Just spoke to my mom who is a centrist liberal and never talks to me about politics. she said “I don’t think I’m going to be voting. I feel sick to my stomach about both these two.”
Two of the easiest elections in the history of this country and the dems just blew em both.
I think the anti-Trump vote barely existed in 2016, it exists now. So Biden could still pull it off, he is still favored IMO.
Wasn’t Hillary’s whole campaign anti-Trump and girl bosses who were anti-Trump anyways?
The difference is that in 2016 Trump didn't have a terrible 4 year track record that he had to defend and could spin a narrative about being anti-establishment. He can't do that now. The anti-Trump fervor this year is significantly stronger.
Yes, but there wasn't much of an anti-Trump vote in swing states. The people who hated both candidate hugely split for Trump and won him the election. It will be the opposite this time.
I don’t trust people to vote for a candidate because they don’t like the other one. I’ve never seen it be a winning strategy.
Either way we will continue to take it to the streets and fuck the police.
It's not a winning strategy, it's just that most people do what you do in a typical top 2 electoral system. Vote your conscience in the primary and then vote for the person closer to you ideologically in the general.
You'd be hard pressed to find any credible institution who's opinion isn't that Biden will win.
The broad media opinion tends to still be more skeptical than it was in 2016, back then it was inevitable that Clinton would win. This time it's much more "Trump could still win, but it looks good for Biden".
I'm convinced that Biden is going to win for two reasons:
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Facebook and Twitter covered up that Hunter story in a matter of hours. Why do this unless the oligrachs have chosen Biden as their puppet?
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Fining people for not being able to afford for-profit health insurance during a pandemic is peak America.
I love that the individual mandate is the hill that Biden is trying to die on. It's already been struck down by a 5-4 conservative Supreme Court (and will be challenged almost immediately if if passes to go up against a 6-3 SC), it's extremely unpopular, and it's just downright cruel. The perfect encapsulation of Third Way democrat policy.
Yeah, that is just going to make Obamacare even more hated than it already was; setting the stage for the next firebrand fascist to talk about healthcare, who will likely take M4A up and turn it into a twisted and warped version like 'Medicare For Americans' and will be part of their winning platform in 2024.
This is wishful thinking. The next firebrand fascist won't even bother with anything like that because they don't have any competition or pressure. The 1930s fascists had pressure from the Communists as well as just a more conscious working class in general. An analogy for our situation would be if the Weimar Republic banned the KPD all together and the SPD was a fringe movement (like the DSA/justice Dems are right now)
Private health insurance is far too valuable as a disciplinary tool for Capital to ever give up that battle. The thought of Medicare for All is scarier than card check or rent control for business owners. It's up there with a public bank and a government housing program in terms of "send in the CIA for a coup".
Have you read about fascist parties from the past? They usually incorporate policies that would be socialist, as a way of garnering support. Fascism did not arise and become popular just based off nationalism.
I can definitely see them acknowledging healthcare and pushing a warped version of it. It's not wishful thinking. M4A is the most popular policy in America and it's only a matter of time the fascists realize this and move towards it.
We're headed to the point where naked class conflict is all that will be left. The wealth inequality is the highest it's ever been in US history and Biden has established himself that he will be the austerity president. As we approach the point where identity politics and empty platitudes are no longer working, the class war is all that is going to be left, and yes, the next firebrand fascist that emerges is going to take advantage of that. The fascists will take the class war and talk about it from a warped context of blaming immigrants, criminals and the protesters for why the average person has a decreased standard of living.
An analogy for our situation would be if the Weimar Republic banned the KPD all together and the SPD was a fringe movement (like the DSA/justice Dems are right now)
That's a poor analogy because Germany actually had a communist party. The US don't. The left here is very very small and I don't count DSA as them. There is no potential vanguard or revolutionary left here. The left has spent most of their time infighting with identity politics and other bullshit while routinely ignoring the working class at every given opportunity. A bunch of college kids online arguing about China and North Korea aren't going to lead a revolution.
There is no working class movement here at all, and that's the short answer why the US is never going to have a revolution. The fascists are more organized and unlike the majority of the left, they actually talk to disgruntled military vets and working class people, recruiting them to their causes.
We are absolutely going to see another reactionary far right populist movement arise as a result of Biden's austerity and it will come in the form of the next fascist talking about wealth inequality and the class war. Unless the left actually pulls their heads out of their asses and starts focusing on a working class movement, we're going to be in for some serious pain in the next 3-5 years.
My point is that the fascist paries of the past only incorporated Socialist-style policies because of the existence of Communist parties, the USSR, and more militant workers in general.
Under the current conditions, there's no reason for a fascist party to incorporate Socialist policies. They don't win any support that way. Why on Earth would Trump's successor run on Medicare for All? Would you vote for a fascist who promised M4A? Would anyone you know? No, so why would they ever piss off their business owning base?
That’s a poor analogy because Germany actually had a communist party. The US don’t. The left here is very very small and I don’t count DSA as them. There is no potential vanguard or revolutionary left here.
Again, to reiterate, this is WHY the coming fascists will not run on M4A or any other socialist policy.
They've already started the class war and inequality talk. The way that this gets framed in 2020 is by talking about how China and immigrants "take jobs" and "take industry". The implication is that Americans will get healthcare and comfortable lives if the WORK for it. There's going to never be a fascist who campaigns on "free stuff" like M4A.
Unless there's a competing left-wing alternative, fascists have no reason to promote genuinely populist programs. This is the same reason why Trump never mentioned "Trump care" or legal weed, or any other Leftie fantasy. He doesn't gain any votes by offering those things
Facebook and Twitter covered up that Hunter story in a matter of hours.
Ya but as a result it proliferated even further because of it
Nah I thibk it wouldve gotten about this far either way.
I think it's just shifted the demographics it hit a bit.
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Hmmmm that is a good point. They really didn’t like Hillary so when it was anti trump the country was like we don’t like you either, but they’re hoping enough people can stomach Biden. I could see it. What a thing to ride on though.
My mom is pro-allende and she just wants Trump to win to see the meltdown of the democrats
There's more early voting in states like PA and MI, where they recently made it easier to vote before election day. Early returns aren't favorable for Dems, though, and Republicans at least claim that they are more likely to vote on election day. Republicans have been registering a lot of new voters, supposedly anyway. Trump screaming about Dems stuffing ballot boxes is probably projection to an extent.
Yup. They never talk about the close races in the swing states.
I think Biden is going to win and probably in a blowout. He'll win the EC which is all that matters.
Over 30 million people have already voted early by mail in ballots. I am sure most of that is going to Biden.
We just have to face it; Trump is unpopular within the establishment and with the ruling class. Yes, they benefit from him, but he has caused them more pain than they wanted. Trump has ripped the mask off the empire and shown the entire country the real face of our government and what America is all about. They desperately want to put the mask back on with a Democrat, but I'm not even sure Biden can accomplish that cause he is so out in the open about how right wing he is and you see it with how he don't even pay lip service to popular ideas, he has to shout them down. The only difference is, under Biden the media will stop covering things that outrage people and they'll move to normalize it, much like they did during the Obama era. But will this work at restoring liberalism? That's the big question and the answer is probably no. Cause people have had enough of the system and neoliberalism, they're slowly awakening and realizing how fucked they are.
Only 1 in every 3 generals of the military supports Trump. That's low for a Republican president. And no, don't give me any of this stupid bullshit about how "Actually, Trump is anti-war! They hate him cause he isn't invading countries left and right!" it's not that simple. Trump managed to piss off the Pentagon back in June when he was trying to push for martial law at the height of the riots. There were rumblings of anger when he moved troops to the US-Mexican border, and none of this is counting all the other dumb shit he has done with the military and his stunts. They don't like him as much as people think.
The riots back in June scared the living shit out of the ruling class. This was evident with all the corporations turning Black Lives Matter into a trendy marketing slogan and all the empty talks about ending racism you see in advertising now. It scared them cause it showed that people are really pissed off and don't believe in the system anymore. They have to save face by turning it back over to Team Blue and trying to restore liberalism. Will it work? Probably not, but that's what they're trying to do. They can't have millions of people out marching and protesting again. Hurts their profits and shatters the illusion of America being a quote on quote 'democracy'.
None of this counts Trump's poor COVID response which is the real thing that is sinking him. Republicans turned wearing a fucking mask into a culture war talking point, and Trump's last 3 weeks since becoming infected, have pretty much sunk him with the poor COVID response. That stupid mother fucker couldn't even take advantage of the situation when libs were crying over him and wishing him well. He just had to play the tough guy to his dumbass base and rush himself out. That will come back and bite him in the ass.
As for Biden, he will have a year to figure out the situation we're in. The highest unemployment numbers and worst economy since the great depression. He'll have exactly a year to make progress and fix this. When he don't, you're going to see the shit hit the fan fast with the next reactionary far right populist movement that arises as a backlash to his austerity.
The amount of voter suppression in key states is genuinely disturbing to me. I don't know why people are voting early- wouldn't it be easier to count them later (ie, let the media decide who wins based on 'Irl' voting).
Counterpoint as mentioned by Chapo is the idea that the military elite/CIA/Deep State thought they could 'endure' Trump, but he wasn't nearly as keen to keep the wheels moving overseas. So whatever control they have they'll probably utilise it. I don't imagine Fox etc NOT calling the election early/forcing all other media stations to fall in line 2000 style.
I watched 2016 live out of pure curiosity, but 2020 will genuinely be must watch tv. So much important shit will happen so quickly, as opposed to 2016 where both HRC fucking bailed on her convention and Trump arrived late af to his convention.
My parents are liberal Clinton-stans in a swing state, and I don't think I've heard them mention Biden once this election cycle. I'm sure they are going to vote, but the supposed enthusiasm is not there.
Anyone who supposes enthusiasm for Biden is very far removed from reality.
I think the Democrats are going to fall ass backwards into a victory, but they're gonna bomb when it comes to the midterms
