While I've honestly been trying to tune out the election shit, I was streaming the world series feed (through completely legal means I can assure you) from a Fox station in Florida. Much to my dismay, I was completely bombarded by these ads saying Trump supports amendement 3 which would legalize weed in the state. I scroll on social media for like 5 mins later on and I see this fucker on Joe Rogan.
Its a pretty clear attempt at targeting independent socially moderate/liberalish fiscally conservative independent bros that, honestly exist and could decide the election if its close. All while Kamala is really leaning into winning over "dick cheney democrats" that dont exist outside of focus groups in the beltway.
Im calling it now. Trumps winning again.
He's gonna win, specifically via Michigan, and the Dems will still learn nothing except "guess we need to go further to the right"
Yeah 538 has slowly been inching towards a more likely Trump win:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Monday it was 50/50. Tuesday it was Trump 51/Harris 49. Right now it's 53/47.
Once again the Democrats are losing the most easily winnable election ever, except this time all they had to do was not support and fund a holocaust.
And even if that's literally all they did, they'd still be to the right of Ronald Reagan.
They're losing ground every day, you'd think they'd realize their strategy was wrong.
Instead they'll double down and move even farther to the right to try and win back the voters they're hemorrhaging.
They were doing so well with the weird thing and then they brought on advisers from the UK Labour party lol
The Labour Party which had the brilliant election strategy of just having Tory policies with a bit more austerity so that the media would finally let the actual Tories collapse and rebuild.
You can note that the dems immediately started hugging bush era republicans and positioning themselves as the "true" republican party, probably hoping for the same thing to happen in the US.
The Labour Party that won 33% of an election that had an almost record-low turnout. lmao.
Yeah, the big difference wasn't people voting more for Labour, but that there was a splinter party and the press was less than completely glowing towards the tories. Also that SNP decided to spontaneously combust.
More people voted for Labour in 2019, an election that I've been told was the worst election ever by very serious Blairites. And even with the lower turnout they only gained 1.5% of the popular vote. They are an exceptionally weak majority party and have already pissed away all the good will they could have had pushing any good policy.
We can only ever expect the managerial class to double-down on mediocrity.
It also played on the innate desire that every democrat has for republicans and bipartisanship. Republicans campaign on getting their (terrible) positions pushed, democrats campaign on their ability to work with the republicans.
The labour party, that lost 3 million votes since the last election cycle and only won because the tories fucked up that badly.
Wow, that's so close that it's basically a toss-up. Of course, the outcome I'm really hoping for is the <1% chance of a 270 split...
I think people forget how many bridges Democrats have burned with voters by repeatedly breaking promises every time they're elected. Add the most obvious fucking genocide to the mix and a population that is sick of their money going to proxy wars and yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they lost.
Imagine losing to Trump, lmao. Hell, imagine losing to him twice. Pathetic.
Trump winning despite having absolutely nothing left in the tank — thus proving that none of the election season song and dance even matters — is the funniest outcome and therefore guaranteed to happen
Turned out, that “Dick Cheney democrats” do exist, but those are the same people as just "democrats"
should've been more of a hint when Kerry ran on administering the wars better instead of an anti-war position
I'm convinced democrats genuinely believe, wholeheartedly, that politics must be a scale from "left to right" within the bounds of America, and meanwhile the republicans are focussed on topics which they find important.
Democrats seem to think that, regardless of the specific topic, a shift right gets more votes for democrats. Like there is a literal line and you pick up more the further right you go, and this in the most literal way you can imagine
Republicans choose topics that fire people up and take the right wing position on them. It's a much more successful method of getting support, and maintaining energy. They don't give a shit about some scale, they just want to do whatever is the option that supports wealth accumulation and imperialism as best as possible. It makes sense, at least, if you're a ghoul.
Democrats try to run on being trusted to understand the scale on which they sit, republicans run on policies they want to do.
It's not the only reason they will win, but it's the one most obvious between the two imperial-fuckers running for president
I think it's simpler than that: their consultant class principally comes from the exact same class as the GOP base, with the exact same material interests and cultural biases, they just think themselves smarter and more elite than the baying hogs they share 99% of their interests and beliefs with. Democrats triangulate as their advisors tell them to, while remaining entirely subservient to Capital.
They have no beliefs or principles other than that managerial technocratic devotion to the status quo and American hegemony, but even there they're so vapid and uninspired they just get led about by grifters and fall into this doublethink of "it's bad for political leadership to lead and try to influence political opinion, so we won't ever do that at all, except it's good to influence political opinion in favor of American capitalist hegemony and the police state and all the atrocity that supports this so we will furiously cleave to that party line and purge any and all dissent."
They have fully rotted away into this entirely hollow shell of managerial technocrats in the past decades as some advancement of gerontocracy and the further maturation of the lobbyist grift complex, to the point that they're not even competent at their cynical hegemony maintenance role anymore.
I fully agree with this in the way that American politics works in reality.
I just think that many democrats genuinely see themselves as the good guys trying to be as far "left" as possible within the bounds of what's politically reasonable. And when you have those in that mindset, and the people choosing to vote, what I was describing is how that phenomenon internally works.
Democrats seem to think that, regardless of the specific topic, a shift right gets more votes for democrats. Like there is a literal line and you pick up more the further right you go, and this in the most literal way you can imagine
There is the unfortunate fact that I do think the American people are just genuinely more right wing on certain topics than we care to admit, I.e. immigration and trans rights. Thing is Harris is just being really willy nilly about what her policies are right now so she's alienating voters on both sides. Trumps explicate about what he wants and so buys loyalty from his base.
There are popular progressive policies Harris could campaign on, like healthcare and abortion, but the Dems don't actually want to do any of that shit.
There is the unfortunate fact that I do think the American people are just genuinely more right wing on certain topics than we care to admit, I.e. immigration and trans rights.
I don't think these reactionary ideas fell out of a coconut tree.
I’m surprised the fascist genocidal settler state is so right wing!
Unless that coconut came with a little note inside of it along with a corporate dark money PAC contribution
I honestly don't know about the trans/immigration thing. Even in a time where people are being bombarded with propaganda, there's still broad support for trans people's right not to be discriminated https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/06/28/americans-complex-views-on-gender-identity-and-transgender-issues/
I think if people were actually educated about medical transition, then they'd support that too.
Migration is more difficult. I can only find studies of dem/gop-voters and I'll give you that most of them are ghouls. According to another PEW study more than half think the "border crisis" has been handled badly https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/06/immigration-attitudes-and-the-2024-election/There's lots of issues with these studies and I don't think the US is in any way non-ghoulish, but I don't think it's as dire as you describe
People are actually a lot more “left wing” on specific policies than it seems, you just wouldn’t know it because the media straight up lies to everyone about it.
I really don't think this is true. People's lived experiences don't direct them to these positions. It's our lying media, and lying politicians who inject this shit into the populace then point to the effects of their bullshit as proof that these are real problems real Americans have issues with.
It's our lying media, and lying politicians who inject this shit into the populace
I don't think this is a very materialist analysis. Media and politicians have always lied, people "fall", or should I say "buy into" those lies when they have a material incentive too.
https://redsails.org/masses-elites-and-rebels/
Acknowledging that the bougeroise manufacture consent through their mouth pieces in media and politics is not anti-materialist. Folks are really struggling and those who control the means of communication direct people to a scapegoat.
turning a big dial taht says "Genocide" on it and constantly looking back at the audience for approval like a contestant on the price is right
I think it’s not that complicated.
She is choosing to side with her corporate political donors over policy that supermajorities of Americans on the right and the left agree with.
Neither Trump nor Kamala care about actual policies that help voters. They care about donor money over everything else.
Trump literally publicly does quid pro quo….. Kamala and all the other corporate dems and republicans do it slightly less obviously. Republicans are way worse on this issue in general, but it’s only a matter of degree.
I don’t think republicans run on any actual policy other than tax cuts, but it’s a great political message to say that you stand with legalization
I'm hoping for the funniest of all outcomes being that Kamala loses the popular vote, but wins the electoral college. And then the second election theft happens, but this time he actually "won" the election.
Nono, funniest outcome is trump winning and biden immediately dying. Leaving harris the presidency for just a few months.
It would be pretty funny if Jimmy Carter outlived Biden you might be on to something.
you make a compelling case.
my only counter argument is that if you look at the 2022 elections and all the referendums on abortion, they all over-performed for democrat and pro-abortion positions. if that happens again (and I think it will because most people have not gotten to respond to the repeal of Roe vs Wade through voting yet) I think Harris will win.
either outcome will be funny though.
The campaign hardly ever mentions abortion it's really strange
they don’t have to anymore. somehow it’s become gospel among libs that the dems will save federal abortion despite all contrary evidence
It's amazing honestly
"We will codify roe v Wade" lol no you won't you literally controlled the presidency and both chambers of the legislature
I dunno, they're not really leaning into abortion as an issue and they've got Kamala saying (about trans rights) that "she'll follow the law." I have a hard time imagining that's not the rhetoric they're gonna carry over for other similar issues - or at least that people won't link it themselves
Abortion is such a slam fucking dunk issue too. Why the fuck is she not screaming about this from the rooftops? Is there a weak point on this issue that we dont know that could be a scandal in bringing up abortion?
They mentioned it a lot at the DNC and there was a couple powerful ads about it recently. I'm not sure why they're not mentioning it more at rallies and stuff, but it does seem to be their main winning issue. Well, now they I think about it, they did bring the woman from one of the ads to one of their recent rallies (a woman who couldn't get an abortion for a baby who couldn't survive and got an infection and may now never get pregnant). I actually think it's enough to carry her over the top, but it'll definitely be closer than it should be.
I was thinking they same, but that means he'll lose because hexbear is never right
I love to be a wonk and care about polls and elections said the person that fucks at parties
I was watching basketball last night and here's how Kamala is going after these voters, by telling them their friends and family can see if they voted on the public voting record.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3dW0UavZ48
I found more info here, sorry about the chud source https://archive.ph/pLGLi
"The more-than-$500,000 ad campaign appears to be targeted exclusively at various metropolitan areas, according to data obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. The bulk of the ads are airing in the Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee markets."
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Bernie went on Joe Rogan, it didn't save him. But i think youre right
Its not Rogan alone.
Its a clear cut general election strategy all around to target a certain type of younger (usually also white) center right independents. The guy who smokes weed, watches MMA, still listens to Eminem, maybe voted for Gary Johnson in 2016 if at all, Says hes socially liberal and fiscally conservative but also hates trans people.
This is a weird non voter demographic that presidential candidates usually dont touch with a ten foot pole. This definitely favors Trump in an extremely close race where any little bit could make the difference. Especially when Kamala is going after a group of voters that are already safe dems
Bruh, would get an instance ban from lemmy.world for saying this! lmao
And you were totally fucking right, brother. I appreciate your balls for calling it before others did, and standing against the naysayers. Good on ya, mate!
