit out of each other and fuck up their access to credit, because the dark cloud of pending litigation makes them potentially radioactive.
I worked at this resort once where like some fairly rich guy worked out a deal to sell the place to a megarich guy and ended up losing his mind at a crucial moment in the deal, and the whole thing has become this albatross that no one makes any money on, but no one wants to walk away from, and other investors won't go near. and it's gone on like this for like 15 years, with different parties airing their rivals' shady histories in public. shits hilarious.
I'll laugh so hard if it doesn't happen and he was just doing this to drive up tesla stock
:so-true: I can't wait for my Musk(tm) Twitter brain implant!
Daaamn imagine if you could receive Musk Tweets directly to your brain at any time!!!
